地震预警震级计算方法研究综述
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摘要
地震预警系统是减轻地震灾害的有效手段之一,世界上多个国家和地区都已经建立了地震预警系统,并在实际应用中取得了显著的减灾实效.由于地震预警系统应用中的高度时效性要求,预警震级计算是整个地震预警系统中最重要也是最困难的一部分.本文回顾总结了地震预警研究中采用的一些震级计算方法,并将其归纳为三大类算法:与初始周期相关的算法、与初始幅值相关的算法和与初始强度相关的算法.对每种算法都做了详尽介绍和仔细分析,同时列举出与该算法相关的研究成果.通过对这些算法的分析总结并结合我国地震观测台网的实际情况,作者推荐τc、Pd两种方法作为我国地震预警系统建设中优先采用的两种预警震级算法.
Earthquake early warning(EEW) system is one of the effective ways to mitigate earthquake hazards.Several countries and regions in the world have been built their EEW systems and achieved significant mitigation practical effectiveness during operations.Due to the high degree of timeliness requirements of EEW system,earthquake magnitude estimation is the most important also the most difficult part in the whole system.In this paper,we reviewed and summarized earthquake magnitude estimation methods that applied to EEW systems,and grouped them into three categories;those are methods associated with initial periods,methods associated with initial amplitudes and methods associated with initial intensities.We made detailed introduction of each method and analyzed them carefully,also we enumerate related research results of each method.Through these analyses and considering the actual situation of seismic networks in our country,the author recommends τc and Pd methods as the two priority magnitude estimation methods when we build the EEW system in our country.
Earthquake early warning(EEW) system is one of the effective ways to mitigate earthquake hazards.Several countries and regions in the world have been built their EEW systems and achieved significant mitigation practical effectiveness during operations.Due to the high degree of timeliness requirements of EEW system,earthquake magnitude estimation is the most important also the most difficult part in the whole system.In this paper,we reviewed and summarized earthquake magnitude estimation methods that applied to EEW systems,and grouped them into three categories;those are methods associated with initial periods,methods associated with initial amplitudes and methods associated with initial intensities.We made detailed introduction of each method and analyzed them carefully,also we enumerate related research results of each method.Through these analyses and considering the actual situation of seismic networks in our country,the author recommends τc and Pd methods as the two priority magnitude estimation methods when we build the EEW system in our country.
引文
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[18]Kanamori H.Real-time seismology and earthquake damagemitigation.Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences,2005,33:195-214.
[19]Iio Y.Slow initial phase of the P-wave velocity pulse generatedby microearthquakes.Geophysical Research Letters,1992,19(5):477-480.
[20]Iio Y.Observations of the slow initial phase generated bymicroearthquakes:Implications for earthquake nucleation andpropagation.Geophysical Research,1995,100(B8):15333-49.
[21]Umeda Y.High-amplitude seismic waves radiated from thebright spot of an earthquake.Tectonophysics,1990,175(1-3):81-92.
[22]Umeda Y.The bright spot of an earthquake.Tectonophysics,1992,211(1-4):13-22.
[23]Ellsworth W,Heaton H.Real-time analysis of earthquakes:Early-warning systems and rapid damage assessment.Sensors,1994,11:27-33.
[24]Ellsworth W L,Beroza G C.Seismic evidence for an earthquakenucleation phase.Science,1995,268(5212):851-855.
[25]Nakatani M,Kaneshima S,Fukao Y.Size-dependentmicroearthquake initiation inferred from high-gain and low-noise observations at Nikko district,Japan.Journal ofGeophysical Research,2000,105(B12):28095-28109.
[26]Mori J,Kanamori H.Initial rupture of earthquakes in the1995Ridgecrest,California,sequence.Geophysical ResearchLetters,1996,23(18):2437-2440.
[27]Kilb D,Gomberg J.The initial subevent of the 1 9 9 4Northridge,California,earthquake:Is earthquake sizepredictable?Journal of Seismological,1994,3(4):409-420.
