山西带基于地震对应相关谱的多参数综合方法的应用研究
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摘要
应用基于地震对应相关谱的多参数滑动极值相关度方法对山西地震带及邻区进行时间和空间扫描计算,定量识别和提取该区中强地震前的综合异常时空特征。时间扫描结果显示绝大多数目标地震前均有高值异常出现;空间扫描结果表明中强地震前1年左右震区及其附近区域多参数滑动极值平均概率出现高值异常现象,且异常区域逐渐扩大增强,地震多发生在异常区域内或者附近。中强地震发生后高值异常区逐渐缩小,震后1~2年异常区域基本消失;若高值异常区仍持续发展,可能是后续中强地震的异常反映。
Using the method of multi-parametric moving maximum probability based on earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum,we quantitatively identify and analyze the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of multi-parametric precursory anomalies occurring before moderatestrong earthquakes in the Shanxi rift zone and adjacent regions,and discuss the development of these earthquake precursory anomalies.We established a database of earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum with spatio-temporal attributes after performing retrospective research of earthquakes,and developed extrapolative prediction ability.This study presents a new method for the prediction of moderate-strong earthquakes in the Shanxi rift zone and adjacent regions.Since the time-interval in this study is 12 months,we performed temporal scanning of the multi-parameter earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum in the northern,central,and southern districts of the Shanxi seismic belt.The target earthquake magnitudes in the northern,central,and southern districts of the Shanxi seismic belt were ML≥5.0,ML≥4.5and ML≥4.5,respectively.The selected parameters for the northern district were b value,earthquake absence and frequency,and that for the central and southern districts wereηvalue,b value,and earthquake absence and frequency.The retrospective research period was from 1970 to 2009,and the extrapolative prediction period was from 2010 to September,2013.The results show that during the retrospective research period of 1970 to 2009,seven of the nine major changes in the multi-parametric moving maximum probabilities occurred before the occurrence of the target earthquakes and there were two false predictions in the northern district.There were nine and five major changes in the multi-parametric moving maximum probabilities in the middle and southern districts,respectively,before the target earthquakes.During the extrapolative prediction period,the major change in the multi-parametric moving maximum probability of the northern district corresponds to two ML5.0earthquakes in 2010.There are no obvious anomalies in the central district and ML≥ 4.5earthquakes do not actually occur in this district.A major change in the multi-parametric moving maximum probability in the southern district appears from March,2010 to May,2013,with the possible occurrence of a ML≥4.5earthquake.The study area is the Shanxi rift zone and the adjacent region(33°~42°N,106°~117°E)and the target earthquake magnitude for the study area is ML≥5.0.The retrospective research period is from 1970 to 2009,and the extrapolative prediction period is from 2010 to September,2013.As the studied time-interval is 12 months and the window and step length are 2° × 2°and 0.2°,respectively,we selected b value,and earthquake absence and frequency to perform spatial scanning of the multi-parameter earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum in the study area.The spatial result shows the presence of large anomalies before the occurrence of the target earthquakes in both the retrospective research period and the extrapolative prediction period,and the high anomaly areas gradually reduce and disappear after the earthquakes.The main anomaly characteristics are as follows.There are large anomalies near the epicentral area about one year before the occurrence of moderate-strong earthquakes.The high anomaly areas gradually enlarge and intensify,following which,earthquakes occur.About 1~2years after the moderate-strong earthquakes,the anomalies dissipate,decrease,or disappear.If high anomaly areas continue to be present,they may be the reflection of subsequent moderatestrong earthquakes.
