地震预警连续定位方法研究
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摘要
本文首先总结了地震预警系统中采用的一些实时定位方法,随后结合我国地震监测台网实际运行情况,提出了一套从单个台站触发开始逐渐过渡到利用前四台触发信息的完整地震预警连续定位方法.利用福建省地震监测台网记录的68个M3.0级以上地震观测记录,对本文方法的验证结果表明,对于网内地震,采用本文方法的单台定位结果误差均小于为50km,双台定位结果误差均小于35km,三台定位结果误差约为15km,四台定位结果误差约为6km;网外地震的三台、四台定位结果误差均小于30km.推导了采用本文三、四台预警定位方法的误差公式.利用福建地区现有及"十一五"完成后的地震观测台网分别计算得到了定位误差分布图.根据误差分析结果即可对定位结果的可靠性预先做出判断,有利于提高地震预警系统运行的可靠性.
In this paper,the author first summarized real-time location methods applied in earthquake early warning system,then considering the actual situation of seismic monitoring network in our country,we proposed a complete set of location method that continuously locates an earthquake from only one triggered monitoring station to four stations.In order to test the method,we selected 68 earthquakes above magnitude 3.0 recorded by Fujian earthquake monitoring networks.The result shows that,for most in-net earthquakes,the single station method′s location error is all less than 50 km,the two-station′s location error is less than 35 km,the three-station′s location error is about 15 km,and four-station′s location error is about 6 km;for out-net earthquakes,the three or four-station method′s location error all less than 30 km.We deduced the location error estimation function for the method using first three,four station′s information.The distributions of location errors for the present seismic monitoring stations and the new monitoring stations after the "eleventh five-year plan" construction in Fujian region were drawn separately.Based on these analyses,we can make judgment of the location results in advance,and then the reliability of the whole earthquake early warning system can be improved.
In this paper,the author first summarized real-time location methods applied in earthquake early warning system,then considering the actual situation of seismic monitoring network in our country,we proposed a complete set of location method that continuously locates an earthquake from only one triggered monitoring station to four stations.In order to test the method,we selected 68 earthquakes above magnitude 3.0 recorded by Fujian earthquake monitoring networks.The result shows that,for most in-net earthquakes,the single station method′s location error is all less than 50 km,the two-station′s location error is less than 35 km,the three-station′s location error is about 15 km,and four-station′s location error is about 6 km;for out-net earthquakes,the three or four-station method′s location error all less than 30 km.We deduced the location error estimation function for the method using first three,four station′s information.The distributions of location errors for the present seismic monitoring stations and the new monitoring stations after the "eleventh five-year plan" construction in Fujian region were drawn separately.Based on these analyses,we can make judgment of the location results in advance,and then the reliability of the whole earthquake early warning system can be improved.
引文
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[8]Zollo A,Iannaccone G,Manfredi G.Development andexperimentation of a prototype system for seismic earlywarning applications in Campania region(Southern Italy).Workshop on Seismic Early Warning for European Cities(Abstracts),Napoli,Italy,2004.
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[10]Hsiao N C,Wu Y M,Shin T C,et al.Development ofearthquake early warning system in Taiwan.GeophysicalResearch Letters,2009,36:L00B02,doi:10.1029/2008GL036596.
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[12]李山有,金星,马强等.地震预警系统与智能应急控制系统研究.世界地震工程,2004,20(4):21-26.Li S Y,Jin X,Ma Q,et al.Study on earthquake earlywarning system and intelligent emergency controling system.World Earthquake Engineering(in Chinese),2004,20(4):21-26.
[13]朱福祥,郭迅,李山有等.重大工程地震预警初步研究.世界地震工程,2002,18(3):32-36.Zhu F X,Guo X,Li S Y,et al.Preliminary study onearthquake early warning system for significantinfrastructures.World Earthquake Engineering(inChinese),2002,18(3):32-36.
