某些测震学指标与地震相关性研究
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摘要
通过对 1 0项测震学指标近 1 0 a的大范围时空扫描得出的有震和无震“预报”进行了与5 .0级以上地震的相关性研究 ,结果证明这 1 0项指标当显著性水平较低时 ,均可通过统计检验 ,表明是有效的提取异常指标。作者还依统计检验结果对 1 0项测震学指标与地震相关性好坏进行了排序 ,并通过分析得到各指标今后优化方向
Authors have collected the data of seismic and aseismic prediction elements concerning ten seismologically anomalous indices from 1987 to 1996, in the range of 29～37°N and 113～123°E, and studied the correlatability between these seismological indices and five earthquakes with M S ≥5.0. All the ten indices have past the statistical test when the significance level is lower. The results show that these anomalous indices are effective. Based on the results of statistical tests, authors arranged the ten indices in order of the good and bad, and the suggestions of the improvement direction are given in the paper.
Authors have collected the data of seismic and aseismic prediction elements concerning ten seismologically anomalous indices from 1987 to 1996, in the range of 29～37°N and 113～123°E, and studied the correlatability between these seismological indices and five earthquakes with M S ≥5.0. All the ten indices have past the statistical test when the significance level is lower. The results show that these anomalous indices are effective. Based on the results of statistical tests, authors arranged the ten indices in order of the good and bad, and the suggestions of the improvement direction are given in the paper.
引文
1 朱传镇,王琳瑛,张国民,等.地震预测研究进展与动向.国际地震动态,1996,(1):29～34.
2 VarotsosM,WyssM,KaganY Y,等著.毛桐恩,曾小萍,杨冬梅,等译.有关VAN方法的评价辩论.世界地震译丛,1997,(1):1～88,(2):1～88,(3):1～18.
3 许绍燮.地震预报能力评分.见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用化研究文集,地震学专辑.北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.586～589.
4 朱令人,朱成熹,洪时中,等.地震预报效能评价.见:国家地震局科技监测司编.中国地震预报方法研究.北京:地震出版社,1991.35～45
2 VarotsosM,WyssM,KaganY Y,等著.毛桐恩,曾小萍,杨冬梅,等译.有关VAN方法的评价辩论.世界地震译丛,1997,(1):1～88,(2):1～88,(3):1～18.
3 许绍燮.地震预报能力评分.见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用化研究文集,地震学专辑.北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.586～589.
4 朱令人,朱成熹,洪时中,等.地震预报效能评价.见:国家地震局科技监测司编.中国地震预报方法研究.北京:地震出版社,1991.35～45
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