日本地震活动周期性研究
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摘要
本文应用Morlet小波变换定量分析了日本不同区域地震活动的周期特征。结果表明,日本各区域存在着稳定的地震活动周期,其中北部地区的显著周期为20年和50年左右;中部地区为100年左右;南部地区20年和50年左右。1840年以来8级以上地震的时空分布特征显示,日本南部地区仍存在可能发生特大地震的危险。
This article divided the Japan region into three areas,then quantitatively analyzed its′ seismic activity period and its significance test using the method of Morlet wavelet.The results show: ① There are two principal periodic components,20 years and about 50 years in the north part of Japan.For the middle part,the principal period is about 100 years.And the principal periodic components are about 20 years and 50 years in the southern part.② On the basis of the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of M≥8.0 earthquakes,we held the opinion that there is still the risk of great earthquakes in southern Japan.
This article divided the Japan region into three areas,then quantitatively analyzed its′ seismic activity period and its significance test using the method of Morlet wavelet.The results show: ① There are two principal periodic components,20 years and about 50 years in the north part of Japan.For the middle part,the principal period is about 100 years.And the principal periodic components are about 20 years and 50 years in the southern part.② On the basis of the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of M≥8.0 earthquakes,we held the opinion that there is still the risk of great earthquakes in southern Japan.
引文
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[4]Mogi K.Active periods in the world′s chief seismic belts[J].Tectonophysics,1974,22(3):265-282.
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[7]范洪顺.1900年以来全球地震活动的初步分析[J].国际地震动态,2001,(2):12-17.
[8]马宏生,周龙泉,邵志刚,等.全球及中国大陆周边强震活动状态研究[J].地震,2010,30(2):29-37.
[9]马宗晋,傅征祥.1966—1976中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[10]徐纪人,赵志新,河野芳辉,等.日本南海海曹地震区域应力场及其板块构造力学特征[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(4):488-494.
[11]傅淑芳,刘宝诚.地震学教程[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.
[12]Mallat S.Zero-Crossings of a wavelet transform[J].IEEE Transaction on information theory,1991,37(4):1 019-1 033.
[13]Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Earthquake magnitude,intensity,energy and acceleration(second paper)[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,1956,46:105-145.
[14]Laura J P,David D N.Wavelet analysis of velocity dispersion of elasticinterface wave propagating a-long afracture[J].G R L,1995,22(11):1 329-1 332.
[15]宋治平,武安绪,王梅,等.小波变换在前兆观测资料分析中的应用[J].中国地震,2004,20(1):31-38.
[16]刘太中,荣平平,刘式达,等.气候突变的子波分析[J].地球物理学报,1995,38(2):158-162.
[17]林振山,邓自旺.子波气候诊断技术的的研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.
[18]Torrence C,Campo G P.A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J].Bul1Amer Meteor Soc,1998,79(1):61-78.
[19]徐道一,杜品仁.天体运行与地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[20]白春华,徐文耀.主磁场长期变化十年至百年尺度的周期[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4):904-911.
[2]傅容珊.地球动力学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.
[3]Benioff,Hugo.Global strain accumulation and release as revealed by great earthquakes[J].The Ge-ological Society of America,1951,62(4):331-338.
[4]Mogi K.Active periods in the world′s chief seismic belts[J].Tectonophysics,1974,22(3):265-282.
[5]于泳,洪汉净,刘培洵,等.全球大地震时空分布与动力学机制的初步研究[J].地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):5-10.
[6]马宗晋,杜品仁,任金卫,等.低纬度环球剪切带及其与环太平洋带大地震的幕式活动[J].中国科学(D辑),2006,36(4):326-331.
[7]范洪顺.1900年以来全球地震活动的初步分析[J].国际地震动态,2001,(2):12-17.
[8]马宏生,周龙泉,邵志刚,等.全球及中国大陆周边强震活动状态研究[J].地震,2010,30(2):29-37.
[9]马宗晋,傅征祥.1966—1976中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[10]徐纪人,赵志新,河野芳辉,等.日本南海海曹地震区域应力场及其板块构造力学特征[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(4):488-494.
[11]傅淑芳,刘宝诚.地震学教程[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.
[12]Mallat S.Zero-Crossings of a wavelet transform[J].IEEE Transaction on information theory,1991,37(4):1 019-1 033.
[13]Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Earthquake magnitude,intensity,energy and acceleration(second paper)[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,1956,46:105-145.
[14]Laura J P,David D N.Wavelet analysis of velocity dispersion of elasticinterface wave propagating a-long afracture[J].G R L,1995,22(11):1 329-1 332.
[15]宋治平,武安绪,王梅,等.小波变换在前兆观测资料分析中的应用[J].中国地震,2004,20(1):31-38.
[16]刘太中,荣平平,刘式达,等.气候突变的子波分析[J].地球物理学报,1995,38(2):158-162.
[17]林振山,邓自旺.子波气候诊断技术的的研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.
[18]Torrence C,Campo G P.A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J].Bul1Amer Meteor Soc,1998,79(1):61-78.
[19]徐道一,杜品仁.天体运行与地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1980.
[20]白春华,徐文耀.主磁场长期变化十年至百年尺度的周期[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4):904-911.
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