玉树7.1级地震人员伤亡影响因素调查与初步分析
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摘要
文中在震后首先利用汶川地震中受灾的汶川县、北川县、都江堰市等37个重灾区人员伤亡数据,基于统计分析建立了各受灾区域烈度影响系数与相应的遇难率、受伤率和失踪率的双指数拟合关系,并利用该模型初步估算了玉树地震人员伤亡情况,通过对比实际值与估算值验证了该模型的可行性。其次,基于玉树县城(结古镇)14个区域的现场调查,初步分析了地震人员伤亡与灾区人口分布、建筑物空间分布、建筑物结构类型和用途等因素之间的关系,以及报道的伤亡人数随时间的变化,为未来快速估计大震后的人员伤亡提供基础数据。据现场不完全统计,在所调查区域内获得的人员伤亡数据为遇难1496人,占实际遇难人数的55.5%,人员伤亡空间分布主要呈现"北轻南重、东轻西重"的特点;玉树地震人员伤亡主要分布于住宅和学校建筑内,比例分别占到76.9%和15.2%;地震人员伤亡主要由土木石房屋和混凝土空心砌块房屋的倒塌引起,分别占到64.4%和30.1%。
According to the casualties data of 37 severe disaster areas in Wenchuan earthquake including Wenchuan county,Beichuan county,Dujiangyan city and so on,the double index fitting functions between intensity influence coefficient of each disaster area and mortality rate(injury rate and missing rate)are firstly established.Then,the casualties of Yushu earthquake are primarily estimated with this double index fitting functions.Finally,according to the survey in 14 representative regions of Yushu county,the relationships between mortality and total population,building distribution,structure type and purpose of building are discussed.Furthermore,the changes of reported mortalitiy with time are presented.According to the incomplete statistics in the site,the spatial distribution of mortality shows that in the south is much higher than in the north and in the west is much higher than in the east in Yushu County.Moreover,the mortality of Yushu earthquake are mainly distributing in the dwellings and school buildings,accounting for 76.9 percent and 15.2 percent,respectively.Most of the mortality is caused by the collapse of adobe(stone) buildings and concrete hollow block buildings,accounting for 64.4 percent and 30.1 percent,respectively.
According to the casualties data of 37 severe disaster areas in Wenchuan earthquake including Wenchuan county,Beichuan county,Dujiangyan city and so on,the double index fitting functions between intensity influence coefficient of each disaster area and mortality rate(injury rate and missing rate)are firstly established.Then,the casualties of Yushu earthquake are primarily estimated with this double index fitting functions.Finally,according to the survey in 14 representative regions of Yushu county,the relationships between mortality and total population,building distribution,structure type and purpose of building are discussed.Furthermore,the changes of reported mortalitiy with time are presented.According to the incomplete statistics in the site,the spatial distribution of mortality shows that in the south is much higher than in the north and in the west is much higher than in the east in Yushu County.Moreover,the mortality of Yushu earthquake are mainly distributing in the dwellings and school buildings,accounting for 76.9 percent and 15.2 percent,respectively.Most of the mortality is caused by the collapse of adobe(stone) buildings and concrete hollow block buildings,accounting for 64.4 percent and 30.1 percent,respectively.
引文
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[3]戴君武,陈洪富,王艳茹,等.玉树7.1级地震人员伤亡主要因素调查报告[R].中国地震局地震现场工作队,2010.
[4]中国新闻网,http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/news/2010/05-31/2314359.shtml.
[5]王艳茹,王宝光,戴君武,等.“5.12”汶川大地震人员伤亡的时空分布特点[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(6):52-56.
[6]白志宏.地震引致人员罹難空间分布之推估[D].台湾:国立中央大学,2006.
[7]孙柏涛,闫培雷,胡春峰,等.汶川8.0级大地震极重灾区映秀镇不同建筑结构震害概述及原因分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(5):1-9.
[8]Sun Baitao,Zhang Guixin.The Wenchuan earthquake creation of a rich database of building performance[J].Science China Technological Sci-ences,2010,53(10):2668-2680.
[9]杨玉成,孙柏涛.论多层砖砌体住宅楼的抗倒设计——汶川地震映秀镇漩口中学宿舍楼震害探究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2010,30(6):1-12.
[10]孙柏涛,陈洪富.深圳经济特区地震经济损失与人员伤亡预测技术报告[R].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2009.
[11]尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[12]马玉宏,谢礼立.关于地震人员伤亡因素的探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(3):84-90.
[13]新华网,http://news.xinhuanet.com/edu/2010-05/05/c_1274960.htm.
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