数值模拟方法在地震预测研究中应用的初步探讨(Ⅰ)
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摘要
在地震危险性分析和预测研究中,自20世纪80年代初开始引入数值模拟方法以来,随着科学技术的不断进步,经历了由二维到三维,由线性到非线性,由弹性到粘弹性,由单场到多场耦合分析的改进和发展。地震的孕育和发生是复杂的物理过程,地震前的异常表现更是各种各样,但地震前的应变能量积累是地震发生的必要条件。地震预测分析必须首先考虑应变能量积累的状态。由于地球内部的难入性,直接测量震源深处的应力应变是很困难的事情,利用数值分析方法,建立地壳上地幔三维动力学模型,模拟岩层变形过程,是当前研究地壳能量转移、积累最有效的方法之一。
Earthquake preparation and occurrence is a complex physical process.Although the earthquake abnormalities are varied,the strain energy accumulation is requisite before an earthquake.Earthquake prediction analysis must consider the strain energy accumulation process.As hard to go into the Earth's interior,direct measurement of stress and strain in deep focus is very difficulty.The use of numerical analysis,which constructs three-dimensional dynamic models of the crust and upper mantle to simulate the rock deformation process,is currently one of the most effective methods to study the crustal energy transfer and accumulation.The simulation result of current crustal deformation is consistent with the existing GPS data around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis and its surrounding areas,in that the crustal horizontal displacement field of the eastern Tibetan Plateau rotates clockwise around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis.Current effective stress concentration areas mainly distribute along the block boundary fault belts around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis,especially along the southeast section of Jiali Fault,Moto Fault,Apalong Fault,India-Myanmar subduction zone and the Sichuan-Yunnan border region.It should be noted the risk of future strong earthquakes in these areas.In the adjacent interconnected tectonic areas,the blocks and faults are interrelated and interacted each other.When an earthquake occurs in a region,the rapid displacement and deformation of rock will inevitably lead to displacement and deformation of the associated blocks and faults;strain energy will transfer from one region to others.The numerical simulation results of deformation process in the Capital area from 1989 to 1998 clearly show that the high strain energy concentration region shifted from Datong area where 1989 earthquake(MS 5.8)occurred to Zhangbei area where 1998 earthquake happened.It illustrates that the application of numerical simulation analysis method may help us predict the possible strain energy transfer process,thus,providing the reference target regions for earthquake monitoring.
Earthquake preparation and occurrence is a complex physical process.Although the earthquake abnormalities are varied,the strain energy accumulation is requisite before an earthquake.Earthquake prediction analysis must consider the strain energy accumulation process.As hard to go into the Earth's interior,direct measurement of stress and strain in deep focus is very difficulty.The use of numerical analysis,which constructs three-dimensional dynamic models of the crust and upper mantle to simulate the rock deformation process,is currently one of the most effective methods to study the crustal energy transfer and accumulation.The simulation result of current crustal deformation is consistent with the existing GPS data around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis and its surrounding areas,in that the crustal horizontal displacement field of the eastern Tibetan Plateau rotates clockwise around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis.Current effective stress concentration areas mainly distribute along the block boundary fault belts around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis,especially along the southeast section of Jiali Fault,Moto Fault,Apalong Fault,India-Myanmar subduction zone and the Sichuan-Yunnan border region.It should be noted the risk of future strong earthquakes in these areas.In the adjacent interconnected tectonic areas,the blocks and faults are interrelated and interacted each other.When an earthquake occurs in a region,the rapid displacement and deformation of rock will inevitably lead to displacement and deformation of the associated blocks and faults;strain energy will transfer from one region to others.The numerical simulation results of deformation process in the Capital area from 1989 to 1998 clearly show that the high strain energy concentration region shifted from Datong area where 1989 earthquake(MS 5.8)occurred to Zhangbei area where 1998 earthquake happened.It illustrates that the application of numerical simulation analysis method may help us predict the possible strain energy transfer process,thus,providing the reference target regions for earthquake monitoring.
引文
[1]宋键,2010,喜马拉雅东构造结周边地区主要断裂现今运动特征与数值模拟研究,博十学位论文。
陈连旺,张培震,陆远忠,等.2008.川滇地区强震序列库仑破裂应力加卸载效应的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,51(5):1411—1421.CHEN Lian-wang,ZHANG Pei-zhen,LU Yuan-zhong,et al.2008.Numerical simulation of loading/unloading effect on Coulomb failure stress among strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan area[J].Chinese J Geophys,51(5):1411—1421(in Chinese).
胡勐乾,邓志辉,陆远忠.2010.有限元数值模拟方法在华北地区地震地质研究中的应用进展[J].地震地质,32(1):162—173.HU Meng-qian,DENG Zhi-hui,LU Yuan-zhong.2010.Advances in application of finite element numerical simulation to seismogeology in North China[J].Seismology and Geology,32(1):162—173(in Chinese).
