逻辑回归模型在玉树地震滑坡危险性评价中的应用与检验
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摘要
2010年4月14日07时49分(北京时间),青海省玉树县发生了Ms7.1级大地震。作者基于高分辨率遥感影像解译与现场调查验证的方法,圈定了2036处本次地震诱发滑坡。这些滑坡受地震地表破裂控制强烈,规模相对较小,常常密集成片分布。滑坡类型多样,以崩塌型滑坡为主,还包括滑动型、流滑型、碎屑流型、复合型等类型的滑坡。本文基于地理信息系统(GIS)与遥感(RS)技术,应用逻辑回归模型开展玉树地震滑坡危险性评价,并对结果合理性进行检验。应用GIS技术建立玉树地震滑坡灾害及相关滑坡影响因子空间数据库,选择高程、斜坡坡度、斜坡坡向、斜坡曲率、与水系距离、坡位、断裂、地层岩性、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、公路、同震地表破裂、地震动峰值加速度(PGA)共12个因子作为玉树地震滑坡影响因子,在GIS平台下将这些因子专题图层栅格化。应用逻辑回归模型得到每个因子分级的回归系数,然后建立滑坡危险性指数分布图。利用玉树地震滑坡空间分布图对滑坡危险性指数图进行检验,正确率达到83.21%。滑坡危险性分级结果表明,在占研究区总面积4.97%的"很高危险度"的较小范围内,实际发育滑坡数量为766个,占总滑坡面积的比例高达37.62%,表明地震滑坡危险性评价结果良好。不同危险性级别的滑坡点密度统计结果表明,滑坡点密度随着危险性级别的升高而非常迅速的升高。
At 07: 49(Beijing time)on April 14,2010,a catastrophic earthquake with Ms 7.1 struck Yushu County,Qinghai Province,China.2036 landslides were interpreted from aerial photographs and remote sensing images,verified by selected field checking.The spatial distribution of the landslides was evidently strongly controlled by the locations of the main surface fault ruptures.The landslides commonly occurred close together.Most of the landslides were small.The landslides were of various types.They were mainly shallow,disrupted landslides,but also included rock falls,deep-seated landslides,liquefied landslides,and compound landslides.The aim of this study was to apply and validate logistic regression model for the Yushu earthquake triggered landslide hazard mapping.The Geographic Information Systems(GIS) and Remote Sensing(RS)technologies were used.A spatial database was developed and analyzed using GIS technology.It includes the landslides and associated controlling parameters which may have influence on the occurrence of landslides..The twelve factors that influence landslide occurrence were created in raster data format base on GIS platform.They include elevation,slope angle,slope aspect,slope curvature,slope position,drainages,lithology,faults,roads,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),co-seismic main surface fault-ruptures,and peak ground acceleration(PGA).the coefficients of the evaluation variables were estimated using logistic regression model and were used to calculate the landslide hazard index for the entire study area within a GIS environment.The validation result showed a success rate of 83.21% between the hazard map and the locations of Yushu earthquake triggered landslides.The landslide hazard assessment rank result showed that the"very high hazard"level covers about 4.97% of the total study area but has a number of 766 landslides(37.62% of the total landslides number),which representing good quality of the landslide hazard map.The sequence of the landslide number density percentage descends expeditiously accompany with the hazard level decreasing.
At 07: 49(Beijing time)on April 14,2010,a catastrophic earthquake with Ms 7.1 struck Yushu County,Qinghai Province,China.2036 landslides were interpreted from aerial photographs and remote sensing images,verified by selected field checking.The spatial distribution of the landslides was evidently strongly controlled by the locations of the main surface fault ruptures.The landslides commonly occurred close together.Most of the landslides were small.The landslides were of various types.They were mainly shallow,disrupted landslides,but also included rock falls,deep-seated landslides,liquefied landslides,and compound landslides.The aim of this study was to apply and validate logistic regression model for the Yushu earthquake triggered landslide hazard mapping.The Geographic Information Systems(GIS) and Remote Sensing(RS)technologies were used.A spatial database was developed and analyzed using GIS technology.It includes the landslides and associated controlling parameters which may have influence on the occurrence of landslides..The twelve factors that influence landslide occurrence were created in raster data format base on GIS platform.They include elevation,slope angle,slope aspect,slope curvature,slope position,drainages,lithology,faults,roads,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),co-seismic main surface fault-ruptures,and peak ground acceleration(PGA).the coefficients of the evaluation variables were estimated using logistic regression model and were used to calculate the landslide hazard index for the entire study area within a GIS environment.The validation result showed a success rate of 83.21% between the hazard map and the locations of Yushu earthquake triggered landslides.The landslide hazard assessment rank result showed that the"very high hazard"level covers about 4.97% of the total study area but has a number of 766 landslides(37.62% of the total landslides number),which representing good quality of the landslide hazard map.The sequence of the landslide number density percentage descends expeditiously accompany with the hazard level decreasing.
