巴颜喀拉块体周缘几次强震对甘肃地区地震形势的影响
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摘要
以青藏高原为目标,采用黏弹性体本构关系建立3D有限元模型,模拟了在印度板块持续向北推进、挤压下,巴颜喀拉块体周缘强震对邻近地区的影响。通过降低强震发生位置处单元弹性模量的方法模拟了2001年昆仑山口西MS8.1、2008年汶川MS8.0、2010年玉树MS7.1地震,计算了发生这3次MS7.0以上强震后50年内每5年的黏弹性调整过程,讨论了3次强震对祁连地震带及甘东南地区地震形势的影响,尝试开展依据区域应力调整特征判定未来强震危险区的探索试验。
In this paper,we used the viscoelastic constitutive relation to build the 3D finite element model,and to simulate the effect in the neighborhood of strong earthquakes around Bayan Har Block,which is in the everlasting northward propulsion of the Indian plate.By reducing the element elastic modulus in the earthquake location to simulate the Kunlun Mountain Pass MS8.1 earthquake in 2001,the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake in 2008 and the Yushu MS7.1 earthquake in 2010,we calculated the process of the adjustment of the viscoelasticity of the coseismic equivalent stress in the next 50 years caused by three strong earthquakes,And we discussed the effect on seismic situation of the Qilian seismic belt and the southeast of Gansu Province from 3 strong earthquakes around Bayan Har Block,trying to do the exploratory experiment of judging risk area based on the characteristics of the adjustment of regional stress.The preliminary conclusion is that the adjacent zone of the southeast of Gansu province and Qinghai province and the adjacent zone of Gansu province and Qinghai province and Sichuan province are the risk areas of strong earthquakes.
In this paper,we used the viscoelastic constitutive relation to build the 3D finite element model,and to simulate the effect in the neighborhood of strong earthquakes around Bayan Har Block,which is in the everlasting northward propulsion of the Indian plate.By reducing the element elastic modulus in the earthquake location to simulate the Kunlun Mountain Pass MS8.1 earthquake in 2001,the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake in 2008 and the Yushu MS7.1 earthquake in 2010,we calculated the process of the adjustment of the viscoelasticity of the coseismic equivalent stress in the next 50 years caused by three strong earthquakes,And we discussed the effect on seismic situation of the Qilian seismic belt and the southeast of Gansu Province from 3 strong earthquakes around Bayan Har Block,trying to do the exploratory experiment of judging risk area based on the characteristics of the adjustment of regional stress.The preliminary conclusion is that the adjacent zone of the southeast of Gansu province and Qinghai province and the adjacent zone of Gansu province and Qinghai province and Sichuan province are the risk areas of strong earthquakes.
引文
[1]邓起东,高翔,陈桂华,等.青藏高原昆仑-汶川地震系列与巴颜喀拉断块的最新活动[J].地学前缘,2010,17(5):163-178.
[2]郑勇,傅容珊,熊熊.中国大陆及周边地区现代岩石圈演化动力学模型[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(2):415-427.
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[4]杨立明.汶川地震发生的动力学过程及中强地震大尺度有序图像演化研究[J].国际地震动态,2009,(4):14-15.
[5]张晓亮,江在森,张希,等.昆仑山口西MS8.1地震同震形变场的模拟分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2007,27(2):16-21.
[6]王连捷,崔军文,王薇,等.青海玉树MS7.1地震发震过程的数值模拟[J].地质力学学报,2010,16(2):137-145.
[7]王连捷,崔军文,周春景,等.汶川5.12地震发震机理的数值模拟[J].地质力学学报,2009,15(2):105-113.
[8]闻学泽,杜方,张培震,等.巴颜喀拉块体北和东边界大地震序列的关联性与2008年汶川地震[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(3):706-716.
[9]廖力,张东宁,杨建思.2008年5月12日汶川MS8.0地震动力学背景的数值模拟实验[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(1):126-136.
[10]杜义,谢富仁,张效亮,等.汶川MS8.0级地震断层滑动机制研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):464-473.
[11]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动块体[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(增刊):12-20.