[14]廖旭,黄河.企业地震预警系统应用研究.地震工程与工程振动,2002,22(6):142-149.Liao X,Huang H.Study on earthquake alarm system forenterprises.Earthquake Engineering and EngineeringVibration(in Chinese),2002,22(6):142-149.
[15]李勇.行星地球地震预警系统(测试版)的初步应用.地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1066-1069.Li Y.Elementary applications for a tentative earthquakewarning system upon the planet earth(Test Version).Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2007,22(4):1066-1069.
[16]李勇.行星地球的地震预警系统可监测汶川M8级地震.地球物理学进展,2008,23(3):969-971.Li Y.Possibility to detect Wenchuan M8earthquake by theEarthquake Warning System.Progress in Geophysics(inChinese),2008,23(3):969-971.
[17]Anderson K R.Epicentral location using arrival time order.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1981,70(2):541-545.
[18]Rosenberger A.Arrival-time order location revisited.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2009,99(3):2027-2034,doi:10.1785/0120080270.
[19]Kanamori H.Locating earthquakes with amplitude:application toreal-time seismology.Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica,1993,83(1):264-268.
[20]Zhou H W.Rapid three-dimensional hypocentral determinationusing a master station method.Journal of Geophysical Research,1994,99(B8):15439-15455.
[21]Odaka T,Ashiya K,Tsukada S,et al.A new method ofquickly estimating epicentral distance and magnitude from asingle seismic record.Bulletin of the Seismological Societyof America,2003,93(1):526-532.
[22]Rydelek P,Pujol J.Real-time seismic warning with a two-station subarray.Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica,2004,94(4):1546-1550.
[23]Horiuchi S,Negishi H,Abe K,et al.An automaticprocessing system for broadcasting earthquake alarms.BulletinoftheSeismologicalSocietyofAmerica,2005,95(2):708-718,doi:10.1785/0120030133.
[24]Satriano C,Lomax A,Zollo A.Real-time evolutionaryearthquake location for seismic early warning.Bulletin of theSeismological Society of America,2008,98(3):1482-1494,doi:10.1785/0120060159.
[25]马强.地震预警技术研究及应用[博士论文].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2008.Ma Q.Study an application on earthquake early warning[Ph.D.thesis](in Chinese).Harbin:Institute of EngineeringMechanics,China Earthquake Administration,2008.
[26]林松建,陈为伟,郑师春.福建地区地震震源深度特征的统计分析.地震,2010,30(1):82-89.Lin S J,Chen W W,Zheng S C.Statistical analysis ofearthquake depth distribution in Fujian region.Earthquake(in Chinese),2010,30(1):82-89.
[2]Kamigaichi O,Saito M,Doi K,et al.Earthquake earlywarning in Japan:warning the general public and futureprospects.Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):717-726,doi:10.1785/gssrl.80.5.717.
[3]Kamigaichi O.JMA earthquake early warning.Journal ofJapan Association for Earthquake Engineering,2004,4(3):134-137.
[4]Allen R M,Brown H,Hellweg M,et al.Realtime test ofthe ElarmS earthquake early warning methodology.J.Geophys.Res.,2007,112:B08311.
[5]Wurman G,Allen R M,Lombard P.Toward earthquakeearly warning in northern California.Journal of GeophysicalResearch,2007,112:B08311,doi:10.1029/2006JB004830.
[6]Iglesias A,Singh S K,Santoyo M A,et al.The seismic alertsystem for Mexico City:an evaluation of its performance anda strategy for its improvement.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,2007,97(5):1718-1729.
[7]Erdik M,Fahjan Y,Ozel O,et al.Istanbul earthquake rapidresponse and the early warning system.Bulletin of EarthquakeEngineering,2003,1(1):157-163.
[8]Zollo A,Iannaccone G,Manfredi G.Development andexperimentation of a prototype system for seismic earlywarning applications in Campania region(Southern Italy).Workshop on Seismic Early Warning for European Cities(Abstracts),Napoli,Italy,2004.
