青海玉树与德令哈地热观测井在汶川与玉树地震前的异常特征
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摘要
本文较为系统地分析了青海省玉树与德令哈二口地热观测井自2007年以来的水温观测数据,发现这两口井对2008年5月12日四川汶川MS8.0级和2010年4月14日青海玉树MS7.1级地震前均有较明显的前兆异常,此外某些强地震前也有类似的异常信息.进一步对每口井的水温异常信息(诸如异常幅度、持续时间)进行了定量分析,以及每口井对应不同地震的异常曲线形态对比、异常数据的相关性分析,得出这两口井在不同地震前的水温异常形态表现出高度相似性;通过对这些曲线形态的认识与分析,为今后利用水温数据进行经验预报地震的探索开辟一条新路径.另外得出玉树井水温异常的幅度随震级与震中距的不同呈规律性变化,具体表现在震级越大、井震距越小,对应的异常幅度越大、异常持续时间也越长,且玉树井的异常主要是中长周期的异常,这种特性对利用水温异常特征判断未来地震的强度有重要意义;德令哈井则呈现出短临异常特性十分明显的特点,这种特性对利用该井水温数据来判断发震时间有着重要意义.
In this paper,the data of water temperature observed in Yushu and Delingha(Qinghai Province) geothermal observation wells since 2007 were analyzed systematically,by which precursory anomalies were found in both wells right before the Wenchuan Earthquake(Sichuan Province) and Yushu Earthquake(Qinghai Province) occurred on 12th May 2008 and 14th April 2010 respectively,and similar abnormal phenomena were also detected before other violent earthquakes happened.Furthermore,the information of the precursory anomalies such as anomaly amplitude and duration were analyzed quantitatively,the anomaly curves of each well for different earthquakes were compared in terms of shape,and the correlation of abnormal data was studied.It can be concluded that the shapes of precursory anomaly curves of the two wells for different earthquakes have many similarities.The exploration of the precursory anomalies and their curves will break new ground for earthquake prediction by means of water temperature.Besides,the author discovered that the water temperature anomaly amplitude of Yushu Well varied with earthquake magnitude and epicentral distance,which can be described in detail as follows: the greater the magnitude,the shorter the epicentral distance,while the greater the anomaly amplitude and the longer the anomaly duration.Also the Yushu Well is dominated by medium and long-term anomalies,which will have significant impact on predicting magnitude of earthquakes using water temperature anomalies.On the other hand,the anomalies of Delingha Well were short term and imminent,and this feature will be very useful when estimating the occurrence time of an earthquake by analyzing data of water temperature.
In this paper,the data of water temperature observed in Yushu and Delingha(Qinghai Province) geothermal observation wells since 2007 were analyzed systematically,by which precursory anomalies were found in both wells right before the Wenchuan Earthquake(Sichuan Province) and Yushu Earthquake(Qinghai Province) occurred on 12th May 2008 and 14th April 2010 respectively,and similar abnormal phenomena were also detected before other violent earthquakes happened.Furthermore,the information of the precursory anomalies such as anomaly amplitude and duration were analyzed quantitatively,the anomaly curves of each well for different earthquakes were compared in terms of shape,and the correlation of abnormal data was studied.It can be concluded that the shapes of precursory anomaly curves of the two wells for different earthquakes have many similarities.The exploration of the precursory anomalies and their curves will break new ground for earthquake prediction by means of water temperature.Besides,the author discovered that the water temperature anomaly amplitude of Yushu Well varied with earthquake magnitude and epicentral distance,which can be described in detail as follows: the greater the magnitude,the shorter the epicentral distance,while the greater the anomaly amplitude and the longer the anomaly duration.Also the Yushu Well is dominated by medium and long-term anomalies,which will have significant impact on predicting magnitude of earthquakes using water temperature anomalies.On the other hand,the anomalies of Delingha Well were short term and imminent,and this feature will be very useful when estimating the occurrence time of an earthquake by analyzing data of water temperature.
