地震力标度σ值及其在地震短期预测中的应用
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摘要
基于地震波能量,利用数字地震波形资料,提出地震力标度σ值定量预测指标,详细介绍了σ值计算方法,研究了强震前σ值时间和空间变化规律。结果表明:①地震力标度σ值与震级ML存在lgσ=0.98ML+6.93标度关系,σ值是一个表征地震时震源处断层平均驱动力的物理量,其大小介于地震频度和能量之间;②云南地区σ值会出现类似于正弦波的高低起伏周期变化,发生于波峰附近的强震绝大多数以连发的形式发生,而波谷附近则以单个地震发生为主,以σ值曲线从谷底上升1.5个月为起报时间点,则3个月及其以内发生强震的可能性为78%;③σ值空间分布表明,主震前2～4个月σ值在较大范围内会出现高值异常,随着主震的临近,σ高值会向未来主震震中及附近迁移、集中和收缩,主震发生前很短时间(1个月内),σ值会迅速变小,临震前地震活动异常平静现象明显。
Based on seismic wave energy,using digital seismic waveform data,we present a quantitative predicttion index called seismic force scale σ value.We first introduced the method of calculating the σ value in detail,and then studied the variation of σ values in time and space before strong earthquakes.The results show:① The relationship between σ values and magnitude ML follows lgσ=0.98ML+6.93,and σ is a physical quantity that characterizes the average driving force of fault in earthquake source,with size between the earthquake frequency and energy;② In the Yunnan area,σ values appeared cyclic similar to the sine wave.Earthquake occurred in the vicinity of peak most occurred in the form of repeating,but mainly in the form of single earthquake around the trough.Taking the point 1.5 months from the bottom up in the σ value curve as forecast time,then the possibility of strong earthquakes is 78% within 3 months;③ High-value anomaly in σ values appeared 2~4 months before the main shock in the larger region.With the approach of the main shock,high σ values will move,concentrate and contract to the area of future main shock and the surrounding area,and σ values will be rapidly getting smaller a short period of time before the main shock(within 1 month),with obvious quiecence of seismicity.
Based on seismic wave energy,using digital seismic waveform data,we present a quantitative predicttion index called seismic force scale σ value.We first introduced the method of calculating the σ value in detail,and then studied the variation of σ values in time and space before strong earthquakes.The results show:① The relationship between σ values and magnitude ML follows lgσ=0.98ML+6.93,and σ is a physical quantity that characterizes the average driving force of fault in earthquake source,with size between the earthquake frequency and energy;② In the Yunnan area,σ values appeared cyclic similar to the sine wave.Earthquake occurred in the vicinity of peak most occurred in the form of repeating,but mainly in the form of single earthquake around the trough.Taking the point 1.5 months from the bottom up in the σ value curve as forecast time,then the possibility of strong earthquakes is 78% within 3 months;③ High-value anomaly in σ values appeared 2~4 months before the main shock in the larger region.With the approach of the main shock,high σ values will move,concentrate and contract to the area of future main shock and the surrounding area,and σ values will be rapidly getting smaller a short period of time before the main shock(within 1 month),with obvious quiecence of seismicity.
引文
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[13]钱晓东,秦嘉政.云南地区中强震丛集和连发研究[J].地震研究,2007,30(1):1-7.
[14]万永革.数字信号处理的MATLAB实现[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.252-268.
[2]陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985.105.
[3]谷继成,魏富胜.论地震活动性的定量化:地震活动度[J].中国地震,1987,3(增刊):12-22.
[4]程万正.地震活动性参数的数理基础、相关性及筛选[J].地震学报,1999,21(2):166-174.
[5]罗兰格,侯建明.地震活动性的标度[J].地震,1987,3:40-45.
[6]韩渭宾,易桂喜,辛华.与频度和能量有关的各种地震学指标的相关性研究[J].地震学报,2001,23(6):582-587.
[7]陈运泰.2003.地震能量和地震效率.中国地震局监测预报司编.地震参数-数字地震学在地震预测中的应用[M].北京:地震出版社,2003.51-58.
[8]Brune J N.Tectonic stress and spectra of seismic shear wave fromearthquake[J].J Geophys Res,1970,75:4997-5009.
[9]秦嘉政,阚荣举.用近震尾波估算昆明及其周围地区的Q值和地震矩[J].地球物理学报,1986,29(2):145-156.
[10]秦嘉政,钱晓东,叶建庆,等.用峰值速度估算姚安地震序列的地震能量[J].地震学报,2002,24(1):98-102.
[11]叶建庆,秦嘉政,蔡绍平,等.永胜地震观测与研究[J].地震研究,2002,25(增刊B):64-73.
[12]黄雍,张建国,乔森主编.2001年云南施甸中强震群研究[M].昆明:云南科技出版社,2002.134-165.
[13]钱晓东,秦嘉政.云南地区中强震丛集和连发研究[J].地震研究,2007,30(1):1-7.
[14]万永革.数字信号处理的MATLAB实现[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.252-268.
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