地震趋势预测的一种新模型研究

英文篇名：A new Model Study for the Future Earthquake Tendency Predicting
中文刊名：地球信息科学
英文刊名：Geo-information Science
作者：康春丽 ; 刘德富 ; 杜建国
英文作者：Kang Chunli Liu Defu Du Jianguo (Center for Analysis and Prediction ; CSB ; Beijing 100036 ; China)
中文关键词：地震趋势 ; 在线预测 ; 模型
英文关键词：Earthquake tendency On line prediction Model
出版日期：2001-03-30
机构：中国地震局分析预报中心,中国地震局分析预报中心,中国地震局分析预报中心北京,100036 ,北京,100036 ,北京,100036
年：2001
期：01
出版单位：地球信息科学

摘要

本文根据自激励门限自回归模型原理 ,对多年的地震活动形势进行了分析 ,建立了用于地震大形势分析的客观化数值预测模式 -在线预测模型。根据 1980年以来中国大陆实际发生的地震资料对这一模型的可靠性进行了检验。统计结果表明 ,利用在线预测模型在对未来地震趋势进行预测时 ,其年度形势特征量的最大误差为 0 .3,平均误差为 0 .12 ;因此该模型能够比较客观地反映地震形势变化的自然特征及规律 ,较好的预测未来的地震活动趋势。这一模型的建立为促进地震趋势向客观化、定量化预测方向发展 ,提供了一种科学途径
In this paper, according to the theory of "Self excitation Threshold Autoregressive Model", a new model-the objective numeric prediction pattern as well as "on line prediction model" is established by analyzing the situation of the earthquake activities for many years. The reliability of the model has been tested by the practical earthquake data in china mainland since 1980. The statistic indicates that the largest error of yearly position characteristic number ( M i ) is 0.3, the average error is 0.12, when predicting the future earthquake tendency by the model. Therefor, the model can reflect the natural characteristic and rules of the variation of the earthquake tendency objectively, and predict the future earthquake activities preferably. The model provides a scientific way to predict the earthquake tendency objectively and quantitatively.

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