嘉世旭,张先康.2005.华北不同构造块体地壳结构及其对比研究[J].地球物理学报,48(3):611—620.JIA Shi-xu,ZHANG Xian-kang.2005.Crustal structure and comparison of different tectonic blocks in North China[J].Chinese J Geophys,48(3):611—620(in Chinese).
刘洁,宋惠珍.1999.用数值模拟方法评估华北北部地震危险性[J].地震地质,21(3):221—228.LIU Jie,SONG Hui-zhen.1999.Estimation of earthquake risk for northern North China by numerical modeling[J].Seismology and Geology,21(3):221—228(in Chinese).
刘峡,傅容珊,杨国华,等.2006.用GPS资料研究华北地区形变场和构造应力场[J].大地测量与地球动力学,26(3):33—39.LIU Xia,FU Rong-shan,YANG Guo-hua et al.2006.2D deformation field and tectonic stress field constrained by GPS observations in North China[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,26(3):33—39(in Chinese).
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梅世蓉,梁北援.1989.唐山地震孕震过程的数值模拟[J].中国地震,5(3):9—17.MEI Shi-rong LIANG Bei-yuan.1989.A mathematic simulation for seismogenic process of the Tangshan earthquake[J].Earthquake Research in China,5(3):9—17(in Chinese).
王椿镛,楼海,吕智勇,等.2008.青藏高原东部地壳上地幔S波速度结构:下地壳流的深部环境[J].中国科学(D辑),38(1):22—32.WANG Chun-yong,LOU Hai,LZhi-yong,et al.2008.S-wave crustal and upper mantle's velocity structure in the eastern Tibetan Plateau-Deep environment of lower crustal flow[J].Science in China(Ser D),38(1):22—32(in Chinese).
王仁,何国琦,殷有泉.1980.华北地区地震迁移规律的数学模拟[J].地震学报,2(1):32—42.WANG Ren,HE Guo-qi,YIN You-quan.1980.A mathematical simulation for the pattern of seismic transference in North China[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2(1):32—42(in Chinese).
汪素云,陈培善.1980.中国及其邻区现代构造应力场的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,23(1):35—45.WANG Su-yun,CHEN Pei-shan.1980.The numerical simulation of contemporary tectonic stress field in China and its adjacent area[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,23(1):35—45(in Chinese).
张东宁,许忠淮.1999.中国大陆岩石层动力学数值模型的边界条件[J].地震学报,21(2):133—139.ZHANG Dong-ning,XU Zhong-huai.1999.Boundary conditions of the dynamic numerical model for the Chinese main-land lithosphere[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,21(2):133—139(in Chinese).
赵文津及INDEPTH项目组.2001.喜马拉雅山及雅鲁藏布江缝合带深部结构与构造研究[M].北京:地质出版社.ZHAO Wen-jin,INDEPTH Team.2001.Deep structure and tectonics of Himalaya Mountains and Yaluzangbu suture[M].Geological Publishing House,Beijing(in Chinese).
Denghai Bai,Martyn J Unsworth,Max A Meju,et al.2010.Crustal deformation of the eastern Tibetan plateau revealed by magnetotelluric imaging[J].Nature Geoscience,1—5.doi:10.1038.
England P,McKenzie D.1982.A thin viscous sheet model for continental deformation[J].Geophys J R Astr Soc,70:295—321.
Larson K M,Burgmann R,Bilham R,et al.1999.Kinematics of the India-Eurasia collision zone from GPS measurements[J].J Geophys Res,104:1077—1093.
Malaimani E C,Ravi Kumar N,Akilan A,et al.2008.GPS～geodesy with GNSS receivers for Indian plate kinematics'studies with the recent plate velocities estimated from GNSS data[J].J Ind Geophys,12(3):109—114.
Parsons T.2002.Post-1906stress recovery of the San Andreas Fault system calculated from three-dimensional finite element analysis[J].Journal of geophysical research,107(8):1—13.
Paul J,Burgmann R,Gaur V K,et al.2001.The motion and active deformation of India[J].Geophysical Research let-ters,28(4):647—650.
陈连旺,张培震,陆远忠,等.2008.川滇地区强震序列库仑破裂应力加卸载效应的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,51(5):1411—1421.CHEN Lian-wang,ZHANG Pei-zhen,LU Yuan-zhong,et al.2008.Numerical simulation of loading/unloading effect on Coulomb failure stress among strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan area[J].Chinese J Geophys,51(5):1411—1421(in Chinese).
