粤闽地区地下流体从属函数异常与地震关系的初步研究
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摘要
利用从属函数法提取粤闽地区地下流体的地震前兆异常 ,并对异常做 0 1化处理 ,绘制了异常频次叠加图。结果表明 ,从 1989 0 1～ 2 0 0 3 0 9,9项流体资料共出现 2 9次从属函数异常 ,其中 2 3次异常对应了粤闽两省 5级左右地震或台湾地区 6级以上强震 ,虚报 6次。 9项资料的从属函数异常频次叠加值具有成丛性的特点 ,可大致划分为5组 ,每组异常持续时间的长短与震级具有一定的相关性 ,可由此拟定地震强度的预测标志。
In this paper, we applied subordinate function to obtain the seismic precursor anomalies of subsurface fluid in Guangdong and Fujian. The data used in this paper are over 10 years′ continuous records including water level of Huaan, Shaoguan, Huadu, Meizhou and radon in the water of Huaan, Zhangzhou, Quanzhou, Yongchun. We first calculated 13-point sliding mean of monthly average value, and then calculated the subordinate function. After transforming the subordinate function into 0-1, the anomaly-frequency-superposition were calculated. The diagram obtained was the object of studiy.The diagram shows that the subordinate function of data appeared to be of positive anomalies that were more than 0.5. Up to 29 positive anomalies of them appeared from January 1989 to September (2003.6 ) are aseismic anomaly, and the others correspond with the earthquakes (about M5) occurred in Guangdong and Fujian or the strong earthquakes (M≥6) occurred in Taiwan. After studying the anomaly-frequency-superposition diagram, we found that the value of anomaly-frequency-superposition of subordinate function can be separated into 5 anomaly periods with cluster feature. There was a statistical correlation between the length of the anomaly period and the intensity of earthquake. We may predict the earthquake intensity depend on the length of the anomaly period. The prediction index is whether the length of anomaly periods is up to 10 months or not. The superposition method was easier to eliminate the interference created by accidental factor compared with the single anomaly method.
In this paper, we applied subordinate function to obtain the seismic precursor anomalies of subsurface fluid in Guangdong and Fujian. The data used in this paper are over 10 years′ continuous records including water level of Huaan, Shaoguan, Huadu, Meizhou and radon in the water of Huaan, Zhangzhou, Quanzhou, Yongchun. We first calculated 13-point sliding mean of monthly average value, and then calculated the subordinate function. After transforming the subordinate function into 0-1, the anomaly-frequency-superposition were calculated. The diagram obtained was the object of studiy.The diagram shows that the subordinate function of data appeared to be of positive anomalies that were more than 0.5. Up to 29 positive anomalies of them appeared from January 1989 to September (2003.6 ) are aseismic anomaly, and the others correspond with the earthquakes (about M5) occurred in Guangdong and Fujian or the strong earthquakes (M≥6) occurred in Taiwan. After studying the anomaly-frequency-superposition diagram, we found that the value of anomaly-frequency-superposition of subordinate function can be separated into 5 anomaly periods with cluster feature. There was a statistical correlation between the length of the anomaly period and the intensity of earthquake. We may predict the earthquake intensity depend on the length of the anomaly period. The prediction index is whether the length of anomaly periods is up to 10 months or not. The superposition method was easier to eliminate the interference created by accidental factor compared with the single anomaly method.
引文
叶秀薇.水化学资料分析2002年度下半年广东省地震趋势.2002.
冯绚敏.台湾海峡两岸地震活动的相关性初探.第三届海峡两岸地震科技研讨会.1998.
[1] 王吉易,郑云贞,张素欣,等.用水氡最大变化率法对强震时间作中期预测[J].华北地震科学,1999,17(4):16
[2] 孙少安,项爱民,李 辉.滇西和北京区域重力场演化及其与地震关系的探讨[J].地震,1999,19(1):97105
[3] 张素欣,王吉易,郑云贞.唐山地震前后水氡变化率动态图象的特征分析[J].西北地震学报,1998,20(3):2226
[4] 郑云贞,王吉易,张素欣.大同地震水氡动态图象的前兆异常特征[J].地震,1999,19(1),9096
[5] 刘培洵.地温动态图象及其与强震的关系[A].地震危险性预测研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1998.128137
[6] 魏柏林,冯绚敏,陈定国,等.东南沿海地震活动特征[M].北京:地震出版社,2001
[7] 韩渭宾,任越霞.7级大震和中强震的前兆异常有本质区别吗?[J].地震,2002,22(2):4246
[8] 陆远忠,吴 云,王 炜,等.地震中短期预报的动态图像方法[M].北京:地震出版社,2001
[9] 贺仲雄.模糊数学及其应用[M].天津:天津科学技术出版社,1983
[10]许绍燮.地震预报能力的评分[A].国家地震局监测司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.586590
冯绚敏.台湾海峡两岸地震活动的相关性初探.第三届海峡两岸地震科技研讨会.1998.
[1] 王吉易,郑云贞,张素欣,等.用水氡最大变化率法对强震时间作中期预测[J].华北地震科学,1999,17(4):16
[2] 孙少安,项爱民,李 辉.滇西和北京区域重力场演化及其与地震关系的探讨[J].地震,1999,19(1):97105
[3] 张素欣,王吉易,郑云贞.唐山地震前后水氡变化率动态图象的特征分析[J].西北地震学报,1998,20(3):2226
[4] 郑云贞,王吉易,张素欣.大同地震水氡动态图象的前兆异常特征[J].地震,1999,19(1),9096
[5] 刘培洵.地温动态图象及其与强震的关系[A].地震危险性预测研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1998.128137
[6] 魏柏林,冯绚敏,陈定国,等.东南沿海地震活动特征[M].北京:地震出版社,2001
[7] 韩渭宾,任越霞.7级大震和中强震的前兆异常有本质区别吗?[J].地震,2002,22(2):4246
[8] 陆远忠,吴 云,王 炜,等.地震中短期预报的动态图像方法[M].北京:地震出版社,2001
[9] 贺仲雄.模糊数学及其应用[M].天津:天津科学技术出版社,1983
[10]许绍燮.地震预报能力的评分[A].国家地震局监测司.地震预报方法实用化研究文集[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.586590
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