广义极值分布在地震危险性分析中的应用
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摘要
利用广义极值分布研究地震最大发震震级的规律,给出了广义极值分布下地震危险性分析的相关公式与方法,并对台湾地区历史地震资料进行极值统计分析,发现最大震级超过7级的地震理论发震次数与实际发震次数完全一致,在此基础上预测了未来几年发震的危险性。
We study the maximum magnitude laws of earthquake by use of the generalized extreme value distribution,and give related methods and formula of seismic risk analysis with the distribution of generalized extreme value.From the statistical analysis of extreme values on historical earthquake data in Taiwan,we find out that the number of earthquake occurrence calculated by generalized extreme value distribution is completely consistent with that of actual earthquake occurrence when the maximum magnitude is greater than M7.On the basis of it,we predict the seismic risk in Taiwan in the coming years.
We study the maximum magnitude laws of earthquake by use of the generalized extreme value distribution,and give related methods and formula of seismic risk analysis with the distribution of generalized extreme value.From the statistical analysis of extreme values on historical earthquake data in Taiwan,we find out that the number of earthquake occurrence calculated by generalized extreme value distribution is completely consistent with that of actual earthquake occurrence when the maximum magnitude is greater than M7.On the basis of it,we predict the seismic risk in Taiwan in the coming years.
引文
陈虹,黄忠贤.1995.应用混合极值理论及最大似然法估计中国大陆地震危险性[J].地震学报,17(2):264-269.
陈虹.1996.应用混合极值理论及最大似然法估计东南沿海各地震区的地震危险性[J].华南地震,16(1):10-15.
陈培善,林邦慧.1973.极值理论在中长期地震预报的应用[J].地球物理学报,16(1):6-24.
傅征祥.1997.中国大陆地震活动性力学研究[M].北京:地震出版社.
高孟潭,贾素娟.1988.极值理论在工程地震中的应用[J].地震学报,10(3):317-326.
贾素娟,鄢家全.1996.利用历史地震影响烈度的统计特性进行地震区划[J].地震研究,19(3):277-285.
秦卫平.1983.定时段最大地震震级分布问题[J].地震研究,6(4):591-602.
史道济.2006.实用极值统计方法[M].天津:天津科学技术出版社.
夏成明,姜先畴,张寅生,等.2002.应用极值理论研究台湾和华东地区中强地震活动的相关性[J].地震学刊,22(4):40-45.
张卫东,李茂林,张秀梅,等.2005.极值理论在地震危险性分析中的应用与研究[J].东北地震研究,21(1):24-30.
De Haan L,Ferreira A.2006.Extreme value theory[M].New York:Springer,3-33.
Epstein B,Lomnitz C.1966.A model for the occurrence of the largest Earthquakes[J].Nature,211(5052):954-956.
Fisher R,Tippett L H.1928.Limiting forms of the frequency distributions of the largest or smallest member of a sample[J].Proc Camb PhilSoc,24(2):180-190.
Huillet T,Raynaud H F.1999.Rare events in a log-Weibull Scenario-Ap-plication to earthquake magnitude data[J].Eur Phys J B,12(3):457-469.
Nordquist J N.1945.Theory of largest values applied to earthquake mag-nitudes[J].Trana Am Geoph Union,26:29-31.
Yegulalp T M,Kuo J A.1974.Statistical prediction of the occurrence of maximum magnitude earthquakes[J].BSSA,64(2):393-414.
陈虹.1996.应用混合极值理论及最大似然法估计东南沿海各地震区的地震危险性[J].华南地震,16(1):10-15.
陈培善,林邦慧.1973.极值理论在中长期地震预报的应用[J].地球物理学报,16(1):6-24.
傅征祥.1997.中国大陆地震活动性力学研究[M].北京:地震出版社.
高孟潭,贾素娟.1988.极值理论在工程地震中的应用[J].地震学报,10(3):317-326.
贾素娟,鄢家全.1996.利用历史地震影响烈度的统计特性进行地震区划[J].地震研究,19(3):277-285.
秦卫平.1983.定时段最大地震震级分布问题[J].地震研究,6(4):591-602.
史道济.2006.实用极值统计方法[M].天津:天津科学技术出版社.
夏成明,姜先畴,张寅生,等.2002.应用极值理论研究台湾和华东地区中强地震活动的相关性[J].地震学刊,22(4):40-45.
张卫东,李茂林,张秀梅,等.2005.极值理论在地震危险性分析中的应用与研究[J].东北地震研究,21(1):24-30.
De Haan L,Ferreira A.2006.Extreme value theory[M].New York:Springer,3-33.
Epstein B,Lomnitz C.1966.A model for the occurrence of the largest Earthquakes[J].Nature,211(5052):954-956.
Fisher R,Tippett L H.1928.Limiting forms of the frequency distributions of the largest or smallest member of a sample[J].Proc Camb PhilSoc,24(2):180-190.
Huillet T,Raynaud H F.1999.Rare events in a log-Weibull Scenario-Ap-plication to earthquake magnitude data[J].Eur Phys J B,12(3):457-469.
Nordquist J N.1945.Theory of largest values applied to earthquake mag-nitudes[J].Trana Am Geoph Union,26:29-31.
Yegulalp T M,Kuo J A.1974.Statistical prediction of the occurrence of maximum magnitude earthquakes[J].BSSA,64(2):393-414.
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