可操作的地震预报 认知状态与应用指南
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摘要
2009年拉奎拉地震后,意大利民防署(DPC)任命了一个国际民防地震预报委员会(ICEF),其任务是就当前构造地震短期预测预报的认知水平提出报告并提出利用可能的大地震前兆启动民防措施的指导意见,包括大地震后地震灾险性概率分析结果的使用。国际地震预报委员会回顾了由世界范围地震活动区的进展获得的地震预测预报研究。预测(predic-tion)定义为确定性地表述未来地震是否将在一特定地理区域、时间窗和震级范围内发生,而预报(forecast)则是给出这样一个事件将要发生的概率(大于0但小于1)。对地震的可预测性,即可依据观测到的地震系统的表现确定未来地震发生的程度,人们知之甚少。这种认知的缺乏反映在不能在短时间尺度上可靠地预测地震活动地区的大地震。大多数已提出的预测方法依靠的是诊断性前兆,即在地震之前可观测到的某种以高概率说明即将来临地震的地点、时间和震级的信号的概念。本报告中评议的前兆方法包括应变率、地震波速和电导率的变化,地下水、土壤和空气中氡浓度的变化,地下水位的扰动,近地表及其上方的电磁变化,热异常,动物行为异常和地震活动性图像等。诊断性前兆的探索迄今尚未提出成功的短期预测方案。因此,本报告关注作为与收集和传播含时间的地震灾险性权威信息的原则性方法的可操作的地震预报,以帮助社会公众应对潜在的破坏性地震。在几天和几周的短时间尺度上地震序列显示出如大地震触发的余震空间和时间上的成丛性。成丛性的统计描述解释了地震目录中观察到的许多特征,并可用于形成预报,说明地震概率的短期变化。若能恰当加以应用,短期预报就具有可操作性,如预测大地震后的余震。尽管长期预报对于保障地震安全性的价值是明确的,但对短期预报的解释却令人困惑,由于地震概率变化可达几个量级,而典型的概率值在绝对意义上仍然很低(日概率小于1%)。把这种低概率的预报转换为有效的决策是一个艰难的挑战。报告收集了高地震危险性的6个国家(中国、希腊、意大利、日本、俄罗斯和美国)在地震风险管理中当前利用可操作预报的状况。长期模型是当前民众预防地震破坏最重要的预报手段,因为它们指导了建筑规范中的地震安全条款、基于性能的抗震设计和其他减轻风险的工程实践,如在翻修旧建筑中纠正设计缺陷等。余震的短期预报在上述一些国家中曾经实践过,但可操作的地震预报还没有在任何一个国家完全实施过(即定期更新并且在全国范围内实施)。根据在地震活跃区积累的经验,国际地震预报委员会向意大利民防署提供了一组在意大利使用可操作的预报的建议,这些建议对于其他国家可能也是有用的。应该向公众提供关于未来地震短期概率的权威的、科学的、一致的和及时的公开信息源。报告应以具有可操作性、定期更新的地震活动预报系统为基础,而且这些系统在地震信息的产生、发送和使用中都要经专家严格评审和更新。所有可操作模型的质量应当通过对其可靠性和有效性的回顾性检验加以评估,而且应对已建立的长期预报和其他含时间的模型进行持续的前瞻性检验。警报规程应当标准化以便于各级政府及民众做出决策。应当确定地震概率阈值以指导警报等级,而警报等级是以代价和收益,以及信息价值的无形方面,如心理准备与恢复方面效益的客观分析为基础。由社会科学研究确立的有效的公众交流原则应当被用于地震灾险信息的发送。
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    [1]Gruppo di Lavoro,2004,http://zonesis-miche.mi.ingv.it/.2004年意大利地震危险性图所用震源模型已发表,见Meletti et al,2008.
    [2]Chiarabba et al,2009;Anzidei et al,2009;Atzori et al,2009.帕加尼卡断层曾由Bagnaia等(1992)认定为活动构造.
    [3]Basili et al,2008.
    [4]Marzocchi and Lombardi,2009.这次余震预报模型的应用似为短期预报方法在意大利的首次使用.“显著有效”的评价是相对于不含时间的预报而言.
