亚洲大地震的时间有序性与沙罗周期
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摘要
根据作者在1997年提出的“信息有序系列”的概念和方法,研究了一些亚洲大地震的时间有序性,本文列举1934—1970年期间亚洲M≥8级大地震,中国历史M≥8级大地震,兴都库什地区中深震(Ms≥7),结果表明,这些地震的一些时间有序性与反映日食序列变化的沙罗周期关系较密切。亚洲6个8级大地震时间间隔的数值在2130—2210d的范围内,这是地震时间有序性的一个好例子。这表明,时间有序性具有周期性不能描述的特性,它和新兴的复杂性科学有密切联系。
Based on the concept and method of the "informational ordered series" defined by author in 1997, the temporal orderliness of several large earthquakes in Aisa has been studied. In this paper, some examples based on the great earthquakes (M≥8) in Asia during 1934-1970, the historical great earthquakes(M≥8) in China and the large earthquakes (M≥7) in Hindu-Kush region, have been illustrated, the temporal ordering of above-mention earthquakes demonstrates clear evidences of correlation with the Saros period related to the regular variation of solar eclipse sequence. The fact, that five time intervals among six large earthquaks (M≥8) in Asia are located in narrow range of 2130-2210 d, can be served as one of best examples of temporal orderliness of earthquakes. It is demonstrated that temporal orderliness is characterized by particular feature, which can not be described by preiodicity, and has some close relation to the new complexity science abroad.
Based on the concept and method of the "informational ordered series" defined by author in 1997, the temporal orderliness of several large earthquakes in Aisa has been studied. In this paper, some examples based on the great earthquakes (M≥8) in Asia during 1934-1970, the historical great earthquakes(M≥8) in China and the large earthquakes (M≥7) in Hindu-Kush region, have been illustrated, the temporal ordering of above-mention earthquakes demonstrates clear evidences of correlation with the Saros period related to the regular variation of solar eclipse sequence. The fact, that five time intervals among six large earthquaks (M≥8) in Asia are located in narrow range of 2130-2210 d, can be served as one of best examples of temporal orderliness of earthquakes. It is demonstrated that temporal orderliness is characterized by particular feature, which can not be described by preiodicity, and has some close relation to the new complexity science abroad.
引文
1 徐道一,郑文振,安振声等.天体运行与地震预报.北京,地震出版社,1980 XU Dao-Yi, ZHENG Wen-Zheng, An Zheng-Sheng et al. The Movement of Celestial Bodies and Earthquake Prediction (in Chinese). Beijing: Seismological Press, 1980
2 Curchin J M, Pennington W D. Tidal triggering of intermediate and deep focus earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1987, 92(B13) :13957-13967
3 杜品仁,徐道一.天文地震学引论.北京:地震出版社,1989 DU Pin-Ren, XU Dao-Yi. An Introducton to Astroseismology (in Chinese). Beijing: Seismological Press, 1989
4 Lindholm C D, Havskov J. Sellevoll M A. Periodicity in seiamicity: examination of four catalogs. Tectonophysics, 1991, 191: 155-164
5 Fedotov S A, Sobolev G A, Boldyrev S A, et al. Long-and short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatka. Tectonophysics, 1997, 37: 305-371
