时间破裂法在青藏高原北部地区地震预测应用研究

英文篇名：THE APPLIED RESEARCH ON THE MODEL OF TIME TO FAILURE IN THE NORTHERN REGION OF QINGHAI-TIBET PLATEAU
中文刊名：高原地震
英文刊名：Plateau Earthquake Research
作者：程建武 ; 杨立明 ; 王振亚
英文作者：CHENG Jian-wu ; YANG Li-ming ; WANG Zhen-ya(Lanzhou Institute of Seismology ; CSB Lanzhou 730000 ; China)
中文关键词：时间破裂模型 ; 青藏高原北部地区 ; 预测模拟
英文关键词：Time-to-failure model ; The Northern region of Qinghai-tibet plateau ; Retrospective prediction
出版日期：2002-12-15
机构：中国地震局兰州地震研究所,中国地震局兰州地震研究所,中国地震局兰州地震研究所甘肃兰州　730000 ,甘肃兰州　730000 ,甘肃兰州　730000
年：2002
期：04
出版单位：高原地震

摘要

系统研究了时间破裂模型的物理基础、分析方法、推导相关的预测公式,并分析了其在国内外的应用等。将该方法应用于青藏高原北部地区(32°～40°N,90°～105°E),对该区1970年以来20次Ms5 0级以上地震进行分析判定,结果有55%的地震的预测结果与实际情况有较好的符合,表明该方法对该区是适用的。时间破裂模型的引入为本区的地震预报提供了一种新的具有物理基础的地震预报方法。同时用该方法在甘肃河西地区进行了地震预报实践,证实了该方法具有一定的实用性。
Physical base and analysis method of time to failure model have been studied systematically,the related formula of prediction have been deduced and the application of this model in or out China has been analyzed.Using this model,the authors select 20 earthquakes with magnitude Ms>50 occurred in northern region of Qinghai-tibet plateau since 1970 for retrospective prediction.The results tell us that there are 55 percents of earthquakes having a better agreement with actual earthquakes.This makes clear that the model is suitable for this region.At the same time ,introduction of time-to-failure model offers us a new prediction method,which has physical base for earthquake prediction in this region.

引文

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