    [5]Grandori and Guagenti,2009.
    [6]委员会于2009年5月13日会见了朱利安尼先生.
    [7]在2009年4月6日主震前后朱利安尼先生对媒体作出了互相矛盾的表述.会见朱利安尼先生的报道见http://www.youtube.com/INGV-terremotiJHJp/u/13/c7-9lNkA-y4.
    [8]Jordan et al,2009.
    [9]例如,利用拉奎拉地震的地震记录估计的震中(震源上方地表点)位于42.342°N,13.380°E,震源深度为8.3千米,发震时刻为世界时01∶32∶40.4(当地时间03∶32∶40.4).
    [10]地震矩M0正比于破裂面积乘以平均破裂位移.矩震级以公式MW=(2/3)log M0-6.03定义,其中M0的单位是牛顿·米(Nm).由远震波形测定拉奎拉地震的地震矩为3.4×1018Nm,相应的矩震级MW=6.3(Pondrelli et al,2010).
    [11]观测到的断层破裂辐射的地震能量大体正比于地震矩M0,且高出几个量级,故可用logE~3/2M W表示;因此,矩震级增加一个单位,相应的地震能量增加32倍.平均的E/M0≈3×10-5,相应于~1MPa的视应力(Ide and Beroza,2001).
    [12]INGV,2009.2009年4月拉奎拉地震序列见http://portale.ingv.it/primo-piano/archivio-pri-mo-piano/notizie-2009/terremoto-6-aprile/copy_of_la-sequenza-sismica-dell-aquilano-aprile-2009/view?set_language=it.
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    [15]Schorlemmer et al,2010.对2005年4月16日以来的地震报告分析表明,除撒丁岛、潘泰莱里亚和蓝佩杜萨岛以外的意大利全境,意大利国家地震台网对ML2.9以上的地震是完整的.对意大利民防署报告的阈值ML2.5,台网在阿普利亚区南部和西西里岛西部可能有地震被遗漏.在阿布罗佐大区,以及亚平宁山脉的中部和南部的其他地区,低至ML1.5的阈值目录是完整的.
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    [18]震级为M的主震产生的震级阈值M0以上的余震数正比于exp[α(M-M0)],其中触发指数α近似为常数(Utsu and Seki,1955;Utsu1971).
    [19]改进的大森定标关系表明余震发生率随时间按幂次律衰减:n(t)=K(t+c)-p,其中K,c和p是常数,且p通常接近1(Utsu,1961).
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    [23]“特征地震”一词用以描述具有相似特征的地表破裂、特别是相似的地表位移(Schwartz and Coppersmith,1984)的反复发生的地震.最近的研究指出破裂具有各种尺度的不均匀的复杂的位移分布(如Konca et al,2008).因此,本报告采用更一般的定义:特征地震是具有近似相等的平均位移,也即相似的地震矩的整个断层段的破裂.
    [24]在更新点过程中,相继事件间的时间被认为是互相独立的相同分布的随机变量.当破裂在断层段上发生时,就将更新过程重置于其初始状态.复发间隔的分布以平均复发时间间隔和非周期性因子为参数的概率密度函数模拟,非周期性因子则以变异系数(以平均复发时间间隔归一的标准偏差)估计.这种分布的例子有对数正态、韦布尔(Weibull)和布朗(Brownian)过程时间(BPT)分布.见Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,2003.
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    [37]假定某区域目标事件的平均发生率为R(平均复发时间间隔的倒数),则该区域在任一时间区间T发生1个或1个以上事件的泊松概率为Ppoisson=1-e-RT.当预报时间间隔远小于复发时间间隔时,Ppoisson≈RT.例如,复发时间间隔为300年时,3天的发震概率约为3×10-5.
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    [39]综合回顾了有关文件和证据后,Wang等(2006)认为“海城地震预报是迷茫困惑、经验分析、直觉判断和良好运气的融合.”
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    [46]意大利ML≥4地震的平均发生率约为每年16次(Chiarabba et al,2005),故在未来一年中这类地震不发生的泊松概率仅为10-7左右.
