不同地震破坏情景下应急避难所责任区评价研究——以北京市中心城区为例
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摘要
为定量研究地震应急避难场所责任区的划定并进行适宜性评价分析,以最小化任一街道(乡镇)的避难需求人口到避难所的最大距离为目标,以避难所容量、避难需求人口和街道(乡镇)完整性为约束条件,建立灾害避难所责任区评价模型。用加权Voronoi算法求解该模型。以北京市中心城区的灾害避难所为例,模拟不同地震破坏情景下的避难需求人口,得到各个灾害避难所的最佳避难需求人口责任区和不同情景下的人口配置缺口。实例分析表明:目前北京市中心城区的避难所容量均不能满足3种地震情景避难人口的需求;覆盖范围明显增加的避难所负责的避难需求人口相对较多,其容量相对不足。
In order to quantitatively assess allocation of residents to earthquake disaster shelters,a model based on weighted Voronoi diagram was built. The objective of the model is to minimize the maximum of evacuation distance from any township center to the potential shelter,and the shelter capacity,number of potential evacuee and subdistrict( township) integrity were taken as the constraints on the model. With the case study on central area of Beijing,the number of potential evacuees was first estimated under different earthquake damage scenarios,and then the optimal allocation of residents to shelters was obtained,finally the population configuration gap for each shelter was calculated. The result shows that shelter capacities of the central area of Beijing cannot meet the demand for three earthquake damage scenario,and that shelters with an increased covering area should serve more population but they generally lack a sufficiently high capacity.
In order to quantitatively assess allocation of residents to earthquake disaster shelters,a model based on weighted Voronoi diagram was built. The objective of the model is to minimize the maximum of evacuation distance from any township center to the potential shelter,and the shelter capacity,number of potential evacuee and subdistrict( township) integrity were taken as the constraints on the model. With the case study on central area of Beijing,the number of potential evacuees was first estimated under different earthquake damage scenarios,and then the optimal allocation of residents to shelters was obtained,finally the population configuration gap for each shelter was calculated. The result shows that shelter capacities of the central area of Beijing cannot meet the demand for three earthquake damage scenario,and that shelters with an increased covering area should serve more population but they generally lack a sufficiently high capacity.
引文
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[2]钱洪伟,尹香菊,佟艳.基于制约因素的城市应急避难场所运行能力评价指标体系构建——以汶川地震时某城市应急避难场所为例[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(6):158-164.QIAN Hong-wei,YIN Xiang-ju,TONG Yan.Research on city emergency shelter operation capacity evaluation index system--Taking a certain city emergency shelter during Wenchuan earthquake for example[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(6):158-164.
[3]徐伟,冈田宪夫,徐小黎,等.基于营养系统的灾害避难所规划的概念模型[J].灾害学,2008,23(4):59-65.XU Wei,OKADA Norio,XU Xiao-li,et al.Conceptual model of disaster shelter planning based on the vitae system[J].Natural Hazards,2008,23(4):59-65.
[4]Kashiwabara S,Ueno M,Morita T.Hanshin-Awaji daishinsai ni okeru hinanjyo nokenkyu(Research on the shelters in Hanshin-Awaji great earthquake disaster)[M].Osaka:Osaka University Press,1998:1-25.
[5]朱佩娟,张洁,肖洪,等.城市公共绿地的应急避难功能:基于GIS的格局优化研究[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(4):34-42.ZHU Pei-juan,ZHANG Jie,XIAO Hong,et al.Emergency refuge function of urban green space:GIS-based pattern optimization[J].Journal of Natural Disaster,2010,19(4):34-42.
[6]Wang Jue,Kwan Mei-Po,Ma LinB ing.Delimiting service area using adaptive crystal-growth Voronoi diagrams based on weighted planes:A case study in Haizhu district of Guangzhou in China[J].Applied Geography,2014,50:108-119.
[7]李刚,马东辉,苏经宇.基于加权Voronoi图的城市地震应急避难场所责任区的划分[J].建筑科学,2006,22(3):55-59.LI Gang,MA Dong-hui,SU Jing-yu.Weighted Voronoi diagrams for responsibility space regionalization of urban earthquake emergency shelters[J].Building Science,2006,22(3):55-59.
[8]武文杰,朱思源,张文忠.北京应急避难场所的区位优化配置分析[J].人文地理,2010,25(4):41-44.WU Wen-jie,ZHU Si-yuan,ZHANG Wen-zhong.Optimal allocation of emergency shelter facilities in Beijing[J].Human Geography,2010,25(4):41-44.
[9]Li X,Claramunt C,Kung H T,et al.A decentralized and continuity-based algorithm for delineating capacitated shelters'service areas[J].Environment and Planning B:Planning and Design,2008,35:593-608.
[10]Tai C,Lee Y,Lin C.Urban disaster prevention shelter location and evacuation behavior analysis[J].Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering,2010,9(1):215-220.
[11]汪建,赵来军,顾彩云.地震应急避难需求的系统动力学研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,21(1):121-128.WANG Jian,ZHAO Lai-jun,GU Cai-yun.System dynamical study on needs of emergency shelters for earthquakes[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,21(1):121-128.
[12]SHI Yong,SHI Chun,XU Shi-yuan,et al.Exposure assessment of rainstorm waterlogging on old-style residences in Shanghai based on scenario simulation[J].Natural hazards,2010,53(2):259-272.
[13]张杨,马干,史保平,等.华北地区烈度衰减模型建立及其用于震中区域和震级的定量估算[J].地震学报,2009,31(3):290-306.ZHANG Yang,MA Gan,SHI Bao-ping,et al.Development of seismic intensity attenuation model in North China and its application to quantitative estimation of earthquake location and magnitude[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2009,31(3):290-306.
[14]北京市规划委员会.北京市地震应急避难场所规划公示[EB/OL].[2010-11-25].http://www.bjghw.gov.cn/web/.Municipal Planning Commission of Beijing.Earthquake emergency shelters planning publicity of Beijing[EB/OL].[2010-11-25].http://www.bjghw.gov.cn/web/.
[15]北京统计信息网.北京市第六次全国人口普查资料汇编[EB/OL].[2013-01-01].http://www.bjstats.gov.cn/.Statistical Information Network of Beijing.Compilation of the sixth national census data of Beijing[EB/OL].[2013-01-01].http://www.bjstats.gov.cn/.
[16]北京市规划委员会.北京市地震局北京市中心城地震及应急避难场所(室外)规划纲要[Z],2006.Beijing Municipal Commission of Urban Planning.Beijing center city earthquake and emergency shelter(outdoor)program[Z],2006.
[17]赵来军,王珂,汪建.城市应急避难场所规划建设理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.3:33-48.ZHAO Lai-jun,WANG Ke,WANG Jian.Theory and methods for the planning and construction of urban emergency shelter[M].Beijing:Science Press,2014.3:33-48.
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