引文
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[12]邱鹏成,王永刚,杨广华.汶川MS8.0地震前青海地区数字化水温(地温)异常变化分析.防灾科技学院学报,2010,12(1):73-78.Qiu P C,Wang Y G,Yang G H.Analysis on undergroundwater temperature anomaly in Qinghai before WenchuanMS8.0earthquake.Journal of Institute of Disaster-PreventionScience and Technology(in Chinese),2010,12(1):73-78.
[13]闻学泽,杜方,张培震等.巴颜喀拉块体北和东边界大地震序列的关联性与2008年汶川地震.地球物理学报,2011,54(3):706-716.Wen X Z,Du F,Zhang P Z,et al.Correlation of majorearthquake sequences on the northern and eastern boundariesof the Bayan Har block,and its relation to the 2008Wenchuan earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(3):706-716.
[14]刁桂苓,王晓山,高国英等.以震源机制类型划分汶川、玉树地震构造块体归属.地球物理学报,2010,53(8):1778-1783.Diao G L,Wang X S,Gao G Y,et al.Tectonic blockattribution of Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes distinguishedby focal mechanism type.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(8):1778-1783.
[15]张国民,马宏生,王辉等.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动.地球物理学报,2005,48(3):602-610Zhang G M,Ma H S,Wang H,et al.Boundaries betweenactive-tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in the Chinamainland.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2005,48(3):602-610
[16]黄清华.一种评估地震前兆可信度的方法.地球物理学报,2005,48(3):637-642.Huang Q H.A method of evaluating reliability of earthquakeprecursors.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2005,48(3):637-642.
[17]王军.全国地热前兆台网对汶川Ms8.0地震响应的研究报告[硕士论文].中国地震局地壳应力研究所,2008.Wang J.The study about the response of national geothermalprecursor network in Wenchuan Ms8.0earthquake[Master′sthesis](in Chinese).Beijing:Institute of Crustal Dynamics,2008.
[18]王瑜青,陈桂兰,付子忠.地热观测资料清理及映震能力分析.地震学报,1994,16(增刊):148-152.Wang Y Q,Chen G L,Fu Z Z.Collating and the analysis ofearthquake reflecting ability to the geothermal observations.Acta Seismological Sinica(in Chinese),1994,16(Suppl.):148-152.
[19]万永革.数字信号处理的MATLAB实现.北京:科学出版社,2007:110-179.Wan Y G.Digital Signal Processing in MATLAB(inChinese).Beijing:Science Press,2007:110-179.
[20]薛年喜.MATLAB在数字信号处理中的应用.北京:清华大学出版社,2008:74-274.Xue N X.MATLAB in Digital Signal Processing(inChinese).Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2008.
[21]张军华,吕宁,田连玉等.地震资料去噪方法技术综合评述.地球物理学进展,2006,21(2):546-553.Zhang J H,LüN,Tian L Y,et al.An overview of themethods and techniques for seismic data noise attenuation.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2006,21(2):546-553.
[22]刘耀炜.动力加载作用与地下水物理动态过程研究[博士论文].北京:中国地质大学,2009.Liu Y W.Dynamic loading and physical dynamics process ofgroundwater[Doctoral Dissertation](in Chinese).Beijing:China University of Geosciences,2009.
[23]胡敦宽,曾小苹,赵明等.地热前兆预报地震的新方法研究.地震,1995,(3):234-239.Hu D K,Zeng X P,Zhao M,et al.Study on new method ofpredicting earthquake with geothermal precursor.Earthquake(in Chinese),1995,(3):234-239.
[24]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫等.青海、甘肃与宁夏地区未来大地震预测分析.地球物理学进展,2010,25(4):1168-1174.Qing S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.Prediction of strongearthquakes in the Qinghai,Gansu and Ningxia regions.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,25(4):1168-1174.
[25]车用太,鱼金子.地下流体的源兆、场兆、远兆及其在地震预报中的意义.地震,1997,17(3):283-289.Che Y T,Yu J Z.The focal precursors,field precursors andremote precursors of ground fluid before strong earthquakesand their significance in the earthquake prediction.Earthquake(inChinese),1997,17(3):283-289.
