京津冀都市圈地震灾害脆弱性评价及城际差异分析
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摘要
为了从自然、社会、经济等多个角度探讨地震灾害脆弱性,基于统计年鉴及由其整理获取的数据资料建立了评价指标体系,采用根据地震样本经过神经网络训练获得的权重数值,利用灰色理论对区域地震灾害脆弱性进行了评价。最后作为案例,给出了京津冀都市圈10市的地震脆弱性评价,并分析了权重变化对评价结果的影响。结果表明,京津冀都市圈防震减灾投入的不平衡程度较高,廊坊、保定、张家口、承德、沧州等市地震脆弱性显著;总体来说,经济因素对地震脆弱性排序的影响占据了首要地位。
This paper discussed the earthquake disaster vulnerability from the natural,social and economic views and established the evaluation index system based on statistical yearbook was.Making use of the weights obtained from earthquake samples by neural network training and grey theory,regional vulnerability to earthquake disaster was evaluated.Then,a case study earthquake disaster vulnerability evaluation was provided,which include ten cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan circle,and the effects of weights on the evaluation was discussed.Results show that,earthquake disaster reduction input among Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan circle is obviously unbalanced.The vulnerability of Langfang,Baoding,Zhangjiakou,Chengde,Cangzhou is at high level.In general,economic factor has the greatest influence on the evaluation result.
This paper discussed the earthquake disaster vulnerability from the natural,social and economic views and established the evaluation index system based on statistical yearbook was.Making use of the weights obtained from earthquake samples by neural network training and grey theory,regional vulnerability to earthquake disaster was evaluated.Then,a case study earthquake disaster vulnerability evaluation was provided,which include ten cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan circle,and the effects of weights on the evaluation was discussed.Results show that,earthquake disaster reduction input among Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan circle is obviously unbalanced.The vulnerability of Langfang,Baoding,Zhangjiakou,Chengde,Cangzhou is at high level.In general,economic factor has the greatest influence on the evaluation result.
引文
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[2]Cutter S L,Mitchell J T,Scott M S.Revealing the vulnerability of people and places:a case study of Georgetown County,South Carolina[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,2000,90(4):713-737.
[3]Méheux K,Parker E.Tourist sector perceptions of natural hazards in Vanuatu and the implications for a small island developing state[J].TourismManagement,2006,27(1):69-85.
[4]Duzgun H S B,Yucemen M S,Kalaycioglu H S,et al.An integrated earthquake vulnerability assessment framework for urban areas[J].NaturalHazards,2011,59(2):917-947.
[5]Noriega G R,Ludwig L G.Social vulnerability assessment for mitigation of local earthquake risk in Los Angeles County[J].Natural Hazards,2012,64(2):1341-1355.
[6]Freitas,Carvalho,Ximenes,et al.Socio-environmental vulnerability,disaster risk-reduction and resilience-building:lessons from theearthquake in Haiti and torrential rains in the mountain range close to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil[J].Ciência&Saúde Coletiva,2012,17(6):1577-1586.
[7]苏桂武,朱林,马宗晋,等.京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性变化的初步研究——空间变化[J].地震地质,2007,29(1):15-33.SU Guiwu,ZHU Lin,MA Zongjin,et al.A preliminary study on the changes of the regional scale macroscopic vulnerability to earthquake disastersof Beijing,Tinjin and Tangshan area--spatial changes[J].Seismology and Geology,2007,29(1):15-33.(in Chinese)
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[10]聂承静,杨林生,李海蓉.中国地震灾害宏观人口脆弱性评估[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(3):375-382.NIE Chengjing,YANG Linsheng,LI Hairong.Macro assessment of seismic population vulnerability in China[J].Progress in Geography,2012,31(3):375-382.(in Chinese)
[11]贾增科.基于Vague集的城市地震灾害综合脆弱性度量及其应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(4):3-7.JIA Zengke.Measurement of comprehensive vulnerability to urban earthquake disaster based on Vague set and it’s applications[J].China SafetyScience Journal,2012,22(4):3-7.(in Chinese)
[12]王瑛,史培军,王静爱.中国农村地震灾害特点及减灾对策[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(1):82-89.WANG Ying,SHI Peijun,WANG Jingai.Characteristics of seismic disaster in rural area and relative disaster reduction counter measures inChina[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(1):82-89.(in Chinese)