6 徐道一,孙文鹏,仉宝聚等.初论地质信息有序系列.地学前缘,1997,4(3) :13-21 XU Dao-Yi, SUN Wen-Peng, ZHANG Bao-Ju et al. A preliminary study on the informational ordered series in geology. Earth Science Frontiers (in Chinese), 1997, 4(3) :13-21
7 XU Dao-Yi, Ouchi T. Temporal ordering of earthquakes (larger than M=8) in Asia and Saros period. Japan Earth and Planetary Science Joint Meeting, May 26-29, Abstracts, 1998, 311
8 刘步林.数学在天文学中的运用.北京:科学出版社,1979 LIU Bu-Lin. The applications of mathematics in astronomy (in Chinese). Beijing: Science Press, 1979
9 Utsu T. Recurrence of several earthquakes at almost equal time intervals. Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan. 1994, Series 2 (in Japanese), 47: 93-95
10 徐道一.论大地震发震时间的跨越式关系.见:国家地震局地质研究所编,地震危险性预测研究(1997年度),北京:地震出版社,1996． 52-55 XU Dao-Yi. On jumping-over relations of the occurrence times of large earthquakes. In: Institute of Geology, SSB ed. Research of the Prediction of Earthquake Risk (for 1997) . (in Chinese) Beijing: Seismological Press, 1996． 52-55
11 徐道一,黄建发,王湘南.中国大陆8级地震的有序性--一种新的预测方法.地震地质.1991,13(3) :231-236 XU Dao-Yi, HUANG Jian-Fa, WANG Xiang-Nan. Temporal orderliness of earthquakes (M≥8) on China mainland--a new approach to the prediction of earthquakes. Seismology and Geology. 1991． 13(3) : 231-236
12 徐道一,大内徹,蔡文伯等.兴都库什大地震(M≥7) 的时间有序性及其动力学意义,见:马宗晋等主编.构造地质学岩石圈动力学研究进展-庆贺马杏垣从事地质工作六十年暨八十寿辰.北京:地震出版社,1999,264-269 XU Dao-Yi, Ouchi, T, CAI Wen-Bo et al. Temporal orderliness of large earthquakes (M≥8) in Xindu Kush and it's dynamic significance. In: MA Zong-Jin et al. ed. Tectonic Geology-Advance in Dynamic Researches of the Lithosphere (in Chinese). Beijing: Seismological Press, 1999． 264-269
13 Kilston S, Knopoff L. Lunar-solar periodicities of large earthquakes in southern California. Nature, 1983,304:21-25
14 杜品仁.全球主要地震区中源和深源大地震的18． 6年轮回.地球物理学报,1996,1996,39(3) :327-335 DU Pin-Ren 18． 6 years cycles of large intermediate and deep focus earthquakes in the worlds's major seismic regions. Chinese J. Geophys (in Chinese), 1996, 39(3) : 327-335
15 杜品仁.18． 6年地震轮回及其成因初探.地球物理学报,1994,37(3) :362-369 Du Pin-Ren 18． 6 years seismic cycle and the preliminary exploration for its cause. Chinese J. Geophys (in Chinese). 1994, 37(3) : 362-369
16 杜品仁.根据地震活动的天文周期预测2020年前中国大陆的地震活动趋势.地震地质,1990,12(1) :1-5 DU Pin-Ren Seismicity tendency prediction before 2020 in China mainland from astronomic periodicities. Seismology and Geology, 1990, 12(1) : 6-11
17 赵德秀、赵文桐.论日食与水旱灾害的关系.西安:西北工业大学出版社,1992 ZHAO De-Xiu, ZHAO Wen-Tong. On the Relations Between Solar Eclipse and Catastrophes of Flood and Drought (in Chinese). Xi an: Northwest Industry University Press, 1992
18 徐道一.复杂性科学:21世纪的科学.科学时报,1999年10月23日,3版 XU Dao-Yi. Complexity science: the science in 21~(st) century. Scientific Time (in Chinese), 23/10/1999
2 Curchin J M, Pennington W D. Tidal triggering of intermediate and deep focus earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1987, 92(B13) :13957-13967
3 杜品仁,徐道一.天文地震学引论.北京:地震出版社,1989 DU Pin-Ren, XU Dao-Yi. An Introducton to Astroseismology (in Chinese). Beijing: Seismological Press, 1989