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    [50]在天气预报中,“校核”一词用于代替“验证”(如Jolliffe and Stephenson,2003).本报告采用计算机科学中比较典型的用法(Roache,1998).校核是用事实证明模型在规定的精度上“做其应做之事”,如某计算机代码在数学方面是正确的并被正确执行.验证用以确定模型在其假定的应用范围内充分描述了真实系统的表现且其认识不确定性特征得到恰当的表述.校核可以通过与其他模型的比较来完成(如通过交叉验证),但验证需要模型结果与观测资料做比较.
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    [167]这一类数据发掘技术已成功应用于许多科学领域,经常用在具有明确先验性质的对象的可视化和探测,这些性质对于其他方法已超出了传感器的分辨限度.例如,从模糊不清的照片中提取超速行驶的车牌号(如Han and Kamber,2006).
    [168]Keilis-Borok et al,1988;Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov,1990.
    [169]Peresan et al,1999.
    [170]Healy et al,1992;Kossobokov et al,1999a;Peresan et al,2005;Kossobokov,2006;Kossobokov and Soloviev,2008.
    [171]Molchan,1990,1991.
    [172]Marzocchi et al,2003a.
    [173]Main et al,2008.
    [174]Shebalin et al,2006.
    [175]Sobolev,2001.
    [176]Shebalin,2006.
    [177]Sornette and Sammis,1995.
    [178]Rundle et al,2002;Tiampo et al,2002a.
    [179]Toyaet al,2010.
    [180]Tiampo et al,2002b.
    [181]按Holliday等(2008),“该方法曾被Rundle等(2002)在2000~2010年期间用于加州预报M大于等于5的地震.这次预报试验成功地预测了随后发生的18个大地震中的16个的位置.”由于对应于这些预报的警报区域并没有明确规定,这一结果很难评估.
    [182]Varnes,1989.
    [183]Main,1999.
    [184]Bowman et al,1998;Bowman and King,2001;Mignan et al,2007.
    [185]Greenhough et al,2009.
    [186]Hardebeck et al,2008.
    [187]Zoback et al,2010.
    [188]K.Aki(1989)的论述提供了这一研究目标的导向:“我愿将从事地震预测的物理科学家的任务规定为:在观测到特有的一组前兆现象的条件下,客观地估计在特定的空间和时间窗内地震发生的概率.”
    [189]Gomberg et al,2003.
    [190]Stein et al,1992,1994;Harris and Simp-son,1992;Toda et al,2005.
    [191]Cocco and Rice,2002.
    [192]Stein,1999;Liu et al,2009;Chen et al,2010.
    [193]Rydelek and Sacks,1999;Deng and Sykes,1997;Harris et al,1996;Harris and Simp-son,1998;Marzocchi et al,2003b;Toda et al,2005;Toda,2008.
    [194]Stein et al,1997.
    [195]McCloskey et al,2005.
    [196]Kerr,2007.
    [197]Dieterich,1994;Gomberg et al,2000.
    [198]Marzocchi et al,2009.
    [199]Ward,1997;Rundle et al,2006;Yklmaz et al,2010.
    [200]Dieterich and Richards-Dinger,2010.
    [201]Mallman and Parsons,2008;Parsons and Velasco,2009.
    [202]Felzer and Brodsky,2006;Main,2006.
    [203]Harris and Day,1993;Oglesby,2008;Doser et al,2009.
    [204]Pollitz,1992;Piersanti et al,1995;Peltz-er et al,1996;Pollitz et al,2004.
    [205]Kenner and Segall,2000.
    [206]Obara,2002;Miller et al,2002;Kao et al,2005;Szeligaet al,2008.
    [207]Liu and Rice,2005,2009;Rubin,2008;Perfettini and Ampuero,2008.
    [208]Shelly et al,2006.
    [209]Wallace and Beavan,2006;Larson et al,2007;Delahaye et al,2009;Brudzinski et al,2010;Vergnolle et al,2010.
    [210]Linde et al,1996;Murray and Segall,2005;Lohman and McGuire,2007;Wei et al,2009.
