基于灾害系统理论的地震灾害链研究——中国汶川“5.12”地震和日本福岛“3.11”地震灾害链对比
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摘要
重大自然灾害中灾害链对灾情的巨大放大、累加作用,使灾害链研究备受关注。基于灾害系统理论,以中国汶川"5.12"地震灾害和日本福岛"3.11"地震灾害为例进行了地震灾害链梳理和区域对比,并探讨了不同灾害系统下,孕灾环境和承灾体对灾害链致灾成灾的影响。通过构建承灾体脆弱性与灾情累积关系的概念模型,阐述了灾害链对灾情的放大机制。研究表明:汶川地震具有陆地山区灾害链特征,主要灾害链为地震→崩塌/滑坡→(泥石流→)堰塞湖灾害链和地震→结构破坏→设施受损灾害链;日本地震具有海洋岛屿灾害链特征,主要灾害链为地震→海啸→核事故灾害链、地震→(海啸→)结构破坏→火灾/生命线系统损毁灾害链和地震→滑坡/火山/水库溃坝灾害链等;两场地震灾害中灾害链的成因及灾害链对灾情的放大过程差异显著;福岛地震灾害链危害巨大,使灾情在其他相关国家放大。
Based on the disaster system theory,this paper took two earthquake disasters,the 12 May Wenchuan earthquake in China and the 11 March Tohoku earthquake in Japan,as examples— to study the earthquake disaster chains.Then,those chains were compared to analyze their effects on cumulative losses.A concept model was developed about the relation between vulnerability and loss to explain earthquake chains' magnified effect on loss.The conclusions are: in the Wenchuan earthquake disaster,the main chains include the earthquake →landslide(→debris flow)→quake lake chain and the earthquake →structural damage → facilities damage chain;in the Tohoku Earthquake,the main chains are the earthquake→tsunami→nuclear accident chain,the earthquake(→tsunami)→fire/lifeline systems paralysis chain and the earthquake→landslides / soil liquefaction / subsidence / volcano chain.These two earthquake disasters have significant differences in both the factors that lead to the earthquake chains and the cumulative amplification effects on losses through disaster chains.Earthquake chains make the Tohoku earthquake magnified in other related countries.
Based on the disaster system theory,this paper took two earthquake disasters,the 12 May Wenchuan earthquake in China and the 11 March Tohoku earthquake in Japan,as examples— to study the earthquake disaster chains.Then,those chains were compared to analyze their effects on cumulative losses.A concept model was developed about the relation between vulnerability and loss to explain earthquake chains' magnified effect on loss.The conclusions are: in the Wenchuan earthquake disaster,the main chains include the earthquake →landslide(→debris flow)→quake lake chain and the earthquake →structural damage → facilities damage chain;in the Tohoku Earthquake,the main chains are the earthquake→tsunami→nuclear accident chain,the earthquake(→tsunami)→fire/lifeline systems paralysis chain and the earthquake→landslides / soil liquefaction / subsidence / volcano chain.These two earthquake disasters have significant differences in both the factors that lead to the earthquake chains and the cumulative amplification effects on losses through disaster chains.Earthquake chains make the Tohoku earthquake magnified in other related countries.
引文
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[26]宋胜武.汶川大地震工程震害调查分析与研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.
[27]谢洪,钟敦伦,矫震,等.2008年汶川地震重灾区的泥石流[J].山地学报,2009,27(4):501-509.
[28]汪月鹃.汶川震区北川县暴雨泥石流危险性评价[M].成都:成都理工大学,2009.
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[2]史培军.灾害研究的理论与实践[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),1991,(自然灾害研究专辑):37-42.
[3]李景保,肖洪,王克林,等.基于流域系统的暴雨径流型灾害链——以湖南省为例[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(4):30-38.
[4]王春振,陈国阶,谭荣志,等.“5.12”汶川地震次生山地灾害链(网)的初步研究[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2009,41:84-88.
[5]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):1-9.
[6]文传甲.论大气灾害链[J].灾害学,1994,9(3):1-6.
[7]马宗晋,高庆华,陈建英,等.减灾事业的发展和综合减灾[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(1):1-6.
[8]马宗晋.中国自然灾害和减灾对策(之六)[J].防灾科技学院学报,2008,10(1):1-6.
[9]肖盛燮.灾变链式理论及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[10]史培军.中国自然灾害系统地图集[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.
[11]余世舟,张令心,赵振东,等.地震灾害链概率分析及断链减灾方法[J].土木工程学报,2010,43(增刊):479-483.
[12]崔云,孔纪名,吴文平.地震堰塞湖灾害链成灾演化特征与防灾思路[J].科技创新导报,2010(30):221-223.
[13]Kristin Marano,David Wald,Trevor Allen.Globalearthquake casualties due to secondary effects:aquantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses[J]Nat Hazards,2010(52):319-328.
[14]David Burbidge,Phil Cummins.Assessing the threat toWestern Australia from tsunami generated by earthquakesalong the Sunda Arc[J].Nat Hazards,2007(43):319-331.
[15]Wang,H.,Sassa,K.,Xu,W.Analysis of a spatialdistribution of landslides triggered by the 2004 Chuetsuearthquakes of Niigata Prefecture,Japan[J].NaturalHazards,2007,41:43-60.
[16]Chain reaction(editorial)[J].NATURE GEOS-CIENCE,2011,4(5):269.
[17]灾害委员会科学技术部抗震救灾专家组.汶川地震灾害综合分析与评估[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[18]张继永.基于孕灾环境的突发事件连锁反应模型研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2010.
[19]吴圣林,姜振泉,郭建斌,等.岩土工程勘察[M].北京:中国矿业大学出版社,2008.
[20]苏筠,周洪建,崔欣婷.湖南鼎城农业旱灾脆弱性的变化及原因分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2005,14(4):522-527.
[21]新浪网.汶川大地震损失8451亿,次生灾害致1/3损失[EB/OL]:(2008-9-5)[2011-10-09].http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/dfjj/20080905/11565276599.shtml.
[22]张玮玮,肖邦国,鹿宁.日本地震对我国房屋建筑建设的启示[J].冶金经济与管理市场分析,2011,(3):9-10.
[23]王伟.强地震下不同年代住宅楼受损情况分析[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2009,41(增刊):49-52.
[24]SEEDS Asia:The Great Eastern Japan Earthquake(Situation Report 17)[EB/OL]:(2011-7-11)[2012-3-27].http://www.seedsasia.org/eng/sit_17.pdf.
[25]SEEDS Asia.“The Great Eastern Japan Earthquake:In depth damage report by affected cities”[EB/OL]:(2011-4-28)[2012-3-27].http://www.seedsasia.org/eng/Rep4.pdf.
[26]宋胜武.汶川大地震工程震害调查分析与研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.
[27]谢洪,钟敦伦,矫震,等.2008年汶川地震重灾区的泥石流[J].山地学报,2009,27(4):501-509.
[28]汪月鹃.汶川震区北川县暴雨泥石流危险性评价[M].成都:成都理工大学,2009.
[29]Arab Times.Dam Breaks In Northeast Japan,WashesAway Homes[EB/OL].(2011-3-14)[2011-10-07].http://www.arabtimesonline.com/NewsDetails/tabid/96/smid/414/ArticleID/166581/reftab/149/t/Dam-breaks-in-northeast-Japan-washes-away-homes/Default.aspx
[30]腾讯新闻网.日本余震引发福岛磐城市山体滑坡[EB/OL].(2011-4-11)[2011-10-07].http://news.qq.com/a/20110411/001153.htm.
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