地震数值预报
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摘要
地震能否预报、地震预报遇到的种种困难如何克服?在思考这一问题时,不妨借助于气象预报的经验。气象预报从经验预报发展到数值预报,虽然用了约半个世纪的时间,但获得了成功。中国地震学界,对于地震预报的发展,也必须从经验预报发展为物理预报,对此几乎没有异议;但是物理预报的基本特点就是要基于定量的物理规律,进行数值预报,却鲜被提及。文章讨论了开展地震数值预报的五个主要环节的现状,认为地震数值预报现在应该提到规划的日程上来,设计我国地震数值预报的路线图,按照它的需要部署地震台站观测工作,开展地震数值预报的理论探讨。
Can earthquakes be predicted? How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction? This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earthquake prediction must also develop from empirical forecasting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.
Can earthquakes be predicted? How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction? This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earthquake prediction must also develop from empirical forecasting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.
引文
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[2]Richardson L F.Weather Prediction by Numerical Process.Cartibridge:Cartibridge Univ.Press,1922
[3]Gilbert G K.Science,1909,29(734):121
[4]Wood H O,Gutenberg B.Science,6September1935,219
[5]Press F,Brace W F.Science,17June1966,1575
[6]Hagiwara T,Rikitake T.Science,18August1967:761
[7]Scholz C,Sykes L R,Aggarwal Y P.Science,31Au-gust1973:803
[8]Mogi K.Science,18July1986,324
[9]傅承义.科学通报,1963,(3):30
[10]傅承义.地震战线,1971,(8):35
[11]国家地震局编辑组编.一九七六年唐山地震.北京:地震出版社,1982
[12]Bakun W H,Lindh A G.Science,16August1985,619
[13]Kerr R A.Science,19February1993,1120
[14]Bakun W H,Aagaard B,Dost B et al.Nature,2005,437:969
[15]Geller R J,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y et al.Science,1997,275(5306):1616
[16]Geller R J.Geophysical Journal International,1997,131(3):425
[17]Keilis-Borok V.Annu.Rev.Earth Planet.Sci.,2002,30:1
[18]Lombardi M,Marzocchi W.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2009,36:L21302
[19]Uyeda S,Kamogawa M.Eos,Transactions,American Geophysical Union,2008,89(39):363
[20]Chadha R K,Pandey A P,Kuempel H J.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2003,30(7):1416
[21]Bak P,Tang C,Wiesenfeld K.Physical Review Let-ters,1987,59(4):381
[22]Per Bak,chao Tang.Journal of Geophysical Research,1989,94(B1l):15635
[23]Barriere B,Turcotte D L.Phys.Rev.E,1994,49(2):1151
[24]Kerr R A.Science,30October1992,743
[25]Marzocchi W,Zechar J D.Seismological Research Letters,2011,82(3):442
[26]Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.Geophys.J.Int.,2000,143:438
[27]Shi Y L,Liu J,Zhang G M.Journal of Applied Probability,2001,38A:222
[28]石耀霖.中国地震,1992,8(2):23
[29]陈运泰.科技导报,2008,26(10):19
[30]Geller R J.Nature,2011,472:407
[31]梅世蓉、冯德益、张国民等著.中国地震预报概论.北京:地震出版社,1993
[32]张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰等.地震预报概论.北京:科学出版社,2001
[33]Press F.Scientific American,1975,232(5):14
[34]David Vere-Jones.Journal of Forecasting,1995,11:503
[35]张晁军,石耀霖.中国科学院研究生院学报,2005,22(3):258
[36]韦伟,孙若昧,石耀霖.中国科学(地球科学),2010,40(7):831
[37]石耀霖,曹建玲.地学前缘,2008,15(3):82
[38]柳畅,朱伯靖,石耀霖.地质学报,2012,86(1):157
[39]石耀霖.科学中国人,2012,(11):20
[40]Barbot S,Lapusta N,Avouac J-P.Science,2012,336:707
[41]刘启元,吴建春.地学前缘,2003,10(Suppl):217
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