基于空间平滑法的武汉城市圈地震危险性概率分析
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摘要
以武汉城市圈为研究对象,利用空间平滑方法建立了区域的两个地震活动性模型,计算了50年超越概率10%的基岩峰值加速度分布图,与地震动参数区划图的对比表明,其结果能合理反映区域的地震危险性水平。在弱震活动区,基于空间平滑法的地震危险性概率计算能给出可靠的地震动参数。
To conduct a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Wuhan Metropolitan region,we build two seismicity models by Spatial Smoothing method,and calculate the contour distribution of the peak ground acceleration of bedrock within 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years in Wuhan.Compared with the Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China,the results we obtain can more reasonably reflect the seismic hazard of the area.In the low seismicity area,the ground motion parameters calculated through probabilistic seismic hazard based on Spatial Smoothing method is reliable.
To conduct a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Wuhan Metropolitan region,we build two seismicity models by Spatial Smoothing method,and calculate the contour distribution of the peak ground acceleration of bedrock within 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years in Wuhan.Compared with the Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China,the results we obtain can more reasonably reflect the seismic hazard of the area.In the low seismicity area,the ground motion parameters calculated through probabilistic seismic hazard based on Spatial Smoothing method is reliable.
引文
胡聿贤.1999.地震安全性评价技术教程[M].北京:地震出版社.
黄玮琼,吴宣.2003.地震活动性参数不确定性对城镇危险性估计的影响[J].地震学报,25(6):615-620.
黄玮琼,吴宣.2005.地震统计区活动性参数与潜在震源区划分的关联性及对危险性估计的影响[J].地震学报,27(4):409-413.
刘锁旺,丁忠孝.1990.湖北地震志[M].北京:地震出版社.
谢广林,饶扬誉,蒋蔺珍,等.1993.武汉地区新构造运动与区域稳定性评价.地壳形变与地震,13(3):59-65.
杨勇,史保平,孙亮.2008.基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型[J].地震学报,30(2):198-208.
张宝一,龚平,王丽芳.2006.基于GIS的概率性地震危险性分析[J].地震研究,29(2):209-213.
Cornell C A.1968.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].BSSA,58(5):1583-1606.
Frankel A.1995.Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern Unit-ed States[J].Seism Res Lett,66(4p):8-21.
Kafka A L,Levin S Z.2000.Does the spatial distribution of smaller earth-quakes delineate areas where larger earthquakes are likely to occur?[J].BSSA,90(3):724-738.
Lapajne J K,Motniker B S,Zupani P.2003.Probabilistic seismic hazardassessment methodology for distributed seismicity[J].BSSA,93(6):2502-2515.
Stirling M W.2000.A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment modelfor New Zeland[C]//.Proceedings of the12th World Conference onEarthquake Engineering,Auckland,New Zealand.
GB17741-2005,工程场地地震安全性评价[S].
黄玮琼,吴宣.2003.地震活动性参数不确定性对城镇危险性估计的影响[J].地震学报,25(6):615-620.
黄玮琼,吴宣.2005.地震统计区活动性参数与潜在震源区划分的关联性及对危险性估计的影响[J].地震学报,27(4):409-413.
刘锁旺,丁忠孝.1990.湖北地震志[M].北京:地震出版社.
谢广林,饶扬誉,蒋蔺珍,等.1993.武汉地区新构造运动与区域稳定性评价.地壳形变与地震,13(3):59-65.
杨勇,史保平,孙亮.2008.基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型[J].地震学报,30(2):198-208.
张宝一,龚平,王丽芳.2006.基于GIS的概率性地震危险性分析[J].地震研究,29(2):209-213.
Cornell C A.1968.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].BSSA,58(5):1583-1606.
Frankel A.1995.Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern Unit-ed States[J].Seism Res Lett,66(4p):8-21.
Kafka A L,Levin S Z.2000.Does the spatial distribution of smaller earth-quakes delineate areas where larger earthquakes are likely to occur?[J].BSSA,90(3):724-738.
Lapajne J K,Motniker B S,Zupani P.2003.Probabilistic seismic hazardassessment methodology for distributed seismicity[J].BSSA,93(6):2502-2515.
Stirling M W.2000.A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment modelfor New Zeland[C]//.Proceedings of the12th World Conference onEarthquake Engineering,Auckland,New Zealand.
GB17741-2005,工程场地地震安全性评价[S].
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