    [211]Nadeau and Dolenc,2005;Gomberg et al,2008.
    [212]Shelly,2010.
    [213]例如,卡斯凯迪亚俯冲带上的缓慢滑动事件显示了14个月的周期性,Mazzotti和Ad-ams(2004)曾推测:“在2周的缓慢滑动事件期间,大地震的周概率比这一年其他任意一周高30到100倍.”
    [214]G可在0到1/Ppoisson间变化,G>1对应概率增益,G<1对应概率损失(Aki1981).
    [215]Jordan and Jones,2010.
    [216]Fujiwara et al,2006.
    [217]Cornell and Winterstein,1988.
    [218]Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,2003.
    [219]Parsons and Geist,2009.
    [220]Zielke et al,2010;Grant Ludwig et al,2010.
    [221]Page et al,2011.
    [222]Daeron et al,2007.
    [223]Hubert-Ferrari et al,2005.
    [224]Pace et al,2006.
    [225]由E.Faccioli和W.Marzocchi领导的S2IN-GV/DPC项目已研制了若干替代模型.其中一个基于具有独立特征地震的断层,其中第二个利用库仑破裂函数引入断层相互作用,其中第三个过滤了空间中复发断层并加上不含时间的背景地震活动性.
    [226]Reasenberg and Jones,1989,1994.
    [227]Gerstenberger et al,2005,2007;日常预报可见http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthqua-kes/step/.
    [228]Holliday et al,2008.
    [229]Helmstetter et al,2006.
    [230]Console et al,2010.
    [231]Unpublished calculation by W.Marzocchi(2009).
    [232]McGuire et al,2005.
    [233]Agnew and Jones,1991;Michael and Jones,1998.
    [234]Michael,2011.
    [235]Marzocchi and Zhuang,2011.
    [236]Parsons et al,2000.
    [237]Stein et al,2006;Bozkurt et al,2007.
    [238]Toda et al,2008.
    [239]Parsons,2002.
    [240]Huc and Main,2003.
    [241]Woessner et al,2011.
    [242]Rhoades and Evison,2004.
    [243]Rhoades and Evison,2005.
    [244]Rhoades and Gerstenberger,2009.
    [245]Marzocchi and Lombardi,2008.
    [246]Lombardi and Marzocchi,2009.
    [247]在最完整的意义上讲,预报质量是由包含在预报和观测的联合概率分布中的统计特征的总体来表征的.这一表征方法相应于方法学中被称为用于验证的分布定向方法(Murphy and Winkler,1987).
    [248]Field,2007,也可参见Seismol.Res.Lett.78,no.1,2007.上的论文.
    [249]Schorlemmer et al,2007.
    [250]Schorlemmer et al,2010.
    [251]Zechar et al,2010.
    [252]当前正在地震可预测性研究合作实验室接受检验的预报模型包括不含时间的模型和定期(如1天、3个月和1年)更新的含时间的模型,见http://www.cseptesting.org/.
    [253]检验的前瞻性质受到一定限制:由于形成检验所用地震目录需要时间,地震可预测性研究合作实验室实验滞后的时间从1个月左右直至1年以上.在意大利产出地震可预测性研究合作实验室检验所用国家地球物理与火山学研究所目录约迟滞8个月.
    [254]Marzocchi et al,2010.
    [255]地震可预测性研究合作实验室的网站是ht-tp://eu.cseptesting.org/.
    [256]Graves et al,2010.
    [257]National Research Council Committee on Es-timating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts(2006).
    [258]关于如何将预报应用于减轻地震灾害风险,Vere-Jones(1995)认为:“这种考虑加强了这样的观点:从事地震预报的科学家的主要任务应当是发展理论和模型,使这样的条件概率可从以往的信息明确计算得到;另一方面,警报战略的研究,包括设置恰当的阈值水平和警报后应采取的行动,不应由科学家承担,而应由包括起提供咨询作用的科学家(当然包括统计学家)代表相应的地方和国家当局的一个小组负责.”
