农村居民地震风险感知及影响因素分析——以云南省楚雄州的调研数据为例
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摘要
自然灾害风险感知水平是影响风险防范意识和行为的直接原因,研究个体对于自然灾害风险感知水平具有重要的现实意义。因此,本文以"农村居民地震风险感知与地震保险需求"微观调查数据作为样本,从多角度分析了云南省楚雄州农村居民对于地震风险的感知水平,同时研究了个人的灾害经历、风险暴露程度、个人社会经济特征和其他特有因素对于风险感知水平的影响。研究结果表明:灾害经历对于风险感知具有正负两种效应;风险暴露程度与风险感知水平呈现负相关的关系;诸如年龄、性别、收入等社会经济因素都会对个体的风险感知产生明显的影响;特有因素中,政府对于地震的宣传和发放的地震应急包会降低个人的风险感知水平。最后,本文基于上述结论,提出了相应的政策建议。
The risk perception of natural hazards affects the risk mitigation and prevention behavior directly.Therefore studying individual's risk perception of natural hazards is of a realistic significance. This article made a multi-angle analysis of farmers' risk perception of earthquake based on the microscopic investigation of "farmer's earthquake risk perception and earthquake insurance demand",and also studied the effects of other influencing factors such as hazard experience,risk exposure,socio-economic characteristics and other special factors. The results showed that:( i) hazard experience had both negative and positive effects;( ii) risk exposure would influence risk perception negatively;( iii) the socio-economic factors such as age,gender,income also had obvious effects on risk perception;( iv) among special factors,government publicity on earthquake and dispatched earthquake first-aid kit could decrease one's risk perception. We provided some suggestions based on these findings.
The risk perception of natural hazards affects the risk mitigation and prevention behavior directly.Therefore studying individual's risk perception of natural hazards is of a realistic significance. This article made a multi-angle analysis of farmers' risk perception of earthquake based on the microscopic investigation of "farmer's earthquake risk perception and earthquake insurance demand",and also studied the effects of other influencing factors such as hazard experience,risk exposure,socio-economic characteristics and other special factors. The results showed that:( i) hazard experience had both negative and positive effects;( ii) risk exposure would influence risk perception negatively;( iii) the socio-economic factors such as age,gender,income also had obvious effects on risk perception;( iv) among special factors,government publicity on earthquake and dispatched earthquake first-aid kit could decrease one's risk perception. We provided some suggestions based on these findings.
引文
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[28]Slovic P E.The perception of risk.[M].Earthscan Publications,2000.
[29]Slovic P.Perception of risk[J].Science,1987,236(4799):280-285.
[30]Terpstra T,Gutteling J M,Geldof G D,et al.The perception of flood risk and water nuisance[J].Water Science&Technology,2006,54(6):431-439.
[31]Terpstra T.Emotions,trust,and perceived risk:Affective and cognitive routes to flood preparedness behavior[J].Risk Analysis,2011,31(10):1658-1675.
[2]Arma C S I.Earthquake risk perception in Bucharest,Romania[J].Risk Analysis,2006,26(5):1223-1234.
[3]Arma C S I,Avram E.Perception of flood risk in Danube Delta,Romania[J].Natural hazards,2009,50(2):269-287.
[4]Barnett J,Breakwell G M.Risk perception and experience:hazard personality profiles and individual differences[J].Risk Analysis,2001,21(1):171-178.
[5]Benthin A,Slovic P,Severson H.A psychometric study of adolescent risk perception[J].Journal of adolescence,1993,16(2):153-168.
[6]Botzen W,van den Bergh J C.Risk attitudes to low-probability climate change risks:WTP for flood insurance[J].Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,2012,82(1):151-166.
[7]Botzen W,Aerts J,van den Bergh J C.Willingness of homeowners to mitigate climate risk through insurance[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68(8):2265-2277.
[8]Browne M J,Hoyt R E.The demand for flood insurance:empirical evidence[J].Journal of risk and uncertainty,2000,20(3):291-306.
[9]Fischhoff B,Slovic P,Lichtenstein S,et al.How safe is safe enough?A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits[J].Policy sciences,1978,9(2):127-152.
[10]Greenberg M R,Schneider D F.Gender differences in risk perception:Effects differ in stressed vs.nonstressed environments[J].Risk Analysis,1995,15(4):503-511.
[11]Grothmann T,Reusswig F.People at risk of flooding:why some residents take precautionary action while others do not[J].Natural hazards,2006,38(1-2):101-120.
[12]Ho M,Shaw D,Lin S,et al.How do disaster characteristics influence risk perception?[J].Risk Analysis,2008,28(3):635-643.
[13]Jianguang Z.Environmental hazards in the Chinese public’s eyes[J].Risk Analysis,1994,14(2):163-167.
[14]Kellens W,Terpstra T,De Maeyer P.Perception and communication of flood risks:a systematic review of empirical research[J].Risk Analysis,2013,33(1):24-49.
[15]Keown C F.Risk perceptions of Hong Kongese vs.Americans[J].Risk Analysis,1989,9(3):401-405.
[16]Kellens W,Zaalberg R,Neutens T,et al.An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast[J].Risk Analysis,2011,31(7):1055-1068.
[17]Kung Y,Chen S.Perception of earthquake risk in Taiwan:effects of gender and past earthquake experience[J].Risk Analysis,2012,32(9):1535-1546.
[18]Lai C,Tao J,Others.Perception of environmental hazards in Hong Kong Chinese[J].Risk Analysis,2003,23(4):669-684.
[19]Lindell M K,Perry R W.Household adjustment to earthquake hazard a review of research[J].Environment and behavior,2000,32(4):461-501.
[20]Lin S,Shaw D,Ho M.Why are flood and landslide victims less willing to take mitigation measures than the public?[J].Natural Hazards,2008,44(2):305-314.
[21]Lindell M K,Hwang S N.Households’perceived personal risk and responses in a multihazard environment[J].Risk Analysis,2008,28(2):539-556.
[22]Lindell M.North American cities at risk:Household responses to environmental hazards[M].Cities at Risk,Springer,2013,109-130.
[23]Mileti D S,Darlington J D.Role of Searching in Shaping Reactions to Earthquake Risk Information,The[J].Soc.Probs.1997,44:89.
[24]Palm R,Hodgson M,Blanchard R D,et al.Earthquake insurance in California:Environmental policy and individual decision-making[M].Westview press Boulder,CO,1990.
[25]Perry R W,Lindell M K.Predicting long-term adjustment to volcano hazard[J].International journal of mass emergencies and disasters,1990,8(2):117-136.
[26]Perry R W,Lindell M K.Volcanic risk perception and adjustment in a multi-hazard environment[J].Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research,2008,172(3):170-178.
[27]Peacock W G,Brody S D,Highfield W.Hurricane risk perceptions among Florida’s single family homeowners[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2005,73(2):120-135.
[28]Slovic P E.The perception of risk.[M].Earthscan Publications,2000.
[29]Slovic P.Perception of risk[J].Science,1987,236(4799):280-285.
[30]Terpstra T,Gutteling J M,Geldof G D,et al.The perception of flood risk and water nuisance[J].Water Science&Technology,2006,54(6):431-439.
[31]Terpstra T.Emotions,trust,and perceived risk:Affective and cognitive routes to flood preparedness behavior[J].Risk Analysis,2011,31(10):1658-1675.
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