[9]Zollo A,Iannaccone G,Lannaccone G,et al.Earthquakeearly warning system in southern Italy:methodologies andperformance evaluation.Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36:L00B07,doi:10.1029/2008GL036689.
[10]Hsiao N C,Wu Y M,Shin T C,et al.Development ofearthquake early warning system in Taiwan.GeophysicalResearch Letters,2009,36:L00B02,doi:10.1029/2008GL036596.
[11]Wu Y M,Teng T L.A virtual subnetwork approach toearthquake early warning.Bulletin of the SeismologicalSociety of America,2002,92(5):2008-2018.
[12]李山有,金星,马强等.地震预警系统与智能应急控制系统研究.世界地震工程,2004,20(4):21-26.Li S Y,Jin X,Ma Q,et al.Study on earthquake earlywarning system and intelligent emergency controling system.World Earthquake Engineering(in Chinese),2004,20(4):21-26.
[13]朱福祥,郭迅,李山有等.重大工程地震预警初步研究.世界地震工程,2002,18(3):32-36.Zhu F X,Guo X,Li S Y,et al.Preliminary study onearthquake early warning system for significantinfrastructures.World Earthquake Engineering(inChinese),2002,18(3):32-36.
[14]廖旭,黄河.企业地震预警系统应用研究.地震工程与工程振动,2002,22(6):142-149.Liao X,Huang H.Study on earthquake alarm system forenterprises.Earthquake Engineering and EngineeringVibration(in Chinese),2002,22(6):142-149.
[15]李勇.行星地球地震预警系统(测试版)的初步应用.地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1066-1069.Li Y.Elementary applications for a tentative earthquakewarning system upon the planet earth(Test Version).Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2007,22(4):1066-1069.
[16]李勇.行星地球的地震预警系统可监测汶川M8级地震.地球物理学进展,2008,23(3):969-971.Li Y.Possibility to detect Wenchuan M8earthquake by theEarthquake Warning System.Progress in Geophysics(inChinese),2008,23(3):969-971.
[17]Anderson K R.Epicentral location using arrival time order.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1981,70(2):541-545.
[18]Rosenberger A.Arrival-time order location revisited.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2009,99(3):2027-2034,doi:10.1785/0120080270.
[19]Kanamori H.Locating earthquakes with amplitude:application toreal-time seismology.Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica,1993,83(1):264-268.
[20]Zhou H W.Rapid three-dimensional hypocentral determinationusing a master station method.Journal of Geophysical Research,1994,99(B8):15439-15455.
[21]Odaka T,Ashiya K,Tsukada S,et al.A new method ofquickly estimating epicentral distance and magnitude from asingle seismic record.Bulletin of the Seismological Societyof America,2003,93(1):526-532.
[22]Rydelek P,Pujol J.Real-time seismic warning with a two-station subarray.Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica,2004,94(4):1546-1550.
[23]Horiuchi S,Negishi H,Abe K,et al.An automaticprocessing system for broadcasting earthquake alarms.BulletinoftheSeismologicalSocietyofAmerica,2005,95(2):708-718,doi:10.1785/0120030133.
[24]Satriano C,Lomax A,Zollo A.Real-time evolutionaryearthquake location for seismic early warning.Bulletin of theSeismological Society of America,2008,98(3):1482-1494,doi:10.1785/0120060159.
[25]马强.地震预警技术研究及应用[博士论文].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2008.Ma Q.Study an application on earthquake early warning[Ph.D.thesis](in Chinese).Harbin:Institute of EngineeringMechanics,China Earthquake Administration,2008.
[26]林松建,陈为伟,郑师春.福建地区地震震源深度特征的统计分析.地震,2010,30(1):82-89.Lin S J,Chen W W,Zheng S C.Statistical analysis ofearthquake depth distribution in Fujian region.Earthquake(in Chinese),2010,30(1):82-89.
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