    [259]作为项目《Progetto per la rilevazione della vulnerabilitàdel patrimonio edilizio a rischio sismico e di formazione di tecnici per l'attivitàdi prevenzione sismica connessa alle politiche di mitigazione del rischio sismico nelle regioni dell'Italia meridionale》的一部分,意大利关于地震易损性的一系列专门研究由国家抗震小组(GNDT)于1999~2001年出版(如GNDT,1999),见http://gndt.ingv.it/Pubblicazioni/Censimenti.htm.
    [260]Patéand Shah,1979;Allen,1980;Ander-son,1981;Jones,1996.
    [261]van Stiphout et al,2010.
    [262]Zhang,1988,1990;Chen et al,1992.
    [263]Fu and Liu,1956;Chen,1986,2001.
    [264]Chen et al,2002.
    [265]Seismological Committee of Chinese Academy of Sciences,1956;Li,1957;Lee,1960;Gu,1983a,b;State Seismological Bureau,1981;Xie and Cai,1987;Hu,1990;Min,1995;State Seismological Bureau,1996;Wang et al,1999.
    [266]National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China,2008.
    [267]Li,1986;Quan,1988;Wang et al,2006.
    [268]Chen and Wang,2010.
    [269]Papazachos and Papazachou,1997;Papado-poulos et al,2000b.
    [270]NOAGI网站首页为http://www.gein.noa.gr/.
    [271]希腊地震危险性区划图可见http://www.oasp.gr/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=47%3A2010-02-05-11-20-24&catid.
    [272]Papadopoulos and Kijko,1991.
    [273]Lyubushin et al,2002.
    [274]Papaioannou and Papazachos,2000.
    [275]Tsapanos,2008.
    [276]Wyss and Baer,1981;Papazachos and Comninakis,1982;Papadopoulos,1988;Latoussakis and Stavrakakis,1992;Papado-poulos et al,2000a;Papazachos and Pa-pazachos,2001;Papadopoulos et al,2006.
    [277]Varotsos and Alexopoulos,1984;Varotsos et al,1986,1993.
    [278]对VAN方法和结果的批评性讨论见Mu-largia and Gasperini,1992;Geller,1996和Lighthill,1996.最近的讨论见Papadopou-los,2010;Uyeda and Kamogawa,2010.
    [279]Lagios et al,2007.
    [280]Petrini et al,1981.
    [281]Slejko et al,1998.
    [282]Stucchi et al,2004,见http://zonesis-miche.mi.ingv.it/documenti/rapporto_con-clusivo.pdf(意大利语).
    [283]Valensise and Pantosti,2001;Meletti et al,2008.
    [284]详见日本气象厅网站,http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html.
    [285]详见地震调查研究推进本部网站,http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/index-e.html.
    [286]Ishibashi,1977,1981.
    [287]检测板块边界上MW6缓慢滑动的实时应变台阵的能力已在东海地区得到证明(Koba-yashi et al,2006).但日本气象厅并未宣称预测将会总是成功,因为可检测的预滑并未被证明是诊断性前兆.观测和理论的最新进展表明,板块边界上存在完全闭锁区和稳定滑动区之间的中间区域.
    [288]规程要点可见日本气象厅网站,http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake_tokai/.
    [289]当(1)观测到小的异常不足以解释为直接与东海地震发生有关,或(2)观测到一些异常但解释为与东海地震发生无关(即标志没有该地震危险)时发布地震报告.当观测到一些异常并被解释为东海地震发生概率增加的标志时发布地震忠告.当观测到异常并被解释为东海地震即将发生的标志时发布地震警报.
    [290]地震调查研究推进本部和日本气象厅最近宣布,他们将预报开始于2011年4月的伊豆半岛东部的地震群活动.该区域1978年以来反复发生地震群,强化的观测研究揭示这些地震活动是由岩浆作为岩脉注入地壳产生的.岩脉注入可由部署在震源区的应变仪检测和评估.对以往活动的统计研究表明,初始阶段的应变变化与随后的震群活动线性相关.最初24小时的应变量可用于预报最大事件和地震总数,而由检测到的岩浆注入事件数可预报地震群活动的持续时间.该预报规程的科学背景参见Morita et al,2006.
    [291]Hirata,2004.
