数值模拟方法在地震预测研究中应用的初步探讨(Ⅱ)
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摘要
在地震危险性分析和预测研究中,随着数值模拟技术的进步和对地球动力学过程认识的不断深入,有可能发挥越来越重要的作用。数值模拟一个区域内部的构造变形,在正常时期与观测结果应该是比较接近的,而当局部地方处于孕震临界失稳状态时,其实测结果就有可能与模拟结果不协调,据此有可能为地震的中期至短期预测提供有价值的信息;应用数值模拟方法研究地震库仑应力变化,可模拟分析各种因素对库仑应力变化的大小和分布的影响,获得更接近实际的结果;计算机模拟合成地震目录是解决建立区域地震预测概率模型数据不足的有效方法,未来的发展方向应该是建立更接近实际的三维动力学模型,同时考虑多场耦合作用,模拟断层活动的规律。
With the advances in simulation techniques and understanding of geodynamic processes,numerical simulation is likely to play an increasingly important role in the research of seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction.In this paper,on the basis of the paper "A preliminary study on the application of numerical simulation methods to earthquake prediction research(Ⅰ)",the possible application of uncoordinated deformation analysis,Coulomb stress changes and earthquake probability modeling to the study of earthquake prediction is further discussed.When rock deforms from the elastic into the yield stage,the system is in a critical unstable state,the rock movement may deviate from the normal track and become complicated.The study results show that,before Wenan earthquake(MS 5.1)on July 4,2006,GPS velocity was well consistent with the numerical simulation speed in most areas of North China,while there were some differences in some regions,especially in the northeast of the North China Plain block,where big inconsistency in movement characteristics occurred,resulting perhaps from the preparation of Wenan earthquake.Research on earthquakes triggered by Coulomb stress change is a focus problem now.Numerical simulation may play an important role in the analysis of Coulomb stress changes.By constructing three-dimensional dynamic model,the effect of various factors on the value and distribution of Coulomb stress change can be simulated,and more realistic results can be obtained.By numerical simulation of Coulomb stress changes to seismic activities beneath Sichuan Zipingpu reservoirs,it is found that with the increase of reservoir water storage time,the pore pressure diffusion in the effective additional stress field will be gradually expanded to the range of more than 10km underground.The regional effective additional stress field and seismic activities show different characteristics in several typical regions.The United States Southern California Earthquake Center has tried to study the earthquake probability as research objectives.It is worthy of referencing in China's earthquake research.Computer simulation of synthetic earthquake catalog is an effective way to solve the lack of data.The future direction of development should be a more realistic three-dimensional dynamic model,taking into account the multi-field coupling between heat,fluid and etc.,improving hardware and software conditions and shortening the calculation time step,obtaining more complete information on fault movement,and simulating the fault activities.
With the advances in simulation techniques and understanding of geodynamic processes,numerical simulation is likely to play an increasingly important role in the research of seismic hazard analysis and earthquake prediction.In this paper,on the basis of the paper "A preliminary study on the application of numerical simulation methods to earthquake prediction research(Ⅰ)",the possible application of uncoordinated deformation analysis,Coulomb stress changes and earthquake probability modeling to the study of earthquake prediction is further discussed.When rock deforms from the elastic into the yield stage,the system is in a critical unstable state,the rock movement may deviate from the normal track and become complicated.The study results show that,before Wenan earthquake(MS 5.1)on July 4,2006,GPS velocity was well consistent with the numerical simulation speed in most areas of North China,while there were some differences in some regions,especially in the northeast of the North China Plain block,where big inconsistency in movement characteristics occurred,resulting perhaps from the preparation of Wenan earthquake.Research on earthquakes triggered by Coulomb stress change is a focus problem now.Numerical simulation may play an important role in the analysis of Coulomb stress changes.By constructing three-dimensional dynamic model,the effect of various factors on the value and distribution of Coulomb stress change can be simulated,and more realistic results can be obtained.By numerical simulation of Coulomb stress changes to seismic activities beneath Sichuan Zipingpu reservoirs,it is found that with the increase of reservoir water storage time,the pore pressure diffusion in the effective additional stress field will be gradually expanded to the range of more than 10km underground.The regional effective additional stress field and seismic activities show different characteristics in several typical regions.The United States Southern California Earthquake Center has tried to study the earthquake probability as research objectives.It is worthy of referencing in China's earthquake research.Computer simulation of synthetic earthquake catalog is an effective way to solve the lack of data.The future direction of development should be a more realistic three-dimensional dynamic model,taking into account the multi-field coupling between heat,fluid and etc.,improving hardware and software conditions and shortening the calculation time step,obtaining more complete information on fault movement,and simulating the fault activities.
