鲁甸、景谷、康定地震预测的原理、方法及其意义
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摘要
继中长期预测了芦山地震之后,笔者中期预测了鲁甸、景谷和康定地震。例如,鲁甸地震的预测震级为7级左右或6.5级以上(实为里氏6.5级),地点为北纬26°~29°、东经101.5°~105°(实际震中北纬27.1°,东经103.3°),发震时间可能是2014年5月至2015年5月(实际为2014年8月3日)。本文总结了鲁甸、景谷、康定地震和陆内地震热流体物理综合预测的原理、方法和步骤;阐明了在开放复杂地球系统多级物质循环热构造背景下,大陆地壳非均匀流动("热河")过程中热能的源、汇、释过程与热灾害链及其地震之间的关系;提出了根据热灾害链时空结构和活动"热河"地震空区相结合进行长期和中期地震预测,与根据热流体直接和间接前兆异常开展立体监测和短临地震预测有机结合的新思路。根据当前热灾害链的演变规律和异动"热河"地震空区分布,进一步分析了西南和华北地震的发展形势,强调华北(特别是东北)的震情极为严峻,短临地震监测和预测已刻不容缓。
Author has successfully predicted the Ludian,Jinggu and Kangding earthquakes after his long-medium-term forecasting of the Lushan quake. The predicted elements for the Ludian earthquake include about Ms 7.0 or above 6.5(actually Ms 6.5),26°–29°N and 101.5°–105 °E(the actual epicenter 27.1° N and 103.3°E),and earthquake time from May 2014 to May 2015(Actual time August 3,2014). This paper summarizes the principles,methods and procedures of the Ludian,Jinggu and Kangding earthquakes and intracontinental earthquakes by physical and comprehensive prediction based on the thermal fluid; and illustrates the relationship between the source,accumulation,release process of thermal energy within uneven crustal flow("thermal river"),thermal disaster chain,and earthquakes under the thermal tectonic background of multi-scale material recycling in open complex Earth system; also proposes a new workflow that combines long-medium-term earthquake prediction based on spatial-temporal structure of thermal disaster chain and seismic gap along the active "thermal river" and short-term to impending earthquake prediction based on the direct and indirect precursory anomalies of thermal fluid. According to evolution of the ongoing disaster chains and seismic gaps,the author further analyzes the earthquake trend in the Southwest China and North China,and emphasizes the great possibilities of strong earthquakes in the North China(especially the Northeast China). The short-term and impending earthquake monitoring and prediction in these areas demand relevant departments take immediate action.
引文
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