甘肃测震台网监测能力及地震目录完整性分析
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摘要
区域地震台网监测能力的科学评估,是进行区域地震活动性和地震危险性分析的重要基础,最小完整性震级Mc是表征台网监测能力的关键.本文以甘肃测震台网的地震观测报告和区域地震目录为基础资料,分析了甘肃及邻区地震监测能力在时、空上的分布特征,利用"震级-序号"法、"最大曲率"法(MAXC)、拟合度分别为90%和95%的拟合优度检验法(GFT)及"完整性震级范围"法(EMR)等,研究了甘肃区域地震目录最小完整性震级Mc的时、空分布特征.结果表明,1980年以来甘肃测震台网的地震监测能力得到了逐步提高,模拟记录时期和"九五"期间甘东南地区的地震监测能力明显高于祁连山地震带中西段,"十五"测震台网运行后,甘肃及邻区的地震监测能力的空间差异明显缩小.最小完整性震级Mc和监测能力的时空分布特征具有较好的一致性.随着台网的改造,Mc逐步降低,"十五"台网运行后,甘肃及邻区的ML1.8以上地震基本完整.此外,还讨论了相关技术规范对区域台网地震目录的影响,并且提出了消除该影响的科学途径和有效方法.该研究结果可为甘肃及邻区地震活动性分析和地震危险性评价等相关研究提供参考.
The minimum magnitude of completeness(Mc) in earthquake catalogues,which reflects the monitoring capability,plays an important role in studying seismicity and assessing seismic hazards.Based on the observation bulletins and earthquake catalogues in Gansu region,we analyzed temporal and spatial variation of seismic network monitoring capability by using magnitude-order number,maximum curvature(MAXC),goodness-of-fit test(GFT) and entire magnitude range(EMR) methods.The results show that the monitoring capability has been significantly improved since 1980.The monitoring capability in the southeastern region of Gansu was considerably better than that in Qilian seismic belt during the "analog" recording period and the "9th Five-Year Plan" period.During the "10th Five-Year Plan" period(2001—2005),the spatial differences in earthquake monitoring capability near Gansu and its adjacent areas were significantly decreased.The spatial and temporal distribution of Mc is consistent with that of the monitoring capability.With the upgrading of seismic stations,the minimum magnitude is gradually lowered.Mc could reach as low as ML1.8 in Gansu and its adjacent areas during the "10th Five-Year Plan" period.In addition,we also discuss the effect of relevant provisions on regional earthquake catalogues and propose a way to eliminate the effect.The results can provide references for analyzing seismic activity and assessing seismic hazards in this region.
The minimum magnitude of completeness(Mc) in earthquake catalogues,which reflects the monitoring capability,plays an important role in studying seismicity and assessing seismic hazards.Based on the observation bulletins and earthquake catalogues in Gansu region,we analyzed temporal and spatial variation of seismic network monitoring capability by using magnitude-order number,maximum curvature(MAXC),goodness-of-fit test(GFT) and entire magnitude range(EMR) methods.The results show that the monitoring capability has been significantly improved since 1980.The monitoring capability in the southeastern region of Gansu was considerably better than that in Qilian seismic belt during the "analog" recording period and the "9th Five-Year Plan" period.During the "10th Five-Year Plan" period(2001—2005),the spatial differences in earthquake monitoring capability near Gansu and its adjacent areas were significantly decreased.The spatial and temporal distribution of Mc is consistent with that of the monitoring capability.With the upgrading of seismic stations,the minimum magnitude is gradually lowered.Mc could reach as low as ML1.8 in Gansu and its adjacent areas during the "10th Five-Year Plan" period.In addition,we also discuss the effect of relevant provisions on regional earthquake catalogues and propose a way to eliminate the effect.The results can provide references for analyzing seismic activity and assessing seismic hazards in this region.
引文
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甘肃省地方史志编纂委员会.1991.甘肃省志(十二卷)地震志[M].甘肃人民出版社:136--160.
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蒋长胜,吴忠良,李宇彤.2008.首都圈地区“重复地震”及其在区域地震台网定位精度评价中的应用[J].地球物理学报,51(3):817--827.