[28]Nakamura Y.On the urgent earthquake detection and alarmsystem(UrEDAS).Proc.Ninth World Conf.Earthq.Eng.,1988,7:673-678.
[29]Allen R M,Kanamori H.The potential for earthquake earlywarning in southern California.Science,2003,300(5620):786-789.
[30]Kanamori H,Hauksson E,Heaton T.Real-time seismologyand earthquake hazard mitigation.Nature,1997,390(6659):461-464.
[31]Wu Y M,Kanamori H.Experiment on an onsite early warningmethod for the Taiwan early warning system.Bulletin of theSeismological Society of America,2005,95(1):347-353.
[32]Wu Y M,Zhao L.Magnitude estimation using the first threeseconds P-wave amplitude in earthquake early warning.Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33:L16312.
[33]Wu Y M,Kanamori H.Development of an earthquake earlywarning system using real-time strong motion signals.Sensor,2008,8(1):1-9.
[34]马强.地震预警技术研究及应用.哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2008.Ma Q.Study an application on earthquake early warning(inChinese).Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,2008.
[35]Wolfe C J.On the properties of predominant-period estimatorsfor earthquake early warning.Bulletin of the SeismologicalSociety of America,2006,96(5):1961-1965.
[36]Lockman A B,Allen R M.Single-station earthquakecharacterization for early warning.Bulletin of theSeismological Society of America,2005,95(6):2029-2039.
[37]W u Y M,Shin T C,Tsai Y B.Quick and reliabledetermination of magnitude for seismic early warning.Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,1998,88(5):1254-1259.
[38]Lancieri M,Zollo A.A bayesian approach to the real-timeestimation of magnitude from the early P and S wavedisplacement peaks.Journal of Geophysical Research,2008,113:B12302.
[39]Odaka T,Ashiya K,Tsukada S,et al.A new method ofquickly estimating epicentral distance and magnitude from asingle seismic record.Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica,2003,93(1):526-532.
[40]Tsukada S,Detweiler S T,Ellsworth W L.The challenge ofearthquake disaster mitigation;earthquake early warning andestimated seismic intensity.Open-File Report,U.S.Geological Survey.2005:7.
[41]Alcik H,Ozel O,Apaydin N,et al.A study on warningalgorithms for Istanbul earthquake early warning system.Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36:L00B05.
[42]Campbell K W,Bozorgnia Y.Analysis of cumulative absolutevelocity(CAV)and JMA instrumental seismic intensity(IJMA)using the PEER-NGA strong motion database.Berkeley:Pacific Earthquake Engineering Center.
[43]Festa G,Zollo A,Lancieri M.Earthquake magnitude estimationfrom early radiated energy.Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35:L22307.
[44]Yamamoto S,Rydelek P,Horiuchi S,eta l.On the estimation ofseismic intensity in earthquake early warning systems.Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35:L07302.
[45]http://www.seisvol.kishou.go.jp/eq/kyoshin/kaisetsu/calc_sindo.htm
[46]Iervolino I,Convertito V,Giorgio M,et al.Real-time riskanalysis for hybrid earthquake early warning systems.Earthquake Engineering,2006,10(6):867-875.
[47]Cua G,Fischer M,Heaton T,et al.Real-time performanceof the virtual seismologist earthquake early warning algorithmin southern California.Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):740-747.
[2]Kamigaichi O,Saito M,Doi K,et al.Earthquake early warningin Japan:Warning the general public and future prospects.Seismological Research Letters,80(5):717-726.
[3]Allen R M,Brown H,Hellweg M,et al.Real-time test of theElarmS earthquake early warning methodology.GeophysicalResearch Letters,2007,112:B08311.
[4]Iglesias A,Singh S K,Ordaz M,et al.The seismic alert systemfor Mexico City:An evaluation of its performance and astrategy for its improvement.Bulletin of the SeismologicalSociety of America,2007,97(5):1718-1729.
