芦山地震:一个成功的中期预测案例
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摘要
2013年4月20日MS7.0级芦山地震是2008年汶川地震以后龙门山断裂带的又一个灾难性的地质事件。文中回顾了对芦山地震的成功中期预测并给出了预测的依据。2012年11月25日上午,中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会讨论中国西南地区中期地震预测问题。专业委员会主任耿庆国回顾了2012年4月作出的中期预测,认为2012年5月至2013年5月期间,在我国西南地区可能存在MS7～8级地震。参加会议的委员们同意这一时间预测和震级预测,但是在震中位置预测方面存在不同意见。文章第一作者在会上作了一个报告,并展示了确切的震中预测位置图,即位于四川省雅安与康定连线的中间位置。这一预测的依据主要有两个方面:一方面,雅安西侧与汶川两地,具有两个特征相同的独立的卫星重力局部高异常;二是汶川(5.12)大震只是释放了龙门山断裂带北东段的能量和应力,这导致能量和应力在龙门山断裂带南西段,特别是南西端与重力异常突变叠加区(即中上地壳密度突变区)的加速积累和集中。芦山地震震中位于雅安芦山,与预测震中位置仅相差80km,发震时间在2013年5月前。芦山地震中期预测的成功给予我们很多启示。作为一种地质过程,地震应该有其自身的规律可循;成功的地震预测需要多方面观测信息的综合分析,正是基于此,目前迫切需要国家的或者国际的具有综合分析经验的专家组和有效的前兆信息平台;卫星重力异常数据的处理和更新将有助于缩小强震预测的包围圈。
Lushan Earthquake(MS 7.0,April 20,2013) is another disastrous geological event along the Longmenshan earthquake fracture zone after 2008.This article reviews a successful medium-term prediction for the large Earthquake.It also gives the reason for the prediction of the epicenter.In the morning of November 25,2012,the Committee for Predicting Natural Disasters of Chinese Geophysical Society discussed the Medium-Term earthquake prediction for the southwest China.Qingguo Geng,the director of the committee reviewed his prediction presented in April,2012,that there would be a possible earthquake of MS 7.0 to MS 8.0 in the southwest China during the period of May,2012 through May,2013.Members attended the meeting agreed with the prediction time,but had different opinion in the location of the possible large earthquake in the southwest China.The first author made a presentation at the meeting.Zuoxun Zeng gave a definite location on his prediction map.It is located at the middle of the line linking Ya'an and Kangding,Sichuan Province.This prediction is made mainly according to two aspects.One is that two satellite local intense gravity anomalies with the same characteristics are appearing at the Wenchuan area and the west to Ya'an City,respectively.The other is that the Wenchuan earthquake only released the energy of the northeast part of the longmenshan fracture zone,this leads to the stress and energy concentration at the southwestern part of the fracture zone,especially at the southwestern end of the Longmenshan fracture zone with the abrupt gravity change,or abrupt change of density of the middle crust.The epicenter of Ya'an Earthquake(MS 7.0) is located at Lushan of Ya'an City,80 km from the predicated location.The origin time of the quake is before May of 2013.The successful medium-term prediction of the Lushan earthquake has given us a good deal of enlightenment: as a geological process,earthquake should have its own regularity.A successful earthquake prediction needs comprehensive analysis by using information from different observations.Just because of this,the main need now is a national or international expert group with comprehensive analysis experience and an efficient information platform for seismic precursor.The data processing and update for the satellite gravity will be helpful to narrowing the area of the possible large earthquakes.
Lushan Earthquake(MS 7.0,April 20,2013) is another disastrous geological event along the Longmenshan earthquake fracture zone after 2008.This article reviews a successful medium-term prediction for the large Earthquake.It also gives the reason for the prediction of the epicenter.In the morning of November 25,2012,the Committee for Predicting Natural Disasters of Chinese Geophysical Society discussed the Medium-Term earthquake prediction for the southwest China.Qingguo Geng,the director of the committee reviewed his prediction presented in April,2012,that there would be a possible earthquake of MS 7.0 to MS 8.0 in the southwest China during the period of May,2012 through May,2013.Members attended the meeting agreed with the prediction time,but had different opinion in the location of the possible large earthquake in the southwest China.The first author made a presentation at the meeting.Zuoxun Zeng gave a definite location on his prediction map.It is located at the middle of the line linking Ya'an and Kangding,Sichuan Province.This prediction is made mainly according to two aspects.One is that two satellite local intense gravity anomalies with the same characteristics are appearing at the Wenchuan area and the west to Ya'an City,respectively.The other is that the Wenchuan earthquake only released the energy of the northeast part of the longmenshan fracture zone,this leads to the stress and energy concentration at the southwestern part of the fracture zone,especially at the southwestern end of the Longmenshan fracture zone with the abrupt gravity change,or abrupt change of density of the middle crust.The epicenter of Ya'an Earthquake(MS 7.0) is located at Lushan of Ya'an City,80 km from the predicated location.The origin time of the quake is before May of 2013.The successful medium-term prediction of the Lushan earthquake has given us a good deal of enlightenment: as a geological process,earthquake should have its own regularity.A successful earthquake prediction needs comprehensive analysis by using information from different observations.Just because of this,the main need now is a national or international expert group with comprehensive analysis experience and an efficient information platform for seismic precursor.The data processing and update for the satellite gravity will be helpful to narrowing the area of the possible large earthquakes.