4 Lindholm C D, Havskov J. Sellevoll M A. Periodicity in seiamicity: examination of four catalogs. Tectonophysics, 1991, 191: 155-164
5 Fedotov S A, Sobolev G A, Boldyrev S A, et al. Long-and short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatka. Tectonophysics, 1997, 37: 305-371
6 徐道一,孙文鹏,仉宝聚等.初论地质信息有序系列.地学前缘,1997,4(3) :13-21 XU Dao-Yi, SUN Wen-Peng, ZHANG Bao-Ju et al. A preliminary study on the informational ordered series in geology. Earth Science Frontiers (in Chinese), 1997, 4(3) :13-21
7 XU Dao-Yi, Ouchi T. Temporal ordering of earthquakes (larger than M=8) in Asia and Saros period. Japan Earth and Planetary Science Joint Meeting, May 26-29, Abstracts, 1998, 311
8 刘步林.数学在天文学中的运用.北京:科学出版社,1979 LIU Bu-Lin. The applications of mathematics in astronomy (in Chinese). Beijing: Science Press, 1979
9 Utsu T. Recurrence of several earthquakes at almost equal time intervals. Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan. 1994, Series 2 (in Japanese), 47: 93-95
10 徐道一.论大地震发震时间的跨越式关系.见:国家地震局地质研究所编,地震危险性预测研究(1997年度),北京:地震出版社,1996． 52-55 XU Dao-Yi. On jumping-over relations of the occurrence times of large earthquakes. In: Institute of Geology, SSB ed. Research of the Prediction of Earthquake Risk (for 1997) . (in Chinese) Beijing: Seismological Press, 1996． 52-55
11 徐道一,黄建发,王湘南.中国大陆8级地震的有序性--一种新的预测方法.地震地质.1991,13(3) :231-236 XU Dao-Yi, HUANG Jian-Fa, WANG Xiang-Nan. Temporal orderliness of earthquakes (M≥8) on China mainland--a new approach to the prediction of earthquakes. Seismology and Geology. 1991． 13(3) : 231-236
12 徐道一,大内徹,蔡文伯等.兴都库什大地震(M≥7) 的时间有序性及其动力学意义,见:马宗晋等主编.构造地质学岩石圈动力学研究进展-庆贺马杏垣从事地质工作六十年暨八十寿辰.北京:地震出版社,1999,264-269 XU Dao-Yi, Ouchi, T, CAI Wen-Bo et al. Temporal orderliness of large earthquakes (M≥8) in Xindu Kush and it's dynamic significance. In: MA Zong-Jin et al. ed. Tectonic Geology-Advance in Dynamic Researches of the Lithosphere (in Chinese). Beijing: Seismological Press, 1999． 264-269
13 Kilston S, Knopoff L. Lunar-solar periodicities of large earthquakes in southern California. Nature, 1983,304:21-25
14 杜品仁.全球主要地震区中源和深源大地震的18． 6年轮回.地球物理学报,1996,1996,39(3) :327-335 DU Pin-Ren 18． 6 years cycles of large intermediate and deep focus earthquakes in the worlds's major seismic regions. Chinese J. Geophys (in Chinese), 1996, 39(3) : 327-335
15 杜品仁.18． 6年地震轮回及其成因初探.地球物理学报,1994,37(3) :362-369 Du Pin-Ren 18． 6 years seismic cycle and the preliminary exploration for its cause. Chinese J. Geophys (in Chinese). 1994, 37(3) : 362-369
16 杜品仁.根据地震活动的天文周期预测2020年前中国大陆的地震活动趋势.地震地质,1990,12(1) :1-5 DU Pin-Ren Seismicity tendency prediction before 2020 in China mainland from astronomic periodicities. Seismology and Geology, 1990, 12(1) : 6-11
17 赵德秀、赵文桐.论日食与水旱灾害的关系.西安:西北工业大学出版社,1992 ZHAO De-Xiu, ZHAO Wen-Tong. On the Relations Between Solar Eclipse and Catastrophes of Flood and Drought (in Chinese). Xi an: Northwest Industry University Press, 1992
18 徐道一.复杂性科学:21世纪的科学.科学时报,1999年10月23日,3版 XU Dao-Yi. Complexity science: the science in 21~(st) century. Scientific Time (in Chinese), 23/10/1999
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