卫星红外异常预测短临地震的系统研究Ⅱ ——异常基本特征与预测基本思路
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摘要
肯定了用卫星红外异常预测作短临地震新方法的可行性基础上,提出了地震主震前卫星红外异常与地面增温异常对应的规律,并发现有时震前出现线状云和“热通道”。总结了震兆红外异常的定性和半定量判据;红外异常预测地震的基本思路,并用它进行过多次较成功的预测。同时评述了10多年来该方法取得的试用效果。指出了尚存的问题和努力的方向。认为:该方法有广阔的开发应用前景,可望成为短临地震预报的新武器。
Based on the confirmation of feasibility of the new method on the prediction of the short-time coming earthquakes using satellite infrared abnormal. The law that the satellite infrared abnormal correspond with the increasing temperature abnormal before Master earthquakes is put forward. The line-shape cloud with "hot passage" will appear before the earthquakes. The fixed nature and half fixed quantity criteria for seismic symptom are summed up; The basic thoughts of the earthquake prediction using the new method is established. Several quite successful predictions are conducted. At the same time its probationary effect that has been obtained in the late ten yeats was commented. Some still existing problems and the direction for farther study were also pointed out. It is believed that the new method would have wide prospects for exploitation, and it would become a new weapon for predicting the short-term coming earthquakes.
Based on the confirmation of feasibility of the new method on the prediction of the short-time coming earthquakes using satellite infrared abnormal. The law that the satellite infrared abnormal correspond with the increasing temperature abnormal before Master earthquakes is put forward. The line-shape cloud with "hot passage" will appear before the earthquakes. The fixed nature and half fixed quantity criteria for seismic symptom are summed up; The basic thoughts of the earthquake prediction using the new method is established. Several quite successful predictions are conducted. At the same time its probationary effect that has been obtained in the late ten yeats was commented. Some still existing problems and the direction for farther study were also pointed out. It is believed that the new method would have wide prospects for exploitation, and it would become a new weapon for predicting the short-term coming earthquakes.
引文
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2 徐秀登,等.卫星热红外图象与震兆异常.环境遥感,1991;6(4) :261-266
3 徐秀登,等.非增温背景下的热红外异常兼机制讨论.科学通报,1991;36(11) :841-844
4 徐秀登,等.中国近期地震活动特征及未来预测.浙江师大学报,2000;23(1) :64-67
5 徐秀登,等.张北地震与大气增温异常.西北地震学报,2000;22(1) :44-47
6 徐秀登,等.嵊州、新昌地震与低空大气增温异常.地震学刊,2000;20(1) :23-30
7 徐秀登,等.太阳系主要天体的特殊位置与中国M_s≥6级地震关系的初探,云南天文台刊,2000;(1) :55-66
8 徐秀登,等.台湾南投7． 6级地震的热红外异常.地震学报,2000;22(3) :666-669
9 徐秀登,等.红外增温异常与我国M_s≥7． 5级地震.中国八级大震研究论文集,北京:地震出版社,2001:98-106
10 徐秀登,等.南黄海6． 1级地震前热红外异常.地震学刊,2002;22(4) :4-6
11 徐秀登.中国西部近期地震时空分布与现今地壳运动.浙江师范大学学报,2003;26(1) :72-76
12 强祖基,等.卫星热红外图像亮温异常--短临震兆.中国科学D辑,1998;28(06) :564-573
13 强祖基,等.瞬时地壳运动与地震短临预报.地学前缘,1995;(02) :213-225
14 Gellet R J, et al. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science, 1997; 275: 1616-1617
2 徐秀登,等.卫星热红外图象与震兆异常.环境遥感,1991;6(4) :261-266
3 徐秀登,等.非增温背景下的热红外异常兼机制讨论.科学通报,1991;36(11) :841-844
4 徐秀登,等.中国近期地震活动特征及未来预测.浙江师大学报,2000;23(1) :64-67
5 徐秀登,等.张北地震与大气增温异常.西北地震学报,2000;22(1) :44-47
6 徐秀登,等.嵊州、新昌地震与低空大气增温异常.地震学刊,2000;20(1) :23-30
7 徐秀登,等.太阳系主要天体的特殊位置与中国M_s≥6级地震关系的初探,云南天文台刊,2000;(1) :55-66
8 徐秀登,等.台湾南投7． 6级地震的热红外异常.地震学报,2000;22(3) :666-669
9 徐秀登,等.红外增温异常与我国M_s≥7． 5级地震.中国八级大震研究论文集,北京:地震出版社,2001:98-106
10 徐秀登,等.南黄海6． 1级地震前热红外异常.地震学刊,2002;22(4) :4-6
11 徐秀登.中国西部近期地震时空分布与现今地壳运动.浙江师范大学学报,2003;26(1) :72-76
12 强祖基,等.卫星热红外图像亮温异常--短临震兆.中国科学D辑,1998;28(06) :564-573
13 强祖基,等.瞬时地壳运动与地震短临预报.地学前缘,1995;(02) :213-225
14 Gellet R J, et al. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science, 1997; 275: 1616-1617
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