地震灾害损失预测(综述)
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摘要
地震危害性评定和损失预测是一个富有挑战性的科学问题,对于减轻地震灾害具有十分重要的意义。本文对近年来地震危害性的研究的现状、问题、困难和发展的趋势进行了简要的综述。
Earthquake risk assessment is a very important scientific problem as well as a very challenging task. In recent years, many international scientific organizations promote and encourage studies which will lead to the integration of seismic hazard assessment, vulnerability evaluation, and loss estimation for future earthquakes. The authors reviewed the basic assessment methodology and problems involved, and some state of the art technique and the prospect of future development are given.
Earthquake risk assessment is a very important scientific problem as well as a very challenging task. In recent years, many international scientific organizations promote and encourage studies which will lead to the integration of seismic hazard assessment, vulnerability evaluation, and loss estimation for future earthquakes. The authors reviewed the basic assessment methodology and problems involved, and some state of the art technique and the prospect of future development are given.
引文
1 [美]地震工程委员会地震损失专家小组.未来地震损失估计.北京:地震出版社,1989
2 [美]应用技术委员会.加利福尼亚未来地震的损失估计.北京:地震出版社,1991
3 Research group for estimating loss from future earthquake.eatimation losses from earthquakes in China in the forthcoming 50 years.Seismological Press,1992
4 Thomas L.Holzer.Loma Prieta damage largely attribution to enhanced ground shaking.EOS.299． June 28,1994
5 Gerhard Berz.The insurance industry and IDNDR:common interest and task.Stop Disaster,N5,P25． 1994
6 USGS,The worldwide earthquake risk management (WWERM) project.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 92,Nov.6． 1992
7 G.Grunthal.European Macroseismic Scale 1992 (up-dated MSK-scale),1993
8 K.McGuire.The Practice of Earthquake Hazard Assessment.IASPEI and European Seismo1ogical Commission.1993
9 胡聿贤.地震工程学.北京:地震出版社,1988
10 C.A.Cornell.Engineering seismic risk analysis.BSSA.V58,1583～1606． 1968
11 G.Purcaru and H.Berckhemer.Quantative relations of seismic source parameters and a classification of earthquakes.Tectonophys.,84． 57～128． 1985
12 Gerassimos A.Papadopoulos.Nonlinearity of magnitude-frequence relation in the Hellenic arc-trench system and characteristic earthquake model.JGR.V98,B10,17737～17744,1993
13 Haresh Shah."Repeat"quakes may cause fewer deaths.more damage.Los Angeles Times,Aug.16,1994
2 [美]应用技术委员会.加利福尼亚未来地震的损失估计.北京:地震出版社,1991
3 Research group for estimating loss from future earthquake.eatimation losses from earthquakes in China in the forthcoming 50 years.Seismological Press,1992
4 Thomas L.Holzer.Loma Prieta damage largely attribution to enhanced ground shaking.EOS.299． June 28,1994
5 Gerhard Berz.The insurance industry and IDNDR:common interest and task.Stop Disaster,N5,P25． 1994
6 USGS,The worldwide earthquake risk management (WWERM) project.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 92,Nov.6． 1992
7 G.Grunthal.European Macroseismic Scale 1992 (up-dated MSK-scale),1993
8 K.McGuire.The Practice of Earthquake Hazard Assessment.IASPEI and European Seismo1ogical Commission.1993
9 胡聿贤.地震工程学.北京:地震出版社,1988
10 C.A.Cornell.Engineering seismic risk analysis.BSSA.V58,1583～1606． 1968
11 G.Purcaru and H.Berckhemer.Quantative relations of seismic source parameters and a classification of earthquakes.Tectonophys.,84． 57～128． 1985
12 Gerassimos A.Papadopoulos.Nonlinearity of magnitude-frequence relation in the Hellenic arc-trench system and characteristic earthquake model.JGR.V98,B10,17737～17744,1993
13 Haresh Shah."Repeat"quakes may cause fewer deaths.more damage.Los Angeles Times,Aug.16,1994
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