Using the method of multi-parametric moving maximum probability based on earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum,we quantitatively identify and analyze the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of multi-parametric precursory anomalies occurring before moderatestrong earthquakes in the Shanxi rift zone and adjacent regions,and discuss the development of these earthquake precursory anomalies.We established a database of earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum with spatio-temporal attributes after performing retrospective research of earthquakes,and developed extrapolative prediction ability.This study presents a new method for the prediction of moderate-strong earthquakes in the Shanxi rift zone and adjacent regions.Since the time-interval in this study is 12 months,we performed temporal scanning of the multi-parameter earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum in the northern,central,and southern districts of the Shanxi seismic belt.The target earthquake magnitudes in the northern,central,and southern districts of the Shanxi seismic belt were ML≥5.0,ML≥4.5and ML≥4.5,respectively.The selected parameters for the northern district were b value,earthquake absence and frequency,and that for the central and southern districts wereηvalue,b value,and earthquake absence and frequency.The retrospective research period was from 1970 to 2009,and the extrapolative prediction period was from 2010 to September,2013.The results show that during the retrospective research period of 1970 to 2009,seven of the nine major changes in the multi-parametric moving maximum probabilities occurred before the occurrence of the target earthquakes and there were two false predictions in the northern district.There were nine and five major changes in the multi-parametric moving maximum probabilities in the middle and southern districts,respectively,before the target earthquakes.During the extrapolative prediction period,the major change in the multi-parametric moving maximum probability of the northern district corresponds to two ML5.0earthquakes in 2010.There are no obvious anomalies in the central district and ML≥ 4.5earthquakes do not actually occur in this district.A major change in the multi-parametric moving maximum probability in the southern district appears from March,2010 to May,2013,with the possible occurrence of a ML≥4.5earthquake.The study area is the Shanxi rift zone and the adjacent region(33°~42°N,106°~117°E)and the target earthquake magnitude for the study area is ML≥5.0.The retrospective research period is from 1970 to 2009,and the extrapolative prediction period is from 2010 to September,2013.As the studied time-interval is 12 months and the window and step length are 2° × 2°and 0.2°,respectively,we selected b value,and earthquake absence and frequency to perform spatial scanning of the multi-parameter earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum in the study area.The spatial result shows the presence of large anomalies before the occurrence of the target earthquakes in both the retrospective research period and the extrapolative prediction period,and the high anomaly areas gradually reduce and disappear after the earthquakes.The main anomaly characteristics are as follows.There are large anomalies near the epicentral area about one year before the occurrence of moderate-strong earthquakes.The high anomaly areas gradually enlarge and intensify,following which,earthquakes occur.About 1~2years after the moderate-strong earthquakes,the anomalies dissipate,decrease,or disappear.If high anomaly areas continue to be present,they may be the reflection of subsequent moderatestrong earthquakes.
引文
[1]王海涛,王琼.基于地震对应概率谱分析的前兆异常识别研究[J].地震研究,2008,31(4):330-334.WANG Hai-tao,WANG Qiong.Precursor Anomaly Identification Based on Earthquake Corresponding Probability Spectrum Analysis[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2008,31(4):330-334.(in Chinese)
[2]WANG Hai-tao,WANG Qiong TANG Lan-lan.Comprehensive Precursor Anomaly Research Based on Earthquake Corresponding Relevancy Spectrum[J].Earthq Sci,2009,22(6):675-681.
[3]王琼,王海涛,唐兰兰.基于地震对应概率谱的多参数综合异常研究[J].中国地震,2009,25(3):294-302.WANG Qiong,WANG Hai-tao,TANG Lan-lan.Research on Multi-parameter Comprehensive Anomaly Based on Earthquake Corresponding Probability Spectrum[J].Earthquake Research in China,2009,25(3):294-302.(in Chinese)
[4]王琼,王海涛,唐兰兰,等.基于地震对应概率谱的多参数综合异常空间特征研究[J].地震,2010,30(1):98-107.WANG Qiong,WANG Hai-tao,TANG Lan-lan,et al.MultiParametric Anomaly Spatial Characteristics Based on Earthquake Corresponding Probability Spectrum[J].Earthquake,2010,30(1):98-107.(in Chinese)
[5]唐兰兰,王海涛,王琼.新疆中强地震前ECRS方法的异常研究[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(2):159-165.TANG Lan-lan,WANG Hai-tao,WANG Qiong.Research on Anomaly of ECRS Method before Moderate-strong Earthquake in Xinjiang Region[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2011,33(2):159-165.(in Chinese)
[6]卢显,王琼,刘杰,等.郯庐带中强地震前后多参数综合异常时空特征研究[J].地震,2012,32(1):40-48.LU Xian,WANG Qiong,LIU Jie,et al.Temporal-spatial Characteristics of Multi-parametric Anomaly before and after Moderate-strong Earthquakes on the Tanlu Fault Zone[J].Earthquake,2012,32(1):40-48.(in Chinese)
[7]王想,王琼,冯建刚,等.ECRS方法在河北及周边地区的应用研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2012,33(3/4):1-9.WANG Xiang,WANG Qiong,FENG Jian-gang,et al.The Application of ECRS Methods in Hebei Province and Around Area[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2012,33(3/4):1-9.(in Chinese)
[8]冯建刚,王琼,唐兰兰.古浪窗口地震的ECRS方法异常指标识别研究[J].高原地震,2012,24(1):38-42.FENG Jian-gang,WANG Qiong,TANG Lan-lan.Research on Precursory Anomaly Identification of the Gulang Window Earthquake Based on ECRS Method[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,2012,24(1):38-42.(in Chinese)
[9]宋美琴,梁向军,宁亚灵.山西地区构造环境剪应力场研究[J].山西地震,2008(2):1-3.SONG Mei-qin,LIANG Xiang-jun,NING Ya-ling.Study on Shear Stress Field of Tectonic Environment in Shanxi[J].Earthquake Research in Shanxi,2008(2):1-3.(in Chinese)
[10]宋美琴,李华玥,韩立波,等.用CAP方法翻译2010年6月5日山西阳曲MS4.6地震震源机制解[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(3):692-697.SONG Mei-qin,LI Hua-yue,HAN Li-bo,et al.Focal Mechanism of the MS4.6Yangqu Earthquake of June 5,2010,Determined from the CAP Method[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2013,35(3):692-697.(in Chinese)
[11]王秀文,宋美琴,杨国华,等.山西地区应力场变化与地震的关系[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(5):1127-1133.WANG Xiu-wen,SONG Mei-qin,YANG Guo-hua,et al.Research on Relationship Between Stress Field Variation and Earthquakes in Shanxi Area,China[J].Chinese J Geophys,2010,53(5):1127-1133.(in Chinese)
[12]王霞,宋美琴,李丽.山西断陷盆地地震目录最小完整性震级分析[J].山西地震,2013(3):6-10.WANG Xia,SONG Mei-qin,LI Li.Analysis on the Minimum Magnitude of Completeness for Earthquake Catalogue in Shanxi Graben Basins[J].Earthquake Research in Shanxi,2013(3):6-1.(in Chinese)
[2]WANG Hai-tao,WANG Qiong TANG Lan-lan.Comprehensive Precursor Anomaly Research Based on Earthquake Corresponding Relevancy Spectrum[J].Earthq Sci,2009,22(6):675-681.