[13]王瑛.中国农村地震灾害脆弱性研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2012:21-146.WANG ying.Vulnerability of Rural Area Seismic Disaster in China[M].Beijing:Science Press,2012:21-146.(in Chinese)
[14]石勇,孙蕾,石纯,等.上海沿海六区县自然灾害脆弱性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(3):156-161.SHI Yong,SUN Lei,SHI Chun,at el.Assessment of vulnerability of six coastal districts in Shanghai to natural disasters[J].Journal of NaturalDisasters,2010,19(3):156-161.(in Chinese)
[15]石勇,许世远,石纯,等.自然灾害脆弱性研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(2):131-137.SHI Yong,XU Shiyuan,SHI Chun,at el.Progress in research on vulnerability of natural disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011,20(2):131-137.(in Chinese)
[16]张风华,谢礼立.城市防震减灾能力评估研究[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(4):57-64.ZHANG Fenghua,XIE Lili.Study on evaluation of city’s ability reducing earthquake disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2001,10(4):57-64.(in Chinese)
[17]张风华,谢礼立,范立础.城市防震减灾能力评估研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(3):318-329.ZHANG Fenghua,XIE Lili,FAN Lichu.Study on evaluation of cities’ability of reducing earthquake disasters[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2004,26(3):318-329.(in Chinese)
[18]谢礼立.城市防震减灾能力的定义及评估研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2006,26(6):1-10.XIE Lili.A method for evaluating cities’ability of reducing earthquake disasters[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2006,26(6):1-10.(in Chinese)
[19]刘莉,谢礼立.层次分析法在城市防震减灾能力评估中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(2):48-52.LIU Li,XIE Lili.Application of analytical hierarchy process in evaluation of cities’ability for earthquake disaster prevention and reduction[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2008,17(2):48-52.(in Chinese)
[20]刘莉,谢礼立,葛红.城市防震减灾能力评价中的可接受风险研究[J].世界地震工程,2009,25(1):82-87.LIU Li,XIE Lili,GE Hong.Research on acceptable risk level for the urban capacity of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction[J].WorldEarthquake Engineering,2009,25(1):82-87.(in Chinese)
[21]杜栋,庞庆华,吴炎.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].第2版.北京:清华大学出版社,2008:112-116.DU Dong,Pang Qinghua,Wu Yan.Modern Comprehensive Evaluation Method and Case Selection[M].2nd ed.Beijing:Tsinghua UniversityPress,2008:112-116.(in Chinese)
[22]杨理华,刘德林,赵喜柱,等.北京、天津、河北地震构造//马杏垣,等.中国岩石圈动力学地图集[Z].北京:中国地图出版社,1989.YANG Lihua,LIU Delin,ZHAO Xizhu,et al.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei seismotectonics//Ma Xingyuan,et al.Lithospheric Dynamics Atlas ofChina[Z].Beijing:SinoMaps Press,1989.(in Chinese)
[23]中国地震台网中心.历史地震信息查询[EB/OL].(2013-03-18)[2013-03-18].http://www.ceic.ac.cn/adv_search.jsp.The China Earthquake Networks Center.Historical earthquake information search[EB/OL].(2013-03-18)[2013-03-18].http://www.ceic.ac.cn/adv_search.jsp.(in Chinese)
[24]李雪英,张新东,胡斌.河北省数字遥测地震台网的监测能力[J].山西地震,2005(2):22-24,43.LI Xueying,ZHANG Xindong,HU Bin.Monitoring capacity of the digital telemetric seismic network of Hebei province[J].EarthquakeResearch in Shanxi,2005(2):22-24,43.(in Chinese)
[25]马亚杰,李永义,韩秀丽.基于人工神经网络的地震经济损失评估[J].世界地震工程,2007,23(1):146-150.MA Yajie,LI Yongyi,HAN Xuili.Earthquake economic loss estimation based on the ANN[J].World Earthquake Engineering,2007,23(1):146-150.(in Chinese)
[2]Cutter S L,Mitchell J T,Scott M S.Revealing the vulnerability of people and places:a case study of Georgetown County,South Carolina[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,2000,90(4):713-737.
[3]Méheux K,Parker E.Tourist sector perceptions of natural hazards in Vanuatu and the implications for a small island developing state[J].TourismManagement,2006,27(1):69-85.
[4]Duzgun H S B,Yucemen M S,Kalaycioglu H S,et al.An integrated earthquake vulnerability assessment framework for urban areas[J].NaturalHazards,2011,59(2):917-947.
[5]Noriega G R,Ludwig L G.Social vulnerability assessment for mitigation of local earthquake risk in Los Angeles County[J].Natural Hazards,2012,64(2):1341-1355.
[6]Freitas,Carvalho,Ximenes,et al.Socio-environmental vulnerability,disaster risk-reduction and resilience-building:lessons from theearthquake in Haiti and torrential rains in the mountain range close to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil[J].Ciência&Saúde Coletiva,2012,17(6):1577-1586.