引文
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[17]许冲,徐锡伟,于贵华.玉树地震滑坡分布调查及其特征与形成机制[J].地震地质,2012,34(1):47～62.Xu Chong,Xu Xiwei,Yu Guihua.Study on the characteristics,mechanism,and spatial distribution of Yushu earthquake triggeredlandslides.Seismology and Geology,2012,34(1):47～62.
[18]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.GIS支持下基于层次分析法的汶川地震区滑坡易发性评价[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(S2):3978～3985.Xu Chong,Dai Fuchu,Yao Xin,et al.GIS-based landslide sus-ceptibility assessment using analytical hierarchy process in Wen-chuan earthquake region.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,2009,28(S2):3978～3985.
[19]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.基于GIS与确定性系数分析方法的汶川地震滑坡易发性评价[J].工程地质学报,2010,18(1):15～26.Xu Chong,Dai Fuchu,Yao Xin,et al.Study on Wenchuan earth-quake-induced landslide susceptibility evaluation based on Gisplatform and certainty factor analysis method.Journal of Engineer-ing Geology,2010,18(1):15～26.
[20]Xu XW,Yu GH,Sun XZ.Yushu earthquake slip:Implication ofgreat earthquake migration along boundary fault system of BayanHar block,Tibetan Plateau.American Geophysical Union,FallMeeting 2010,2010,abstract#T22A-04.
[21]Pan J,Li H,Xu Z,Li N,Wu F,Guo R,Zhang W.Surface rupturecharacteristics and rupture mechanics of the Yushu earthquake(Ms7.1),14/04/2010.American Geophysical Union,Fall Meet-ing 2010,2010,abstract#T54B-08.
[22]张军龙,陈长云,胡朝忠,等.玉树Ms7.1地震地表破裂带及其同震位移分布[J].地震,2010,30(3):1～12.Zhang Junlong,Chen Changyun,Hu Chaozhong,et al.Surfacerupture and coseismic displacement of the Yushu Ms7.1 earth-quake,China.Earthquake,2010,30(3):1～12.
[23]Weiss AD.Topographic position and landforms analysis.2006.ht-tp:∥www.jennessent.com/downloads/tpi-poster-tnc_18x22.p.
[2]USGS,Magnitude 6.9-southern Qinghai,China,2010 April1323:49:38 UTC.2010,http:∥earthquake.usgs.gov/earth-quakes/eqinthenews/2010/us2010vacp/.
[3]殷跃平,张永双,马寅生,等.青海玉树Ms7.1级地震地质灾害主要特征[J].工程地质学报,2010,18(3):289～296.Yin Yueping,Zhang Yongshuang,Ma Yinsheng,et al.Research onmajor characteristics of geohazards induced by the Yushu Ms7.1earthquake.Journal of Engineering Geology,2010,18(3):289～296.
[4]殷跃平,田廷山,李文渊,等.青海玉树地震地质灾害调查[R].2010,http:∥www.gcdz.org/CN/article/downloadArticle-File.do?attachType=PDF&id=8550.Yin Yueping,Tian Tingshan,Li Wenyuan,et al.Investigation onYushu Earthquake Triggered Geological Hazards.2010,http:∥www.gcdz.org/CN/article/downloadArticleFile.do?attachType=PDF&id=8550.
[5]赵家绪,李玉军,张力征,等.青海玉树“4.14”地震灾区地质灾害应急排查报告[R].2010.Zhao Jiaxu,Li Yujun,Zhang Lizheng,et al.Report of EmergencyInvestigation on“4.14”Yushu Earthquake Triggered GeologicalHazards.2010.
[6]Pradhan B,Talib JA,Lee S.Application of remote sensing data indetermining regional landslide hazard analysis by using logistic re-gression model and GIS.27th Asian Conference on Remote Sensing(ACRS2006),2006.
[7]Pradhan B,Lee S.Landslide susceptibility assessment and factoreffect analysis:backpropagation artificial neural networks and theircomparison with frequency ratio and bivariate logistic regressionmodelling.Environmental Modelling and Software,2010,25(6):747～759.