[26]刘序俨,郑小菁,王林等.承压井水位观测系统对体应变的响应机制分析.地球物理学报,2009,52(12):3147-3157.Liu X Y,Zheng X J,Wang L,et al.Response analysis of thewell-water-level system in confined aquifer.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(12):3147-3157.
[27]郭良迁,薄万举,杨国华等.玉树Ms7.1级地震前的形变应变场变化特征.地球物理学报,2011,54(8):1990-1996.Guo L Q,Bo W J,Yang G H,et al.The variation of thedeformation-strain field before Ms7.1 Yushu earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(8):1990-1996.
[2]Roeloffs E A.Persistent water level changes in a well nearPark field,California,due to local and distant earthquakes.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103(B1):869-889.
[3]Koizumi N Y,Kitagawa N,Matsumoto M,et al.Preseismicgroundwater level changes induced by crustal deformationsrelated to earthquake swarms off the east coast of IzuPeninsula,Japan.Geophys Res.Lett.,2004,31:1-5.
[4]Kitagawa Y,Koizumi N,Takahashi M,et al.Changes ingroundwater levels or pressures associated with the 2004earthquake off the west coast of northern Sumatra(M9.0).Earth,Planets Space,2006,58(2):173-179.
[5]Wilcock W S D.Physical response of mid-ocean ridgehydrothermal systems to local earthquakes.GeochemistryGeophysics Geosystems,2004,5(11):Q11009.
[6]Montgomery D R,Manga M.Streamflow and water wellresponses to earthquakes.Science,2003,300(5628):2047-2049.
[7]King C Y,Azuma S,Igarashi G,et al.Earthquake-relatedwater-level changes at 16closely clustered wells in Tono,central Japan.J.Geophys.Res.,1999,104(B6):13073-13082.
[8]付子忠.地热动态观测与地热前兆.地壳构造与地壳应力,1988,1(1):1-5.Fu Z Z.Dynamic observation and geothermal precursor.Tectonic Stress and Crustal(in Chinese),1988,1(1):1-5.
[9]陈沅俊,杨树信等.首都圈地震短临预报新方法观测与研究.北京:地震出版社,1994.Chen Y J,Yang S X,et al.The Observation and Study ofNew Earthquake Prediction Method in Capital Circle(inChinese).Beijing:Earthquake Press,1994.
[10]车用太,鱼金子,刘五洲等.张北—尚义地震的地下流体异常场及其成因分析.地震学报,1999,21(2):194-201.Che Y T,Yu J Z,Liu W Z,et al.The anomalous field ofunderground fluids related to the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquakeand cause of its formation.Acta Seismological Sinica(inChinese),1999,21(2):194-201.
[11]刘耀炜,孙小龙,王世芹等.井孔水温异常与2007年宁洱6.4级地震关系分析.地震研究,2008,31(4):347-353.Liu Y W,Sun X L,Wang S Q,et al.Relationship of bore-hole water temperature anomaly and the 2007Ning′er M6.4earthquake.Journal of Seismological Research(in Chinese),2008,31(4):347-353.
[12]邱鹏成,王永刚,杨广华.汶川MS8.0地震前青海地区数字化水温(地温)异常变化分析.防灾科技学院学报,2010,12(1):73-78.Qiu P C,Wang Y G,Yang G H.Analysis on undergroundwater temperature anomaly in Qinghai before WenchuanMS8.0earthquake.Journal of Institute of Disaster-PreventionScience and Technology(in Chinese),2010,12(1):73-78.
[13]闻学泽,杜方,张培震等.巴颜喀拉块体北和东边界大地震序列的关联性与2008年汶川地震.地球物理学报,2011,54(3):706-716.Wen X Z,Du F,Zhang P Z,et al.Correlation of majorearthquake sequences on the northern and eastern boundariesof the Bayan Har block,and its relation to the 2008Wenchuan earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(3):706-716.