[7]苏桂武,朱林,马宗晋,等.京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性变化的初步研究——空间变化[J].地震地质,2007,29(1):15-33.SU Guiwu,ZHU Lin,MA Zongjin,et al.A preliminary study on the changes of the regional scale macroscopic vulnerability to earthquake disastersof Beijing,Tinjin and Tangshan area--spatial changes[J].Seismology and Geology,2007,29(1):15-33.(in Chinese)
[8]苏桂武,马宗晋,朱林,等.京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性空间分异的变化[J].地质科技情报,2008,27(2):1-11.SU Gui wu,MA Zongjin,ZHU Lin,et al.Spatial differentiation changes of regional scale macroscopic vulnerability to earthquake disasters ofBeijing,Tianjin and Tangshan Area[J].Geological Science and Technology Information,2008,27(2):1-11.(in Chinese)
[9]苏桂武,马宗晋,朱林,等.京津唐地区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性变化研究[J].灾害学,2010,25(2):1-12.Su Guiwu,Ma Zongjin,Zhu Lin,et al.Research on changes of regional macroscopic vulnerability to earthquake disasters inBeijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2010,25(2):1-12.(in Chinese)
[10]聂承静,杨林生,李海蓉.中国地震灾害宏观人口脆弱性评估[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(3):375-382.NIE Chengjing,YANG Linsheng,LI Hairong.Macro assessment of seismic population vulnerability in China[J].Progress in Geography,2012,31(3):375-382.(in Chinese)
[11]贾增科.基于Vague集的城市地震灾害综合脆弱性度量及其应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(4):3-7.JIA Zengke.Measurement of comprehensive vulnerability to urban earthquake disaster based on Vague set and it’s applications[J].China SafetyScience Journal,2012,22(4):3-7.(in Chinese)
[12]王瑛,史培军,王静爱.中国农村地震灾害特点及减灾对策[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(1):82-89.WANG Ying,SHI Peijun,WANG Jingai.Characteristics of seismic disaster in rural area and relative disaster reduction counter measures inChina[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(1):82-89.(in Chinese)
[13]王瑛.中国农村地震灾害脆弱性研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2012:21-146.WANG ying.Vulnerability of Rural Area Seismic Disaster in China[M].Beijing:Science Press,2012:21-146.(in Chinese)
[14]石勇,孙蕾,石纯,等.上海沿海六区县自然灾害脆弱性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(3):156-161.SHI Yong,SUN Lei,SHI Chun,at el.Assessment of vulnerability of six coastal districts in Shanghai to natural disasters[J].Journal of NaturalDisasters,2010,19(3):156-161.(in Chinese)
[15]石勇,许世远,石纯,等.自然灾害脆弱性研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(2):131-137.SHI Yong,XU Shiyuan,SHI Chun,at el.Progress in research on vulnerability of natural disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011,20(2):131-137.(in Chinese)
[16]张风华,谢礼立.城市防震减灾能力评估研究[J].自然灾害学报,2001,10(4):57-64.ZHANG Fenghua,XIE Lili.Study on evaluation of city’s ability reducing earthquake disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2001,10(4):57-64.(in Chinese)
[17]张风华,谢礼立,范立础.城市防震减灾能力评估研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(3):318-329.ZHANG Fenghua,XIE Lili,FAN Lichu.Study on evaluation of cities’ability of reducing earthquake disasters[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2004,26(3):318-329.(in Chinese)
[18]谢礼立.城市防震减灾能力的定义及评估研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2006,26(6):1-10.XIE Lili.A method for evaluating cities’ability of reducing earthquake disasters[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2006,26(6):1-10.(in Chinese)
[19]刘莉,谢礼立.层次分析法在城市防震减灾能力评估中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(2):48-52.LIU Li,XIE Lili.Application of analytical hierarchy process in evaluation of cities’ability for earthquake disaster prevention and reduction[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2008,17(2):48-52.(in Chinese)
[20]刘莉,谢礼立,葛红.城市防震减灾能力评价中的可接受风险研究[J].世界地震工程,2009,25(1):82-87.LIU Li,XIE Lili,GE Hong.Research on acceptable risk level for the urban capacity of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction[J].WorldEarthquake Engineering,2009,25(1):82-87.(in Chinese)
[21]杜栋,庞庆华,吴炎.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].第2版.北京:清华大学出版社,2008:112-116.DU Dong,Pang Qinghua,Wu Yan.Modern Comprehensive Evaluation Method and Case Selection[M].2nd ed.Beijing:Tsinghua UniversityPress,2008:112-116.(in Chinese)
[22]杨理华,刘德林,赵喜柱,等.北京、天津、河北地震构造//马杏垣,等.中国岩石圈动力学地图集[Z].北京:中国地图出版社,1989.YANG Lihua,LIU Delin,ZHAO Xizhu,et al.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei seismotectonics//Ma Xingyuan,et al.Lithospheric Dynamics Atlas ofChina[Z].Beijing:SinoMaps Press,1989.(in Chinese)
[23]中国地震台网中心.历史地震信息查询[EB/OL].(2013-03-18)[2013-03-18].http://www.ceic.ac.cn/adv_search.jsp.The China Earthquake Networks Center.Historical earthquake information search[EB/OL].(2013-03-18)[2013-03-18].http://www.ceic.ac.cn/adv_search.jsp.(in Chinese)
[24]李雪英,张新东,胡斌.河北省数字遥测地震台网的监测能力[J].山西地震,2005(2):22-24,43.LI Xueying,ZHANG Xindong,HU Bin.Monitoring capacity of the digital telemetric seismic network of Hebei province[J].EarthquakeResearch in Shanxi,2005(2):22-24,43.(in Chinese)
[25]马亚杰,李永义,韩秀丽.基于人工神经网络的地震经济损失评估[J].世界地震工程,2007,23(1):146-150.MA Yajie,LI Yongyi,HAN Xuili.Earthquake economic loss estimation based on the ANN[J].World Earthquake Engineering,2007,23(1):146-150.(in Chinese)
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