地震短临预报综合指标的研究
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摘要
本文在分析了华北震例资料的基础上,结合实用化攻关结果和多种孕震模型对前兆的解释,提取具有物理意义的13个短临指标,建立了组合式短临指标体系,用信息集成方法计算短临群体异常综合信息量(Y),以此值作为判定是否进入短临阶段的定量标志。当此值达到阈值(0.10)时,结合中期前兆异常、地震活动性异常、异常台项比等因素,计算了短临预报综合指标S值,以S值作为是否形成短临预报意见的定量判据。本文的方法把预测时间缩小到三个月左右,并给出相应的预报概率。本研究为短临预报、综合决策提供了定量判据,具有较大的实用意义。
Based on analysis of the earthquake cases in North China, combining the results of practical study with different seismogenic models of precursory anomalies, the authors suggested 13 short-term and imminent indices, established the synthetic index system, calculated the synthetic information capacity (7 value) of the short-term and imminent group anomalies by using the method of information synthesis, and this value was used as a quantitative index for judging the short-term and imminent period. When Y> 1.0, combining the precursory anomalies of intermediate period, seismicity anomalies with the ratio of anomaly station items to all station items, the authors calculated the synthetic index for the short-term and imminent prediction (S value), which was used as a quantitative index for judging the prediction idea. The predicted terms by using the method mentioned in this paper are as shorter as three months. This paper also calculated the synthetic probalility of prediction. The authors here provided a quantitative judgement for the short-term prediction and synthetic decision, which is of a practical significance.
Based on analysis of the earthquake cases in North China, combining the results of practical study with different seismogenic models of precursory anomalies, the authors suggested 13 short-term and imminent indices, established the synthetic index system, calculated the synthetic information capacity (7 value) of the short-term and imminent group anomalies by using the method of information synthesis, and this value was used as a quantitative index for judging the short-term and imminent period. When Y> 1.0, combining the precursory anomalies of intermediate period, seismicity anomalies with the ratio of anomaly station items to all station items, the authors calculated the synthetic index for the short-term and imminent prediction (S value), which was used as a quantitative index for judging the prediction idea. The predicted terms by using the method mentioned in this paper are as shorter as three months. This paper also calculated the synthetic probalility of prediction. The authors here provided a quantitative judgement for the short-term prediction and synthetic decision, which is of a practical significance.
引文
[1] 胡长和等,华北地区地震前兆的主要特征及综合预报判据和指标,地震预报方法实用化研究文集,综合预报专辑,地震出版社,1991。
[2] 张国民等,孕震模型在综合预报中的应用,地震预报方法实用化研究文集,综合预报专辑,地震出版社,1991。
[3] 张肇诚等,中国震例,地震出版社,1990。
[4] 国家地震局科技监测司等,震情研究,1989,增刊。
[5] 章克敏等,不等指标的聚类分析法及应用,系统工程理论与实践,4,1991。
[6] 李文英等,多级模糊综合评判在地震综合预报中的应用,地震,1,1990。
[7] 马丽等,大同-阳高震群前兆现象的综合分析,地震,4,1990。
[2] 张国民等,孕震模型在综合预报中的应用,地震预报方法实用化研究文集,综合预报专辑,地震出版社,1991。
[3] 张肇诚等,中国震例,地震出版社,1990。
[4] 国家地震局科技监测司等,震情研究,1989,增刊。
[5] 章克敏等,不等指标的聚类分析法及应用,系统工程理论与实践,4,1991。
[6] 李文英等,多级模糊综合评判在地震综合预报中的应用,地震,1,1990。
[7] 马丽等,大同-阳高震群前兆现象的综合分析,地震,4,1990。
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