西秦岭北缘断裂破裂分段与地震危险性评估
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摘要
根据最新地质考察和历史地震考证结果,西秦岭北缘断裂带从东到西可划分为宝鸡、天水、武山、漳县、黄香沟和锅麻滩共6个次级断裂段。上述断裂既具有单段破裂,又具有多段组合破裂的特征。利用时间相依的地震潜势概率评估方法,对这6个单段分别进行地震危险性概率评估,其中黄香沟段和漳县段发生单段破裂的可能性最大,天水段发生单段破裂的概率次之。若发生组合破裂,黄香沟段和漳县段组合破裂可能性大。同时,根据沿断裂带的b值扫描图像分析结果显示,黄香沟段和天水附近应力积累较高,这两个地区应是未来发生强震的主要段落,值得关注。
We divide the north margin of Western Qingling Fault zone into six segments on the basis of new geology data,namely,Baoji,Tianshui,Wushan,Zhangxian,Huangxianggou and Guomatan segment from east to west.Each segment not only can rupture independently,but also can rupture together with others.The probability of seismic potential on these six segments and two combination segments is computed with the time-dependent seismic potential probability estimate method.We find from the result that,both the Huangxianggou and Zhangxian segments have the biggest probability of rupture in the future;and Tianshui segment is the second.If there will be a combined rupture,it is most likely to happen in Huangxianggou and Zhangxian segments,both of which have higher earthquake risk.We also compute b value along the fault zone.The image of b value indicates a high accumulated stress on the Huangxianggou and Tianshui segments.So we suppose that the two areas are the main locations where strong earthquakes may occur in the future.
We divide the north margin of Western Qingling Fault zone into six segments on the basis of new geology data,namely,Baoji,Tianshui,Wushan,Zhangxian,Huangxianggou and Guomatan segment from east to west.Each segment not only can rupture independently,but also can rupture together with others.The probability of seismic potential on these six segments and two combination segments is computed with the time-dependent seismic potential probability estimate method.We find from the result that,both the Huangxianggou and Zhangxian segments have the biggest probability of rupture in the future;and Tianshui segment is the second.If there will be a combined rupture,it is most likely to happen in Huangxianggou and Zhangxian segments,both of which have higher earthquake risk.We also compute b value along the fault zone.The image of b value indicates a high accumulated stress on the Huangxianggou and Tianshui segments.So we suppose that the two areas are the main locations where strong earthquakes may occur in the future.
引文
①闻学泽,2007,中强-弱及隐伏活动断层的现今活动习性与地震危险性评价方法,中国数字地震观测网络-城市活断层试验探测结题报告。
①同84页①。
①同84页①。
曹娟娟,刘百篪,闻学泽.2003.西秦岭北缘断裂带特征地震平均复发间隔的确定和地震危险性评价[J].地震研究,26(3):372—381.CAO Juan-juan,LIU Bai-chi,WEN Xue-ze.2003.Determination of the average recurrence intervals of characteristicearthquake and estimate of earthquake risk on Northern Xiqinling Faults[J].Journal of Seismological Research,26(3):372—381(in Chinese).
雷中生,袁道阳,葛伟鹏,等.2007.734年天水7级地震考证与发震构造分析[J].地震地质,29(1):51—62.LEI Zhong-sheng,YUAN Dao-yang,GE Wei-peng,et al.2007.Textual research on the Tianshui M7earthquake in734AD and analysis of its causative sructures[J].Seismology and Geology,29(1):51—62(in Chinese).
李传友.2005.青藏高原东北部几条主要断裂带的定量研究[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.LI Chuan-you.2005.Quantitative study on major active fault zones in northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[D].Ph Dthesis.Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing(in Chinese).
李传友,张培震,袁道阳,等.2006.西秦岭北缘断裂带黄香沟段晚第四纪水平位移特征及其微地貌响应[J].地震地质,28(3):391—404.LI Chuan-you,ZHANG Pei-zhen,YUAN Dao-yang,et al.2006.Late-Quanternary horizontal displacement and its associ-ated microgeomorphology of the Western Qinling Fault zone at Huangxianggou[J].Seismology and Geology,28(3):391—404(in Chinese).