引文
[1]滕吉文,王谦身,王光杰,等.喜马拉雅“东构造结”地区的特异重力场与深部地壳结构[J].地球物理学报,2006,49(4):1045-1052.
[2]费琪.壳幔物质流变的底辟作用孕育大地震:卫星重力资料的证据[J].地学前缘,2009,16(3):282-293.
[3]费琪.汶川大地震的深部构造特征[J].工程地球物理学报,2008,5(4):387-395.
[4]滕吉文,白登海,杨辉,等.2008汶川MS8.0地震发生的深层过程和动力学响应[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(5):1385-1402.
[5]张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(4):1066-1073.
[6]陈祖安,林邦慧,白武明,等.2008年汶川8.0级地震孕震机理研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):408-417.
[7]王勤彩,陈章立,郑斯华.汶川大地震余震序列震源机制的空间分段特征[J].科学通报,2009,54(16):2348-2354.
[8]陈九辉,刘启元,李顺成,等.汶川MS8.0地震余震序列重新定位及其地震构造研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):390-397.
[9]杨巍然,曾佐勋,李德威,等.板内地震过程的三层次构造模式[J].地学前缘,2009,16(1):206-217.
[10]韦伟,孙若昧,石耀霖.青藏高原东南缘地震层析成像及汶川地震成因探讨[J].中国科学:D辑,2010,40(7):831-839.
[11]李德威.东昆仑、玉树、汶川地震的发生规律和形成机理:兼论大陆地震成因与预测[J].地学前缘,2010,17(5):179-192.
[12]张乐天,金胜,魏文博,等.青藏高原东缘及四川盆地的壳幔导电性结构研究[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(12):4126-4137.
①曾佐勋.2012-11-25在北京工业大学召开的“2012年全国天灾预测总结学术会议”大会专题报告.北京:北京工业大学,2012.
②曾佐勋.2012年11月26日给张建国的私人电子邮件。武汉:中国地质大学(武汉),2012.
③张建国.2012年11月28日天灾年度预测报告简表(年度追踪预测意见)或2012年11月29日给曾佐勋的私人电子邮件.
[2]费琪.壳幔物质流变的底辟作用孕育大地震:卫星重力资料的证据[J].地学前缘,2009,16(3):282-293.
[3]费琪.汶川大地震的深部构造特征[J].工程地球物理学报,2008,5(4):387-395.
[4]滕吉文,白登海,杨辉,等.2008汶川MS8.0地震发生的深层过程和动力学响应[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(5):1385-1402.
[5]张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(4):1066-1073.
[6]陈祖安,林邦慧,白武明,等.2008年汶川8.0级地震孕震机理研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):408-417.
[7]王勤彩,陈章立,郑斯华.汶川大地震余震序列震源机制的空间分段特征[J].科学通报,2009,54(16):2348-2354.
[8]陈九辉,刘启元,李顺成,等.汶川MS8.0地震余震序列重新定位及其地震构造研究[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):390-397.
[9]杨巍然,曾佐勋,李德威,等.板内地震过程的三层次构造模式[J].地学前缘,2009,16(1):206-217.
[10]韦伟,孙若昧,石耀霖.青藏高原东南缘地震层析成像及汶川地震成因探讨[J].中国科学:D辑,2010,40(7):831-839.
[11]李德威.东昆仑、玉树、汶川地震的发生规律和形成机理:兼论大陆地震成因与预测[J].地学前缘,2010,17(5):179-192.
[12]张乐天,金胜,魏文博,等.青藏高原东缘及四川盆地的壳幔导电性结构研究[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(12):4126-4137.
①曾佐勋.2012-11-25在北京工业大学召开的“2012年全国天灾预测总结学术会议”大会专题报告.北京:北京工业大学,2012.
②曾佐勋.2012年11月26日给张建国的私人电子邮件。武汉:中国地质大学(武汉),2012.
③张建国.2012年11月28日天灾年度预测报告简表(年度追踪预测意见)或2012年11月29日给曾佐勋的私人电子邮件.
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