[12]李永华,吴庆举,安张辉,等.青藏高原东北缘地壳S波速度结构与泊松比及其意义[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(5):1359-1368.
[13]李永华,吴庆举,田小华,等.用接收函数方法研究云南及其邻区地壳上地幔结构[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(1):67-80.
[14]刘宝峰,李松林,张先康,等.玛沁—靖边剖面S波资料研究与探讨[J].地震学报,2003,25(1):82-88.
[15]苏伟,彭艳菊,郑月军,等.青藏高原及其邻区地壳上地幔S波速度结构[J].地球学报,2002,23(3):193-200.
[16]王椿镛,楼海,吕智勇,等.青藏高原东部地壳上地幔S波速度结构—下地壳流的深部环境[J].中国科学,D辑:2008,38(1):22-32.
[17]吴庆举,曾融生.用宽频带远震接收函数研究青藏高原的地壳结构[J].地球物理学报,1998,41(5):669-679.
[18]胥颐,黄润秋,李志伟,等.龙门山构造带及汶川震源区的S波速度结构[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):329-338.
[19]张中杰,滕吉文,李英康,等.藏南地壳速度结构与地壳物质东西向“逃逸”以佩枯错-普莫雍错宽角反射剖面为例[J].中国科学,D辑,2002,32(10):793-798.
[20]杨强,党亚民.利用GPS速度场估算青藏高原地壳韧性层等效黏滞系数分布的研究[J].测绘学报,2010,39(5):497-502.
[21]石耀霖,曹建玲.中国大陆岩石圈等效黏滞系数的计算和讨论[J].地学前缘,2008,15(3):82-95.
[22]曹建玲,石耀霖,张怀,等.青藏高原GPS位移绕喜马拉雅东构造结顺时针旋转成因的数值模拟[J].科学通报,2009,54(2):224-234.
[23]Paul J,Gaur V K,Bilham R,et al.The motion and active deformation of India[J].Geophys ResLett,2001,28(4):647-650.
[24]Banerjee P,Burgmann R.Convergence across the northwest Himalaya from GPS measurement[J].Geophys Res Lett,2002,29(13):30-1～30-4.
[25]Minster J B,Jordan T H.Present-day plate motions[J].J Geophys Res,1978,83(B11):5 331-5 354.
[26]张培震,王琪,马宗晋.中国大陆现今构造运动的GPS速度场与活动地块[J].地学前缘,2002,9(2):430-441.
[27]张东宁,许忠淮.中国大陆岩石层动力学数值模型的边界条件[J].地震学报,1999,21(2):133-139.
[28]Lu Y Z,Yang S X,Chen L W,et al.Mechanism of the spatial distribution and migration of thestrong earthquakes in China inferred from numerical simulation[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2011,40(4):990-1 001.
[29]杨树新,陆远忠,陈连旺,等.用单元降刚法探索中国大陆强震远距离跳迁及主体活动区域转移[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(1):105-116.
[30]陈宇坤,陈杰.2001年昆仑山口西MS8.1地震最大位移讨论[J].中国地震,2004,20(4):80-387.
[31]陈运泰.汶川特大地震的震级和断层长度[J].科技导报,2008,26(10):26-27.
[32]田勤俭,刁桂苓,郝平,等.汶川8.0级地震及余震破裂的地质构造特征[J].地震,2009,29(1):141-148.
[33]张桂芳,屈春燕,单新建,等.2010年青海玉树MS7.1地震地表破裂带和形变特征分析[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(1):121-127.
[2]郑勇,傅容珊,熊熊.中国大陆及周边地区现代岩石圈演化动力学模型[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(2):415-427.
[3]Stein R S.Earthquake Conversations[J].Scientific American,2003,288:72-79.
[4]杨立明.汶川地震发生的动力学过程及中强地震大尺度有序图像演化研究[J].国际地震动态,2009,(4):14-15.
[5]张晓亮,江在森,张希,等.昆仑山口西MS8.1地震同震形变场的模拟分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2007,27(2):16-21.
[6]王连捷,崔军文,王薇,等.青海玉树MS7.1地震发震过程的数值模拟[J].地质力学学报,2010,16(2):137-145.