[14]刁桂苓,王晓山,高国英等.以震源机制类型划分汶川、玉树地震构造块体归属.地球物理学报,2010,53(8):1778-1783.Diao G L,Wang X S,Gao G Y,et al.Tectonic blockattribution of Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes distinguishedby focal mechanism type.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(8):1778-1783.
[15]张国民,马宏生,王辉等.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动.地球物理学报,2005,48(3):602-610Zhang G M,Ma H S,Wang H,et al.Boundaries betweenactive-tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in the Chinamainland.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2005,48(3):602-610
[16]黄清华.一种评估地震前兆可信度的方法.地球物理学报,2005,48(3):637-642.Huang Q H.A method of evaluating reliability of earthquakeprecursors.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2005,48(3):637-642.
[17]王军.全国地热前兆台网对汶川Ms8.0地震响应的研究报告[硕士论文].中国地震局地壳应力研究所,2008.Wang J.The study about the response of national geothermalprecursor network in Wenchuan Ms8.0earthquake[Master′sthesis](in Chinese).Beijing:Institute of Crustal Dynamics,2008.
[18]王瑜青,陈桂兰,付子忠.地热观测资料清理及映震能力分析.地震学报,1994,16(增刊):148-152.Wang Y Q,Chen G L,Fu Z Z.Collating and the analysis ofearthquake reflecting ability to the geothermal observations.Acta Seismological Sinica(in Chinese),1994,16(Suppl.):148-152.
[19]万永革.数字信号处理的MATLAB实现.北京:科学出版社,2007:110-179.Wan Y G.Digital Signal Processing in MATLAB(inChinese).Beijing:Science Press,2007:110-179.
[20]薛年喜.MATLAB在数字信号处理中的应用.北京:清华大学出版社,2008:74-274.Xue N X.MATLAB in Digital Signal Processing(inChinese).Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2008.
[21]张军华,吕宁,田连玉等.地震资料去噪方法技术综合评述.地球物理学进展,2006,21(2):546-553.Zhang J H,LüN,Tian L Y,et al.An overview of themethods and techniques for seismic data noise attenuation.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2006,21(2):546-553.
[22]刘耀炜.动力加载作用与地下水物理动态过程研究[博士论文].北京:中国地质大学,2009.Liu Y W.Dynamic loading and physical dynamics process ofgroundwater[Doctoral Dissertation](in Chinese).Beijing:China University of Geosciences,2009.
[23]胡敦宽,曾小苹,赵明等.地热前兆预报地震的新方法研究.地震,1995,(3):234-239.Hu D K,Zeng X P,Zhao M,et al.Study on new method ofpredicting earthquake with geothermal precursor.Earthquake(in Chinese),1995,(3):234-239.
[24]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫等.青海、甘肃与宁夏地区未来大地震预测分析.地球物理学进展,2010,25(4):1168-1174.Qing S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.Prediction of strongearthquakes in the Qinghai,Gansu and Ningxia regions.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,25(4):1168-1174.
[25]车用太,鱼金子.地下流体的源兆、场兆、远兆及其在地震预报中的意义.地震,1997,17(3):283-289.Che Y T,Yu J Z.The focal precursors,field precursors andremote precursors of ground fluid before strong earthquakesand their significance in the earthquake prediction.Earthquake(inChinese),1997,17(3):283-289.
[26]刘序俨,郑小菁,王林等.承压井水位观测系统对体应变的响应机制分析.地球物理学报,2009,52(12):3147-3157.Liu X Y,Zheng X J,Wang L,et al.Response analysis of thewell-water-level system in confined aquifer.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(12):3147-3157.
[27]郭良迁,薄万举,杨国华等.玉树Ms7.1级地震前的形变应变场变化特征.地球物理学报,2011,54(8):1990-1996.Guo L Q,Bo W J,Yang G H,et al.The variation of thedeformation-strain field before Ms7.1 Yushu earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(8):1990-1996.
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