李传友,张培震,张建玺,等.2007.西秦岭北缘断裂带黄香沟段晚第四纪活动表现与滑动速率[J].第四纪研究,27(1):54—63.LI Chuan-you,ZHANG Pei-zhen,ZHANG Jian-xi,et al.2007.Late-Quaternary activity and slip rate of the Western Qin-ling Fault zone at Huangxianggou[J].Quaternary Science,27(1):54—63(in Chinese).
滕瑞增,金瑶泉,李西候,等.1994.西秦岭北缘断裂带新活动特征[J].西北地震学报,16(2):85—90.TENG Rui-zeng,JIN Yao-quan,LI Xi-hou,et al.1994.Recent activity characteristics of the fault zone at northern edgeof Western Qinling mountains[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,16(2):85—90(in Chinese).
闻学泽.1995.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估[M].北京:地震出版社.WEN Xue-ze.1995.Quantitative Estimate of Seismic Potential on Active Faults[M].Seismologcial Press,Beijing(inChinese).
闻学泽.1999.中国大陆活动断裂段破裂地震复发间隔的经验分布[J].地震学报,21(6):616—622.WEN Xue-ze.1999.The empirical distribution of recurrence interval of active fault rupture in China mainland[J].ActaSeismological Sinica,21(6):616—622(in Chinese).
谢毓寿,蔡美彪主编.1983.中国地震历史资料汇编(第一卷)[Z].北京:科学出版社.XIE Yu-shou,CAI Mei-biao(eds).1983.Collection of Chinese History Earthquakes(1st Vol.)[Z].Science Press,Bei-jing(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,等.2004a.由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,26(3):294—303.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,FAN Jun,et al.2004a.Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe Fault zone from seismicity parameters[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(3):294—303(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2004b.山西断陷带太原-临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究[J].地震学报,26(4):387—395.YI Gui-Xi,WEN Xue-Ze,XU Xi-wei.2004b.Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky seg-ments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system[J].Acta Seismological Sinica,26(4):387—395(in Chinese).
易桂喜,范军,闻学泽.2005.由现今地震活动分析鲜水河断裂带中-南段活动习性与强震危险地段[J].地震,25(1):58—66.YI Gui-xi,FAN Jun,WEN Xue-ze.2005.Study on faulting behavior and fault-segments for potential strong earthquakerisk along the central-southern segment of Xianshuihe Fault zone based on current seismicity[J].Earthquake,25(1):58—66(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽.2007.多地震活动性参数在断裂带现今活动习性与地震危险性评价中的应用与问题[J].地震地质,29(2):254—271.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze.2007.The application and limitation of multiple seismicity parameters to assessing current faul-ting behavior and seismic potential of active fault zones[J].Seismology and Geology,29(2):254—271(in Chi-nese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,苏有锦.2008.川滇活动地块东边界强震危险性研究[J].地球物理学报,51(6):1719—1725.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,SU You-jin.2008.Study on the potential strong-earthquake risk for the eastern boundary of theSichuan-Yunnan active faulted-block,China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,51(6):1719—1725(in Chi-nese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,王思维,等.2006.由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性[J].中国地震,22(2):117—125.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,WANG Si-wei,et al.2006.Study on fault sliding behaviors and strong earthquake risk of theLongmenshan-Minshan Fault zones from current seismicity parameters[J].Earthquake Research in China,22(2):117—125(in Chinese).
袁道阳,杨明.1999.西秦岭北缘断裂带的位移累积滑动亏损特征及其破裂分段性研究[J].地震研究,22(4):382—389.YUAN Dao-yang,YANG Ming.1999.Research on the features of displacement cumulative slip deficits and segmentationin the northern margin fault zone of the Western Qinling[J].Journal of Seismological Research,22(4):382—389(in Chinese).