[5]Erdik M,Fahjan Y,Ozel O,et al.Istanbul earthquake rapidresponse and the early warning system.Bulletin of EarthquakeEngineering,2003,1(1):157-163.
[6]Zollo A,Iannaccone G,Manfredi G.Development andexperimentation of a prototype system for seismic earlywarning applications in Campania region(Southern Italy).//Workshop on Seismic Early Warning for European Cities(Abstracts).Napoli,Italy,2004:23-25.
[7]Hsiao N C,Wu Y M,Shin T C,et al.Development ofearthquake early warning system in Taiwan.GeophysicalResearch Letters,2009,36:L00B02.
[8]李山有,马强,金星等.地震预警系统与智能应急控制系统研究.世界地震工程,2004,20(4):21-26.Li S Y,Ma Q,Jin X,et al.Study on earthquake earlywarning system and intelligent emergency controling system.World Earthquake Engineering(in Chinese),2004,20(4):21-26.
[9]朱福祥,郭迅,李山有等.重大工程地震预警初步研究.世界地震工程,2002,18(3):32-36.Zhu F X,Guo X,Li S Y,et al.Preliminary study onearthquake early warning system for significantinfrastructures.World Earthquake Engineering(in Chinese),2002,18(3):32-36.
[10]廖旭,黄河.企业地震预警系统应用研究.地震工程与工程振动,2002,22(6):142-149.Liao X,Huang H.Study on earthquake alarm system forenterprises.Earthquake Engineering and EngineeringVibration(in Chinese),2002,22(6):142-149.
[11]李勇.行星地球地震预警系统(测试版)的初步应用.地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1066-1069.Li Y.Elementary applications for a tentative earthquakewarning system upon the planet earth(Test Version).Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2007,22(4):1066-1069.
[12]李勇.行星地球的地震预警系统可监测汶川M8级地震.地球物理学进展,2008,23(3):969-971.Li Y.Possibility to detect Wenchuan M8earthquake by theearthquake warning system.Progress in Geophysics(inChinese),2008,23(3):969-971.
[13]袁志祥,单修政,徐世芳等.地震预警技术综述.自然灾害学报,2007,16(6):216-223.Yuan Z X,Shan X Z,Xu S F,et al.An overview ofearthquake early warning technology.Journal of NaturalDisasters(in Chinese),2007,16(6):216-223.
[14]倪四道.应急地震学的研究进展.科技赈灾,2008,23(4):311-316.Ni S D.Progress in real-time seismology.S&T for DisasterRelief(in Chinese),2008,23(4):311-316.
[15]万柯松,倪四道,曾祥方等.汶川大地震中的应急地震学.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2009,39(1):1-10.Wan K S,Ni S D,Zeng X F,et al.Real-time seismology ingreat Wenchuan earthquake.Sci Sin Terrae(in Chinese),2009,39(1):1-10.
[16]Olson E L,Allen R M.The deterministic nature of earthquakerupture.Nature,2005,438(7065):212-215.
[17]lson E L,Allen R M.Earth science:Is earthquake rupturedeterministic?(Reply).Nature,2006,442(7100):5-6.
[18]Kanamori H.Real-time seismology and earthquake damagemitigation.Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences,2005,33:195-214.
[19]Iio Y.Slow initial phase of the P-wave velocity pulse generatedby microearthquakes.Geophysical Research Letters,1992,19(5):477-480.
[20]Iio Y.Observations of the slow initial phase generated bymicroearthquakes:Implications for earthquake nucleation andpropagation.Geophysical Research,1995,100(B8):15333-49.
[21]Umeda Y.High-amplitude seismic waves radiated from thebright spot of an earthquake.Tectonophysics,1990,175(1-3):81-92.
[22]Umeda Y.The bright spot of an earthquake.Tectonophysics,1992,211(1-4):13-22.
[23]Ellsworth W,Heaton H.Real-time analysis of earthquakes:Early-warning systems and rapid damage assessment.Sensors,1994,11:27-33.
[24]Ellsworth W L,Beroza G C.Seismic evidence for an earthquakenucleation phase.Science,1995,268(5212):851-855.