[3]王琼,王海涛,唐兰兰.基于地震对应概率谱的多参数综合异常研究[J].中国地震,2009,25(3):294-302.WANG Qiong,WANG Hai-tao,TANG Lan-lan.Research on Multi-parameter Comprehensive Anomaly Based on Earthquake Corresponding Probability Spectrum[J].Earthquake Research in China,2009,25(3):294-302.(in Chinese)
[4]王琼,王海涛,唐兰兰,等.基于地震对应概率谱的多参数综合异常空间特征研究[J].地震,2010,30(1):98-107.WANG Qiong,WANG Hai-tao,TANG Lan-lan,et al.MultiParametric Anomaly Spatial Characteristics Based on Earthquake Corresponding Probability Spectrum[J].Earthquake,2010,30(1):98-107.(in Chinese)
[5]唐兰兰,王海涛,王琼.新疆中强地震前ECRS方法的异常研究[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(2):159-165.TANG Lan-lan,WANG Hai-tao,WANG Qiong.Research on Anomaly of ECRS Method before Moderate-strong Earthquake in Xinjiang Region[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2011,33(2):159-165.(in Chinese)
[6]卢显,王琼,刘杰,等.郯庐带中强地震前后多参数综合异常时空特征研究[J].地震,2012,32(1):40-48.LU Xian,WANG Qiong,LIU Jie,et al.Temporal-spatial Characteristics of Multi-parametric Anomaly before and after Moderate-strong Earthquakes on the Tanlu Fault Zone[J].Earthquake,2012,32(1):40-48.(in Chinese)
[7]王想,王琼,冯建刚,等.ECRS方法在河北及周边地区的应用研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2012,33(3/4):1-9.WANG Xiang,WANG Qiong,FENG Jian-gang,et al.The Application of ECRS Methods in Hebei Province and Around Area[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2012,33(3/4):1-9.(in Chinese)
[8]冯建刚,王琼,唐兰兰.古浪窗口地震的ECRS方法异常指标识别研究[J].高原地震,2012,24(1):38-42.FENG Jian-gang,WANG Qiong,TANG Lan-lan.Research on Precursory Anomaly Identification of the Gulang Window Earthquake Based on ECRS Method[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,2012,24(1):38-42.(in Chinese)
[9]宋美琴,梁向军,宁亚灵.山西地区构造环境剪应力场研究[J].山西地震,2008(2):1-3.SONG Mei-qin,LIANG Xiang-jun,NING Ya-ling.Study on Shear Stress Field of Tectonic Environment in Shanxi[J].Earthquake Research in Shanxi,2008(2):1-3.(in Chinese)
[10]宋美琴,李华玥,韩立波,等.用CAP方法翻译2010年6月5日山西阳曲MS4.6地震震源机制解[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(3):692-697.SONG Mei-qin,LI Hua-yue,HAN Li-bo,et al.Focal Mechanism of the MS4.6Yangqu Earthquake of June 5,2010,Determined from the CAP Method[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2013,35(3):692-697.(in Chinese)
[11]王秀文,宋美琴,杨国华,等.山西地区应力场变化与地震的关系[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(5):1127-1133.WANG Xiu-wen,SONG Mei-qin,YANG Guo-hua,et al.Research on Relationship Between Stress Field Variation and Earthquakes in Shanxi Area,China[J].Chinese J Geophys,2010,53(5):1127-1133.(in Chinese)
[12]王霞,宋美琴,李丽.山西断陷盆地地震目录最小完整性震级分析[J].山西地震,2013(3):6-10.WANG Xia,SONG Mei-qin,LI Li.Analysis on the Minimum Magnitude of Completeness for Earthquake Catalogue in Shanxi Graben Basins[J].Earthquake Research in Shanxi,2013(3):6-1.(in Chinese)
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