    [292]Shimazaki et al,2001,详见地震调查研究推进本部网站,http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/index-e.html.
    [293]2005年西福冈地震(MW6.6)、2007年能登半岛地震(MW6.7)和2007年新澙县中越近海地震(MW6.6)均发生在缺少充分调查的日本海近海岸地区(Toda and Awata,2008).岩手—宫城地震(MW6.9)发生在已评估的断层之南,该处几乎没有发现地表断层迹线的证据(Ohta et al,2008).
    [294]地震研究委员会,《日本国家地震危险性图(2005)》,地震调查研究推进本部发布于2005年3月23日的报告,158页,登陆ht-tp://www.jishin.go.jp/main/index-e.html可见其英译本;Fujiwara et al(2006).
    [295]日文危险性图的官方版本由国家地球科学与防灾研究所在日本地震危险性信息站(J-SHIS)http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/提供,该网站包含与英文版的链接.概率地震危险性图给出了大于某一固定的日本气象厅地震烈度的30年超越概率,以及固定超越概率不同复发周期下的日本气象厅烈度.地震动场景图给出了特定震源的日本气象厅烈度.
    [296]Obara et al,2005.
    [297]Nanjo et al,2010.
    [298]Kamigaichi et al,2009.
    [299]日本气象厅地震预警规程的详细资料公布在网站上,http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/eew.html.
    [300]Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov,1987;Ko-ssobokov et al,1990;Keilis-Borok et al,1990;Kossobokov et al,1999b;Kossobo-kov and Soloviev,2008.
    [301]Fedotov,1965,1968.
    [302]Fedotov et al,2008.
    [303]Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov,1987;Ko-ssobokov et al,1990;Sobolev et al,1991;Sobolev,2001.
    [304]Fedotov et al,1999;Sobolev,2008.
    [305]Sobolev et al,1990.
    [306]项目由美国地质调查局地震危险性项目组管理,可见http://earthquake.usgs.gov/haz-ards/.
    [307]Building Seismic Safety Council,2003.
    [308]Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,1988,1990,1995,2003,2007.
    [309]Wesson et al,2007,http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1043/.
    [310]全国地震预测评估委员会修订版章程于2006年1月23日由美国地质调查局代局长P.Patrick Leahy签发.美国总务管理局(GSA)此后简化了对联邦咨询委员会章程的要求,因此,由美国地质调查局局长M.McNutt签发的全国地震预测评估委员会章程2010年版比本报告正文中概述的2006年版更简洁(因而信息也更少).
    [311]Jones et al(1991),南圣安德烈斯工作组报告中的概率阈值采用根据原先Bakun等(1987)为加州帕克菲尔德地区设置的值.
    [312]在南圣安德烈斯工作组报告前,1980年代曾发布过几次A级警告,2次在帕克菲尔德地区和2次在埃尔斯曼湖地区发生M5地震后(Harris,1998,见http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1550/pp1550b/pp1550b.pdf).
    [313]加州地震预测评估委员会的方法是以D.Agnew和L.M.Jones(1991)的公式为基础,最近的综述可见Michael(2011).
    [314]Bonanno et al,2007;Magsino,2009.
    [315]Mileti et al,1981;Mileti and Darlington,1997;Lindell et al,2009.
    [316]这些结果和建议与委员会在2009年10月2日所发布的相同(见Jordan et al,2009).
    [317]意大利的地震活动由位于罗马的国家地球物理学与火山学研究所的国家地震中心监测,公众可在CNT网站http://cnt.rm.ingv.it获取资料.
    [318]INGV期刊(2009年11月),http://bolletti-nosismico.rm.ingv.it/2009_04_01/2009_04_01.lst.
    [319]Chiarabba et al,2009;Anzidei et al,2009;Atzori et al,2009.
    [320]EMERGEO Working Group,2010.
    [321]Boschi et al,2000.
    [322]Galadini and Galli,2000.
    [323]D'Agostino et al,2008.
    [324]Roberts and Michetti,2004.
    [325]Bagnaia et al,1992.
    [326]Papadopoulos et al,2010.
    [327]Serpelloni et al,2005.

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