袁道阳,雷中生,葛伟鹏,等.2007.对143年甘谷西7级地震史料的新见解[J].西北地震学报,29(1):58—63.YUAN Dao-yang,LEI Zhong-sheng,GE Wei-peng,et al.2007.A new opinion about the west of Gangu M7.0earthquakein143A.D.in Gansu Province[J].Northwestern Seismological Joural,29(1):58—63(in Chinese).
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),33(增刊):12—20.ZHANG Pei-zhen,DENG Qi-dong,ZHANG Guo-min,et al.2003.The strong earthquakes and active block in China[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(Suppl):12—20(in Chinese).
Aki K.1965.Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula logN=a-bM and its confidence limits[J].Bull Earth-quake Res Inst,43:237—239.
Daniel Amorèse.2007.Applying a change-point detection method on frequency-magnitude distributions[J].Bull SeismSoc Am,97(5):1742—1749.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.1997.Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperities:An improved technique to calcu-late recurrence times[J].J Geophys Res,102(B7):15115—15128.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2000.Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs:Examples from Alaska,theWestern United States,and Japan[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,90(4):859—869.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2002.Mapping spatial variability of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes[J].Ad-vances in Geophysics,45:259—302.
Woessner J,Wiemer S.2005.Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues:Estimating the magnitude of completenessand its uncertainty[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,95(2):684—698.
①同84页①。
①同84页①。
曹娟娟,刘百篪,闻学泽.2003.西秦岭北缘断裂带特征地震平均复发间隔的确定和地震危险性评价[J].地震研究,26(3):372—381.CAO Juan-juan,LIU Bai-chi,WEN Xue-ze.2003.Determination of the average recurrence intervals of characteristicearthquake and estimate of earthquake risk on Northern Xiqinling Faults[J].Journal of Seismological Research,26(3):372—381(in Chinese).
雷中生,袁道阳,葛伟鹏,等.2007.734年天水7级地震考证与发震构造分析[J].地震地质,29(1):51—62.LEI Zhong-sheng,YUAN Dao-yang,GE Wei-peng,et al.2007.Textual research on the Tianshui M7earthquake in734AD and analysis of its causative sructures[J].Seismology and Geology,29(1):51—62(in Chinese).
李传友.2005.青藏高原东北部几条主要断裂带的定量研究[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.LI Chuan-you.2005.Quantitative study on major active fault zones in northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[D].Ph Dthesis.Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing(in Chinese).
李传友,张培震,袁道阳,等.2006.西秦岭北缘断裂带黄香沟段晚第四纪水平位移特征及其微地貌响应[J].地震地质,28(3):391—404.LI Chuan-you,ZHANG Pei-zhen,YUAN Dao-yang,et al.2006.Late-Quanternary horizontal displacement and its associ-ated microgeomorphology of the Western Qinling Fault zone at Huangxianggou[J].Seismology and Geology,28(3):391—404(in Chinese).
李传友,张培震,张建玺,等.2007.西秦岭北缘断裂带黄香沟段晚第四纪活动表现与滑动速率[J].第四纪研究,27(1):54—63.LI Chuan-you,ZHANG Pei-zhen,ZHANG Jian-xi,et al.2007.Late-Quaternary activity and slip rate of the Western Qin-ling Fault zone at Huangxianggou[J].Quaternary Science,27(1):54—63(in Chinese).
滕瑞增,金瑶泉,李西候,等.1994.西秦岭北缘断裂带新活动特征[J].西北地震学报,16(2):85—90.TENG Rui-zeng,JIN Yao-quan,LI Xi-hou,et al.1994.Recent activity characteristics of the fault zone at northern edgeof Western Qinling mountains[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,16(2):85—90(in Chinese).
闻学泽.1995.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估[M].北京:地震出版社.WEN Xue-ze.1995.Quantitative Estimate of Seismic Potential on Active Faults[M].Seismologcial Press,Beijing(inChinese).