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李志海,蒋长胜,黄瑜,王宝柱.2011.新疆地区地震目录完整性分析和台网科学布局研究[J].地震学报,33(6):763--775.
刘小凤,梅秀苹,张小美.2003.青藏高原北部地区地震窗口特征及其预报意义[J].西北地震学报,25(4):359--364.
杨国栋,吴永信,徐辉.2006.2001年以来华亭小震活动增强现象的研究[J].西北地震学报,28(2):163--166.
Aki K.1965.Maximum likelihood estimate of bin the formula logN=a-bMand its confidence limits[J].Bull Earthquake Re Inst,Tokyo Unive,43:237--239.
Cao A M,Gao S S.2002.Temporal variation of seismic b-values beneath northeastern Japan island arc[J].Geophys ResLett,29(9):1334,doi:10.1029/2001GL013775.
Chernick M R.1999.Bootstrap Methods:A Practitioner’s Guide[M].Wiley-Interscience Publication,USA:1--25.
Efron B.1979.Bootstrap Methods:Another Look at the Jackknife[J].The Annals of Statistics,7(1):1--26.
Enescu B,Ito K.2002.Spatial analysis of the frequency-magnitude distribution and decay rate of aftershock activity ofthe2000Western Tottori earthquake[J].Earth Planet Space,54:847--859.
Gomberg J,Reasenberg P,Bodin P,Harris R.2001.Earthquake triggering by seismic waves following the Landers andHector Mine earthquakes[J].Nature,411:462--466.
Gutenberg R,Richter C F.1944.Frequency of earthquakes in California[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,34:185--188.
Iwata T.2008.Low detection capability of global earthquakes after the occurrence of large earthquakes:Investigation ofthe Harvard CMT catalogue[J].Geophys J Int,174:849--856.
Knopoff L.2000.The magnitude distribution of declustered earthquakes in Southern California[J].Proc Nat Acad Sci,97:11880--11884.
Main I.2000.Apparent breaks in scaling in the earthquake cumulative frequency-magnitude distribution:Fact or artifact[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,90:86--97.
Mignan A,Werner M J,Wiemer S,Chen C C,Wu Y M.2011.Bayesian estimation of the spatially varying completenessmagnitude of earthquake catalogs[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,101:1371--1385.
Ogata Y,Imoto M,Katsura K.1991.3-D spatial variation of b-values of magnitude-frequency distribution beneath theKanto district,Japan[J].Geophys J Int,104:135--146.
Rydelek P A,Sacks I S.1989.Testing the completeness of earthquake catalogues and the hypothesis of self-similarity[J].Nature,337:251--253.
Schorlemmer D,Neri G,Wiemer S,Mostaccio A.2003.Stability and significance tests for b-value anomalies:Examplefrom the Tyrrhenian Sea[J].Geophys Res Lett,30(16):1835,doi:10.1029/2003GL017335.
Schorlemmer D,Woessner J.2008.Probability of detecting and earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,98:2013--2117.
Stein R S.1999.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence[J].Nature,402:605--609.
Taylor D W A,Snoke J A,Sacks I S,Takanami T.1990.Nonlinear frequency-magnitude relationships for the Hokkaidocorner,Japan[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,80:340--353.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2000.Minimum magnitude of complete reporting in earthquake catalogs:Examples from Alaska,the Western United States,and Japan[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,90:859--869.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2002.Mapping spatial variability of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes[J].AdvGeophys,45:259--302.
Woessner J,Wiemer S.2005.Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogs:Estimating the magnitude of completenessand its uncertainties[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,95(4):684--698.
Woessner J,Hauksson E,Wiemer S,Neukomm S.2004.The1997Kagoshima(Japan)earthquake doublet:A quantitative analysis of aftershock rate changes[J].Geophys Res Lett,31:L03605,doi:10.1029/2003/GL018858.
甘肃省地方史志编纂委员会.1991.甘肃省志(十二卷)地震志[M].甘肃人民出版社:136--160.
韩立波,蒋长胜,李艳娥,郭祥云.2012.用于地震可预测性研究CSEP计划的南北地震带地区地震最小完整性震级Mc研究[J].地震,32(1):17--27.