[25]Nakatani M,Kaneshima S,Fukao Y.Size-dependentmicroearthquake initiation inferred from high-gain and low-noise observations at Nikko district,Japan.Journal ofGeophysical Research,2000,105(B12):28095-28109.
[26]Mori J,Kanamori H.Initial rupture of earthquakes in the1995Ridgecrest,California,sequence.Geophysical ResearchLetters,1996,23(18):2437-2440.
[27]Kilb D,Gomberg J.The initial subevent of the 1 9 9 4Northridge,California,earthquake:Is earthquake sizepredictable?Journal of Seismological,1994,3(4):409-420.
[28]Nakamura Y.On the urgent earthquake detection and alarmsystem(UrEDAS).Proc.Ninth World Conf.Earthq.Eng.,1988,7:673-678.
[29]Allen R M,Kanamori H.The potential for earthquake earlywarning in southern California.Science,2003,300(5620):786-789.
[30]Kanamori H,Hauksson E,Heaton T.Real-time seismologyand earthquake hazard mitigation.Nature,1997,390(6659):461-464.
[31]Wu Y M,Kanamori H.Experiment on an onsite early warningmethod for the Taiwan early warning system.Bulletin of theSeismological Society of America,2005,95(1):347-353.
[32]Wu Y M,Zhao L.Magnitude estimation using the first threeseconds P-wave amplitude in earthquake early warning.Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33:L16312.
[33]Wu Y M,Kanamori H.Development of an earthquake earlywarning system using real-time strong motion signals.Sensor,2008,8(1):1-9.
[34]马强.地震预警技术研究及应用.哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2008.Ma Q.Study an application on earthquake early warning(inChinese).Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,2008.
[35]Wolfe C J.On the properties of predominant-period estimatorsfor earthquake early warning.Bulletin of the SeismologicalSociety of America,2006,96(5):1961-1965.
[36]Lockman A B,Allen R M.Single-station earthquakecharacterization for early warning.Bulletin of theSeismological Society of America,2005,95(6):2029-2039.
[37]W u Y M,Shin T C,Tsai Y B.Quick and reliabledetermination of magnitude for seismic early warning.Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,1998,88(5):1254-1259.
[38]Lancieri M,Zollo A.A bayesian approach to the real-timeestimation of magnitude from the early P and S wavedisplacement peaks.Journal of Geophysical Research,2008,113:B12302.
[39]Odaka T,Ashiya K,Tsukada S,et al.A new method ofquickly estimating epicentral distance and magnitude from asingle seismic record.Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica,2003,93(1):526-532.
[40]Tsukada S,Detweiler S T,Ellsworth W L.The challenge ofearthquake disaster mitigation;earthquake early warning andestimated seismic intensity.Open-File Report,U.S.Geological Survey.2005:7.
[41]Alcik H,Ozel O,Apaydin N,et al.A study on warningalgorithms for Istanbul earthquake early warning system.Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36:L00B05.
[42]Campbell K W,Bozorgnia Y.Analysis of cumulative absolutevelocity(CAV)and JMA instrumental seismic intensity(IJMA)using the PEER-NGA strong motion database.Berkeley:Pacific Earthquake Engineering Center.
[43]Festa G,Zollo A,Lancieri M.Earthquake magnitude estimationfrom early radiated energy.Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35:L22307.
[44]Yamamoto S,Rydelek P,Horiuchi S,eta l.On the estimation ofseismic intensity in earthquake early warning systems.Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35:L07302.
[45]http://www.seisvol.kishou.go.jp/eq/kyoshin/kaisetsu/calc_sindo.htm
[46]Iervolino I,Convertito V,Giorgio M,et al.Real-time riskanalysis for hybrid earthquake early warning systems.Earthquake Engineering,2006,10(6):867-875.
[47]Cua G,Fischer M,Heaton T,et al.Real-time performanceof the virtual seismologist earthquake early warning algorithmin southern California.Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):740-747.
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