闻学泽.1999.中国大陆活动断裂段破裂地震复发间隔的经验分布[J].地震学报,21(6):616—622.WEN Xue-ze.1999.The empirical distribution of recurrence interval of active fault rupture in China mainland[J].ActaSeismological Sinica,21(6):616—622(in Chinese).
谢毓寿,蔡美彪主编.1983.中国地震历史资料汇编(第一卷)[Z].北京:科学出版社.XIE Yu-shou,CAI Mei-biao(eds).1983.Collection of Chinese History Earthquakes(1st Vol.)[Z].Science Press,Bei-jing(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,等.2004a.由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,26(3):294—303.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,FAN Jun,et al.2004a.Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe Fault zone from seismicity parameters[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(3):294—303(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2004b.山西断陷带太原-临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究[J].地震学报,26(4):387—395.YI Gui-Xi,WEN Xue-Ze,XU Xi-wei.2004b.Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky seg-ments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system[J].Acta Seismological Sinica,26(4):387—395(in Chinese).
易桂喜,范军,闻学泽.2005.由现今地震活动分析鲜水河断裂带中-南段活动习性与强震危险地段[J].地震,25(1):58—66.YI Gui-xi,FAN Jun,WEN Xue-ze.2005.Study on faulting behavior and fault-segments for potential strong earthquakerisk along the central-southern segment of Xianshuihe Fault zone based on current seismicity[J].Earthquake,25(1):58—66(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽.2007.多地震活动性参数在断裂带现今活动习性与地震危险性评价中的应用与问题[J].地震地质,29(2):254—271.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze.2007.The application and limitation of multiple seismicity parameters to assessing current faul-ting behavior and seismic potential of active fault zones[J].Seismology and Geology,29(2):254—271(in Chi-nese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,苏有锦.2008.川滇活动地块东边界强震危险性研究[J].地球物理学报,51(6):1719—1725.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,SU You-jin.2008.Study on the potential strong-earthquake risk for the eastern boundary of theSichuan-Yunnan active faulted-block,China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,51(6):1719—1725(in Chi-nese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,王思维,等.2006.由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性[J].中国地震,22(2):117—125.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,WANG Si-wei,et al.2006.Study on fault sliding behaviors and strong earthquake risk of theLongmenshan-Minshan Fault zones from current seismicity parameters[J].Earthquake Research in China,22(2):117—125(in Chinese).
袁道阳,杨明.1999.西秦岭北缘断裂带的位移累积滑动亏损特征及其破裂分段性研究[J].地震研究,22(4):382—389.YUAN Dao-yang,YANG Ming.1999.Research on the features of displacement cumulative slip deficits and segmentationin the northern margin fault zone of the Western Qinling[J].Journal of Seismological Research,22(4):382—389(in Chinese).
袁道阳,雷中生,葛伟鹏,等.2007.对143年甘谷西7级地震史料的新见解[J].西北地震学报,29(1):58—63.YUAN Dao-yang,LEI Zhong-sheng,GE Wei-peng,et al.2007.A new opinion about the west of Gangu M7.0earthquakein143A.D.in Gansu Province[J].Northwestern Seismological Joural,29(1):58—63(in Chinese).
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),33(增刊):12—20.ZHANG Pei-zhen,DENG Qi-dong,ZHANG Guo-min,et al.2003.The strong earthquakes and active block in China[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(Suppl):12—20(in Chinese).
Aki K.1965.Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula logN=a-bM and its confidence limits[J].Bull Earth-quake Res Inst,43:237—239.
Daniel Amorèse.2007.Applying a change-point detection method on frequency-magnitude distributions[J].Bull SeismSoc Am,97(5):1742—1749.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.1997.Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperities:An improved technique to calcu-late recurrence times[J].J Geophys Res,102(B7):15115—15128.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2000.Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs:Examples from Alaska,theWestern United States,and Japan[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,90(4):859—869.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2002.Mapping spatial variability of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes[J].Ad-vances in Geophysics,45:259—302.
Woessner J,Wiemer S.2005.Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues:Estimating the magnitude of completenessand its uncertainty[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,95(2):684—698.
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