[8]Chen ZH,Wang JF.Landslide hazard mapping using logistic re-gression model in Mackenzie valley,Canada.Natural Hazards,2007,42(1):75～89.
[9]YilmazⅠ.Landslide susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio,logistic regression,artificial neural networks and their comparison:A case study from Kat landslides(Tokat—Turkey).Computers andGeosciences,2009,35(6):1125～1138.
[10]Greco R,Sorriso-Valvo M,Catalano E.Logistic Regression analy-sis in the evaluation of mass movements susceptibility:The As-promonte case study,Calabria,Italy.Engineering Geology,2007,89(1-2):47～66.
[11]Thapa PB,Esaki T.GIS-based quantitative landslide hazard pre-diction modelling in natural hillslope,Agra Khola watershed,cen-tral Nepal.Bulletin of the Department of Geology,2007,10:63～70.
[12]Dai FC,Lee CF,Li J,Xu ZW.Assessment of landslide suscepti-bility on the natural terrain of Lantau island,Hong Kong.Environ-mental Geology,2001,40(3):381～391.
[13]Dai FC,Lee CF.Landslide characteristics and slope instabilitymodeling using GIS,Lantau island,Hong Kong.Geomorphology,2002,42(3-4):213～228.
[14]胡德勇,李京,陈云浩,等.GIS支持下滑坡灾害空间预测方法研究.遥感学报[J],2007,11(6):852～859.Hu Deyong,Li Jing,Chen Yunhao,et al.GIS-based landslidespatial prediction methods,a case study in Cameron Highland,Malaysia.Journal of Remote Sensing,2007,11(6):852～859.
[15]李雪平,唐辉明.基于GIS的分组数据Logistic模型在斜坡稳定性评价中的应用.吉林大学学报(地球科学版)[J],2005,35(3):361～365.Li Xueping,Tang Huiming.Application of Gis based grouped datalogistic model in evaluation of slope stability.Journal of Jilin Uni-versity(Earth Science Edition),2005,35(3):361～365.
[16]李雪平,唐辉明.贝叶斯信息标准在滑坡因子敏感性分析中的应用[J].岩土力学,2006,27(8):1393～1397.Li Xueping,Tang Huiming.Application of Bayesian informationcriterion to sensitivity analysis of landslide factor.Rock and SoilMechanics,2006,27(8):1393～1397.
[17]许冲,徐锡伟,于贵华.玉树地震滑坡分布调查及其特征与形成机制[J].地震地质,2012,34(1):47～62.Xu Chong,Xu Xiwei,Yu Guihua.Study on the characteristics,mechanism,and spatial distribution of Yushu earthquake triggeredlandslides.Seismology and Geology,2012,34(1):47～62.
[18]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.GIS支持下基于层次分析法的汶川地震区滑坡易发性评价[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(S2):3978～3985.Xu Chong,Dai Fuchu,Yao Xin,et al.GIS-based landslide sus-ceptibility assessment using analytical hierarchy process in Wen-chuan earthquake region.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics andEngineering,2009,28(S2):3978～3985.
[19]许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.基于GIS与确定性系数分析方法的汶川地震滑坡易发性评价[J].工程地质学报,2010,18(1):15～26.Xu Chong,Dai Fuchu,Yao Xin,et al.Study on Wenchuan earth-quake-induced landslide susceptibility evaluation based on Gisplatform and certainty factor analysis method.Journal of Engineer-ing Geology,2010,18(1):15～26.
[20]Xu XW,Yu GH,Sun XZ.Yushu earthquake slip:Implication ofgreat earthquake migration along boundary fault system of BayanHar block,Tibetan Plateau.American Geophysical Union,FallMeeting 2010,2010,abstract#T22A-04.
[21]Pan J,Li H,Xu Z,Li N,Wu F,Guo R,Zhang W.Surface rupturecharacteristics and rupture mechanics of the Yushu earthquake(Ms7.1),14/04/2010.American Geophysical Union,Fall Meet-ing 2010,2010,abstract#T54B-08.
[22]张军龙,陈长云,胡朝忠,等.玉树Ms7.1地震地表破裂带及其同震位移分布[J].地震,2010,30(3):1～12.Zhang Junlong,Chen Changyun,Hu Chaozhong,et al.Surfacerupture and coseismic displacement of the Yushu Ms7.1 earth-quake,China.Earthquake,2010,30(3):1～12.
[23]Weiss AD.Topographic position and landforms analysis.2006.ht-tp:∥www.jennessent.com/downloads/tpi-poster-tnc_18x22.p.
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