胡勐乾,邓志辉,陆远忠.2010.有限元数值模拟方法在华北地区地震地质研究中的应用进展[J].地震地质,32(1):162—173.HU Meng-qian,DENG Zhi-hui,LU Yuan-zhong.2010.Advances in application of finite element numerical simulation to seismogeology in North China[J].Seismology and Geology,32(1):162—173(in Chinese).
嘉世旭,张先康.2005.华北不同构造块体地壳结构及其对比研究[J].地球物理学报,48(3):611—620.JIA Shi-xu,ZHANG Xian-kang.2005.Crustal structure and comparison of different tectonic blocks in North China[J].Chinese J Geophys,48(3):611—620(in Chinese).
刘洁,宋惠珍.1999.用数值模拟方法评估华北北部地震危险性[J].地震地质,21(3):221—228.LIU Jie,SONG Hui-zhen.1999.Estimation of earthquake risk for northern North China by numerical modeling[J].Seismology and Geology,21(3):221—228(in Chinese).
刘峡,傅容珊,杨国华,等.2006.用GPS资料研究华北地区形变场和构造应力场[J].大地测量与地球动力学,26(3):33—39.LIU Xia,FU Rong-shan,YANG Guo-hua et al.2006.2D deformation field and tectonic stress field constrained by GPS observations in North China[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,26(3):33—39(in Chinese).
罗焕炎,徐煜坚,宋惠珍,等.1982.青藏高原近代隆起原因及其与地震关系的有限元分析[J].地震地质,4(1):31—37.LUO Huan-yan,XU Yu-jian,SONG Hui-zhen,et al.1982.Finite element analysis for recent Qinghai-Xizang Plateau up-lifting and its relation to seismicity[J].Seismology and Geology,4(1):31—37(in Chinese).
梅世蓉,梁北援.1989.唐山地震孕震过程的数值模拟[J].中国地震,5(3):9—17.MEI Shi-rong LIANG Bei-yuan.1989.A mathematic simulation for seismogenic process of the Tangshan earthquake[J].Earthquake Research in China,5(3):9—17(in Chinese).
王椿镛,楼海,吕智勇,等.2008.青藏高原东部地壳上地幔S波速度结构:下地壳流的深部环境[J].中国科学(D辑),38(1):22—32.WANG Chun-yong,LOU Hai,LZhi-yong,et al.2008.S-wave crustal and upper mantle's velocity structure in the eastern Tibetan Plateau-Deep environment of lower crustal flow[J].Science in China(Ser D),38(1):22—32(in Chinese).
王仁,何国琦,殷有泉.1980.华北地区地震迁移规律的数学模拟[J].地震学报,2(1):32—42.WANG Ren,HE Guo-qi,YIN You-quan.1980.A mathematical simulation for the pattern of seismic transference in North China[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2(1):32—42(in Chinese).
汪素云,陈培善.1980.中国及其邻区现代构造应力场的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,23(1):35—45.WANG Su-yun,CHEN Pei-shan.1980.The numerical simulation of contemporary tectonic stress field in China and its adjacent area[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,23(1):35—45(in Chinese).
张东宁,许忠淮.1999.中国大陆岩石层动力学数值模型的边界条件[J].地震学报,21(2):133—139.ZHANG Dong-ning,XU Zhong-huai.1999.Boundary conditions of the dynamic numerical model for the Chinese main-land lithosphere[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,21(2):133—139(in Chinese).
赵文津及INDEPTH项目组.2001.喜马拉雅山及雅鲁藏布江缝合带深部结构与构造研究[M].北京:地质出版社.ZHAO Wen-jin,INDEPTH Team.2001.Deep structure and tectonics of Himalaya Mountains and Yaluzangbu suture[M].Geological Publishing House,Beijing(in Chinese).
Denghai Bai,Martyn J Unsworth,Max A Meju,et al.2010.Crustal deformation of the eastern Tibetan plateau revealed by magnetotelluric imaging[J].Nature Geoscience,1—5.doi:10.1038.
England P,McKenzie D.1982.A thin viscous sheet model for continental deformation[J].Geophys J R Astr Soc,70:295—321.
Larson K M,Burgmann R,Bilham R,et al.1999.Kinematics of the India-Eurasia collision zone from GPS measurements[J].J Geophys Res,104:1077—1093.
Malaimani E C,Ravi Kumar N,Akilan A,et al.2008.GPS～geodesy with GNSS receivers for Indian plate kinematics'studies with the recent plate velocities estimated from GNSS data[J].J Ind Geophys,12(3):109—114.
Parsons T.2002.Post-1906stress recovery of the San Andreas Fault system calculated from three-dimensional finite element analysis[J].Journal of geophysical research,107(8):1—13.
Paul J,Burgmann R,Gaur V K,et al.2001.The motion and active deformation of India[J].Geophysical Research let-ters,28(4):647—650.
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