引文
[1]胡勐乾,2010,并行计算三维数值模拟在华北地区现今构造变形分析中的应用研究,硕士学位论文。
[1]周斌,2010,水库诱发地震时空演化及其机理研究,博士学位论文。
[1]同674页。[1]
[1]同674页。[1]
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[1]周斌,2010,水库诱发地震时空演化及其机理研究,博士学位论文。
[1]同674页。[1]
[1]同674页。[1]
曹建玲,石耀霖,张怀,等.2009.青藏高原GPS位移绕喜马拉雅东构造结顺时针旋转成因的数值模拟[J].科学通报,54(2):224—234.CAO Jian-ling,SHI Yao-lin,ZHANG Huai,et al.2009.Numerical simulation of GPS observed clockwise rotation around the eastern Himalayan syntax in the Tibetan Plateau[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,54(2):224—234(in Chi-nese).
陈连旺,张培震,陆远忠,等.2008.川滇地区强震序列库仑破裂应力加卸载效应的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,51(5):1411—1421.CHEN Lian-wang,ZHANG Pei-zhen,LU Yuan-zhong,et al.2008.Numerical simulation of loading/unloading effect on Coulomb failure stress among strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan area[J].Chinese J Geophys,51(5):1411—1421(in Chinese).
洪汉净.1994.从地震模拟看匀阻段与大震的关系[J].地震地质,16(2):109—114.HONG Han-jing.1994.Seismic simulation:Correlation of resistance-homogenous fault segment with large earthquakes[J].Seismology and Geology,16(2):109—114(in Chinese).
嘉世旭,张先康.2005.华北不同构造块体地壳结构及其对比研究[J].地球物理学报,48(3):611—620.JIA Shi-xu,ZHANG Xian-kang.2005.Crustal structure and comparison of different tectonic blocks in North China[J].Chinese J Geophys,48(3):611—620(in Chinese).
金文正,汤良杰,杨克明,等.2007.龙门山冲断带构造特征研究主要进展及存在问题探讨[J].地质论评,54(1):37—46.JIN Wen-zheng,TANG Liang-jie,YANG Ke-ming,et al.2007.Deformation and zonation of the Longmenshan fold and thrust zone in the western Sichuan Basin[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,81(8):1072—1080.
刘桂萍,傅征祥.2002.1973年炉霍大地震(MS7.6)最大余震(MS6.3)的库仑破裂应力触发[J].中国地震,18(2):175—182.LIU Gui-ping,FU Zheng-xiang.2002.The triggering mechanism of the largest aftershock(MS6.3)of the1973Luhuo great earthquake(MS7.6)[J].Earthquake Research in China,18(2):175—182(in Chinese).
刘桂萍,石耀霖,马丽.1995.地震活动性的细胞自动机模型[J].西北地震学报,17(2):20—25.LIU Gui-ping,SHI Yao-lin,MA Li.1995.A cellular automation model of seismicity[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,17(2):20—25(in Chinese).
刘峡,傅容珊,杨国华,等.2006.用GPS资料研究华北地区形变场和构造应力场[J].大地测量与地球动力学,26(3):33—39.LIU Xia,FU Rong-shan,YANG Guo-hua,et al.2006.Deformation field and tectonic stress field constrained by GPS ob-servations in North China[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,26(3):33—39(in Chinese).
冉洪流.2006.时间相依模型与泊松模型计算结果的对比分析:以道孚及炉霍潜源为例[J].震灾防御技术,1(3):245—250.RAN Hong-liu.2006.Comparison of computational results derived from time-dependent and Possion models respectively[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,1(3):245—250(in Chinese).
石耀霖,曹建玲.2010.库仑应力计算及应用过程中若干问题的讨沧:以汶川地震为例[J].地球物理学报,53(1):102—110.SHI Yao-lin,CAO Jian-ling.2010.Some aspects in static stress change calculation-Case study on Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese J Geophys,53(1):102—110(in Chinese).
薛霆鸠,傅容珊,陈宇卫,等.2009.大尺度断层活动性数值模拟及地震学类比[J].地球物理学进展,24(5):1616—1626.XUE Ting-jiu,FU Rong-shan,CHEN Yu-wei.et al.2009.Numerical simulation of large scale fault activity and its seis-mological analogy[J].Progress in Geophysics,24(5):1616—1626(in Chinese).
叶金汉,郗绮霞,夏万人,等.1991.岩石力学参数手册[Z].北京:水利电力出版社.YE Jin-han,XI Qi-xia,XIA Wan-ren,et al.1991.Handbook on mechanical properties of rocks[Z].China Water Power Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
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