蒋长胜,吴忠良,李宇彤.2008.首都圈地区“重复地震”及其在区域地震台网定位精度评价中的应用[J].地球物理学报,51(3):817--827.
蒋长胜,吴忠良.2011.玉树MS7.1地震前的中长期加速矩释放(AMR)[J].地球物理学报,54(6):1501--1510.
李志海,蒋长胜,黄瑜,王宝柱.2011.新疆地区地震目录完整性分析和台网科学布局研究[J].地震学报,33(6):763--775.
刘小凤,梅秀苹,张小美.2003.青藏高原北部地区地震窗口特征及其预报意义[J].西北地震学报,25(4):359--364.
杨国栋,吴永信,徐辉.2006.2001年以来华亭小震活动增强现象的研究[J].西北地震学报,28(2):163--166.
Aki K.1965.Maximum likelihood estimate of bin the formula logN=a-bMand its confidence limits[J].Bull Earthquake Re Inst,Tokyo Unive,43:237--239.
Cao A M,Gao S S.2002.Temporal variation of seismic b-values beneath northeastern Japan island arc[J].Geophys ResLett,29(9):1334,doi:10.1029/2001GL013775.
Chernick M R.1999.Bootstrap Methods:A Practitioner’s Guide[M].Wiley-Interscience Publication,USA:1--25.
Efron B.1979.Bootstrap Methods:Another Look at the Jackknife[J].The Annals of Statistics,7(1):1--26.
Enescu B,Ito K.2002.Spatial analysis of the frequency-magnitude distribution and decay rate of aftershock activity ofthe2000Western Tottori earthquake[J].Earth Planet Space,54:847--859.
Gomberg J,Reasenberg P,Bodin P,Harris R.2001.Earthquake triggering by seismic waves following the Landers andHector Mine earthquakes[J].Nature,411:462--466.
Gutenberg R,Richter C F.1944.Frequency of earthquakes in California[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,34:185--188.
Iwata T.2008.Low detection capability of global earthquakes after the occurrence of large earthquakes:Investigation ofthe Harvard CMT catalogue[J].Geophys J Int,174:849--856.
Knopoff L.2000.The magnitude distribution of declustered earthquakes in Southern California[J].Proc Nat Acad Sci,97:11880--11884.
Main I.2000.Apparent breaks in scaling in the earthquake cumulative frequency-magnitude distribution:Fact or artifact[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,90:86--97.
Mignan A,Werner M J,Wiemer S,Chen C C,Wu Y M.2011.Bayesian estimation of the spatially varying completenessmagnitude of earthquake catalogs[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,101:1371--1385.
Ogata Y,Imoto M,Katsura K.1991.3-D spatial variation of b-values of magnitude-frequency distribution beneath theKanto district,Japan[J].Geophys J Int,104:135--146.
Rydelek P A,Sacks I S.1989.Testing the completeness of earthquake catalogues and the hypothesis of self-similarity[J].Nature,337:251--253.
Schorlemmer D,Neri G,Wiemer S,Mostaccio A.2003.Stability and significance tests for b-value anomalies:Examplefrom the Tyrrhenian Sea[J].Geophys Res Lett,30(16):1835,doi:10.1029/2003GL017335.
Schorlemmer D,Woessner J.2008.Probability of detecting and earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,98:2013--2117.
Stein R S.1999.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence[J].Nature,402:605--609.
Taylor D W A,Snoke J A,Sacks I S,Takanami T.1990.Nonlinear frequency-magnitude relationships for the Hokkaidocorner,Japan[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,80:340--353.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2000.Minimum magnitude of complete reporting in earthquake catalogs:Examples from Alaska,the Western United States,and Japan[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,90:859--869.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2002.Mapping spatial variability of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes[J].AdvGeophys,45:259--302.
Woessner J,Wiemer S.2005.Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogs:Estimating the magnitude of completenessand its uncertainties[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,95(4):684--698.
Woessner J,Hauksson E,Wiemer S,Neukomm S.2004.The1997Kagoshima(Japan)earthquake doublet:A quantitative analysis of aftershock rate changes[J].Geophys Res Lett,31:L03605,doi:10.1029/2003/GL018858.
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