[7]王连捷,崔军文,周春景,等.汶川5.12地震发震机理的数值模拟[J].地质力学学报,2009,15(2):105-113.
[8]闻学泽,杜方,张培震,等.巴颜喀拉块体北和东边界大地震序列的关联性与2008年汶川地震[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(3):706-716.
[9]廖力,张东宁,杨建思.2008年5月12日汶川MS8.0地震动力学背景的数值模拟实验[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(1):126-136.
[10]杜义,谢富仁,张效亮,等.汶川MS8.0级地震断层滑动机制研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):464-473.
[11]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动块体[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(增刊):12-20.
[12]李永华,吴庆举,安张辉,等.青藏高原东北缘地壳S波速度结构与泊松比及其意义[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(5):1359-1368.
[13]李永华,吴庆举,田小华,等.用接收函数方法研究云南及其邻区地壳上地幔结构[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(1):67-80.
[14]刘宝峰,李松林,张先康,等.玛沁—靖边剖面S波资料研究与探讨[J].地震学报,2003,25(1):82-88.
[15]苏伟,彭艳菊,郑月军,等.青藏高原及其邻区地壳上地幔S波速度结构[J].地球学报,2002,23(3):193-200.
[16]王椿镛,楼海,吕智勇,等.青藏高原东部地壳上地幔S波速度结构—下地壳流的深部环境[J].中国科学,D辑:2008,38(1):22-32.
[17]吴庆举,曾融生.用宽频带远震接收函数研究青藏高原的地壳结构[J].地球物理学报,1998,41(5):669-679.
[18]胥颐,黄润秋,李志伟,等.龙门山构造带及汶川震源区的S波速度结构[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):329-338.
[19]张中杰,滕吉文,李英康,等.藏南地壳速度结构与地壳物质东西向“逃逸”以佩枯错-普莫雍错宽角反射剖面为例[J].中国科学,D辑,2002,32(10):793-798.
[20]杨强,党亚民.利用GPS速度场估算青藏高原地壳韧性层等效黏滞系数分布的研究[J].测绘学报,2010,39(5):497-502.
[21]石耀霖,曹建玲.中国大陆岩石圈等效黏滞系数的计算和讨论[J].地学前缘,2008,15(3):82-95.
[22]曹建玲,石耀霖,张怀,等.青藏高原GPS位移绕喜马拉雅东构造结顺时针旋转成因的数值模拟[J].科学通报,2009,54(2):224-234.
[23]Paul J,Gaur V K,Bilham R,et al.The motion and active deformation of India[J].Geophys ResLett,2001,28(4):647-650.
[24]Banerjee P,Burgmann R.Convergence across the northwest Himalaya from GPS measurement[J].Geophys Res Lett,2002,29(13):30-1～30-4.
[25]Minster J B,Jordan T H.Present-day plate motions[J].J Geophys Res,1978,83(B11):5 331-5 354.
[26]张培震,王琪,马宗晋.中国大陆现今构造运动的GPS速度场与活动地块[J].地学前缘,2002,9(2):430-441.
[27]张东宁,许忠淮.中国大陆岩石层动力学数值模型的边界条件[J].地震学报,1999,21(2):133-139.
[28]Lu Y Z,Yang S X,Chen L W,et al.Mechanism of the spatial distribution and migration of thestrong earthquakes in China inferred from numerical simulation[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2011,40(4):990-1 001.
[29]杨树新,陆远忠,陈连旺,等.用单元降刚法探索中国大陆强震远距离跳迁及主体活动区域转移[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(1):105-116.
[30]陈宇坤,陈杰.2001年昆仑山口西MS8.1地震最大位移讨论[J].中国地震,2004,20(4):80-387.
[31]陈运泰.汶川特大地震的震级和断层长度[J].科技导报,2008,26(10):26-27.
[32]田勤俭,刁桂苓,郝平,等.汶川8.0级地震及余震破裂的地质构造特征[J].地震,2009,29(1):141-148.
[33]张桂芳,屈春燕,单新建,等.2010年青海玉树MS7.1地震地表破裂带和形变特征分析[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(1):121-127.
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