地震结构爆裂理论与短临预测
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摘要
在地震结构爆裂动力学理论基础上,揭示了临震前兆波的客观机制。作为储能体的地震包体,其流体压力达到覆盖岩层的断裂强度和重力之和时,在引潮力的作用下,包体发生局部破裂,裂纹发生扩张,产生破裂流和破裂波,交替发生冲击加载和垮塌卸载,同潮汐波叠加,形成地震前兆共振波,以相速度和群速度向围岩传播,其振动频率和周期表征包体的固有频率和周期。波速和周期均可以被灵敏度高和抗干扰性能强的PS100HRT地电仪在地震爆发前捕捉到,从而可用于确定地震的震中和震级。依据共振波出现后振幅随时间增加的规律,月潮规则,可以确定发震时间。地震和临震理论以及诊断技术均已经成熟,中国有望在世界上首先实现地震预报。查清地震包体,地震能可以如同油气那样供人类利用。
Based on the burst theory of seismic structure,the mechanism of impending precursor wave has been revealed.The seismic occlusion body(SOB)is an energy storage structure,when its fluid pressure reaches the sum of breaking strength of rock strata and gravity,the localized rupture of SOB which occurs under the impact of the tidal force and the expansion of cracks will result in the rupture flow and rupture wave;the alternating shock loadings and unloading collapses superposed by the tidal wave will form the resonant wave as the earthquake precursors,and the resonant wave will spread to the surrounding rocks in phase and group velocity;the vibration frequency and period of the tidal wave are the characterizations of the intrinsic frequency and period of the SOB.The wave velocity and period can be acquired by the high precision and anti-interference geoelectric instrument PS100HRT before the outbreak of an earthquake,and thus the epicenter and magnitude can be determined.Based on the resonant wave amplitude increasing with time after the emergence of the wave and the lunitidal rule,earthquakes'occurrence time can be determined.The theory of earthquake and impending earthquake and their diagnostic techniques are already mature;China is expected first to achieve the earthquake prediction in the world.By exploring and identifying the seismic occlusion body,we will be able to utilize the seismic energy just like oil and gas someday.
Based on the burst theory of seismic structure,the mechanism of impending precursor wave has been revealed.The seismic occlusion body(SOB)is an energy storage structure,when its fluid pressure reaches the sum of breaking strength of rock strata and gravity,the localized rupture of SOB which occurs under the impact of the tidal force and the expansion of cracks will result in the rupture flow and rupture wave;the alternating shock loadings and unloading collapses superposed by the tidal wave will form the resonant wave as the earthquake precursors,and the resonant wave will spread to the surrounding rocks in phase and group velocity;the vibration frequency and period of the tidal wave are the characterizations of the intrinsic frequency and period of the SOB.The wave velocity and period can be acquired by the high precision and anti-interference geoelectric instrument PS100HRT before the outbreak of an earthquake,and thus the epicenter and magnitude can be determined.Based on the resonant wave amplitude increasing with time after the emergence of the wave and the lunitidal rule,earthquakes'occurrence time can be determined.The theory of earthquake and impending earthquake and their diagnostic techniques are already mature;China is expected first to achieve the earthquake prediction in the world.By exploring and identifying the seismic occlusion body,we will be able to utilize the seismic energy just like oil and gas someday.
引文
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[15]兰景岩,吕悦军,彭艳菊.四川汶川8.0级强震记录的近断层效应的初步分析[M]∥中国地震局地壳应力研究所.汶川8.0级地震地壳动力学研究专辑[M].北京:地震出版社,2009:128-137.
[2]赵璧如,赵健,张洪魁,等.PS100型IP到端可控源高精度大地电测仪系统:CDMA技术首次在地电阻率测量中的应用[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(2):675-682.
[3]陈运泰,许力生,张勇.2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告[R/OL].(2008-08-04)[2008-08-09].
[4]李国玉,吕鸣岗.中国含油气盆地图集[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2002:45.
[5]中国地震局监测预报司.亚洲地震概要[M].北京:地震出版社,2007.
[6]傅征祥.刘桂萍.邵志刚.板块构造和地震活动性[M].北京:地震出版社,2009.
[7]曾雄飞.论地震能量的积聚和触发[J].广东科技,2011(6):27-31.
[8]杜功焕,朱哲民,龚秀芬.声学基础[M].南京:南京大学出版社,2012:60-70.
[9]吴云岗,陶明德.水波动力学基础[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2011:1-42.
[10]钱显毅,钱显忠,钱爱玲.应用物理学[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2012:310-311.
[11]赵玉林,赵璧如,钱卫,等.印尼MW9.0地震的短临地电波(声波:潮汐力谐振共振波,HRT波)波动前兆HRT波法进行短临地震准确预测可能性的探讨[J].国际地震动态,2006(8):6-21.
[12]钱复业,赵璧如,钱卫,等.汶川8.0级地震HRT波地震短临波动前兆及HRT波地震短临预测方法:关于实现强震短临预测可能性的讨论[J].中国科学:D辑,2009,39(1):11-23.
[13]钱复业,赵璧如,张洪魁,等.潮汐力谐振共振波(简称HRT波)短临地震预测方法[M]∥赵德秀,强祖基.地震是可以预报的[M].西安:西北工业大学出版社,2012:20-43.
[14]周庆,何玉林,胥广根,等.汶川地震次生灾害与地表破裂带调查[M].北京:地震出版社,2011:170.
[15]兰景岩,吕悦军,彭艳菊.四川汶川8.0级强震记录的近断层效应的初步分析[M]∥中国地震局地壳应力研究所.汶川8.0级地震地壳动力学研究专辑[M].北京:地震出版社,2009:128-137.
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