张北地震前Morishita播散指数空间演化特征
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摘要
用Morishita播散指数研究了 1998年 1月 10日河北省张北M6 2地震的发展过程。发现从震前 3年半开始 ,Morishita播散指数异常空间演化经历了两次过程。即 1994年 8月至 1996年 1月 ,在震中周围 (2°× 2°内 )从无异常 ,到震中一侧出现异常 ,发展到异常向震中集中的过程。 1996年 2月至 1998年 1月 9日 ,又经历了无异常 ,到震中一侧出现异常 ,异常向震中发展 ,最后形成包围震中的态势 ,直到发震。Morishita播散指数的空间异常演化特征 ,有可能揭示张北地震的孕震阶段性发展过程 ,并为历史上无强震、且地表构造发育不明显的地区的破坏性地震的预测 ,提供了新思路
The evolution of the M 6.2 Zhangbei earthquake on Jan.10,1998 in Hebei province is studied using the Morishita spared index.It is discovered that starting from 3 and half years before the earthquake,the spatial evolution of the Morishita spread index had following the two processes.1.From August,1994 to January,1996,it was from no the anomalies around the epicenter(2°×2°)to appearing of the anomalies in the side of the epicenter and to concentrating of the anomalies toward to the epicenter.2.From Feb.1996 to Jan.9,1998,there were no the anomalies in the initial stage and then the anomalies appeared in the side of the epicenter and concentrated in and findlly encircled the epicenter until the earthquake occurrence.The evolution features of the spatial figures of the Morishita spread index might reveal the preparation evolution process of the Zhangbei earthquake and provides a new thinking for prediction destructive earthquakes in the regions without obvious immature surface structure.
The evolution of the M 6.2 Zhangbei earthquake on Jan.10,1998 in Hebei province is studied using the Morishita spared index.It is discovered that starting from 3 and half years before the earthquake,the spatial evolution of the Morishita spread index had following the two processes.1.From August,1994 to January,1996,it was from no the anomalies around the epicenter(2°×2°)to appearing of the anomalies in the side of the epicenter and to concentrating of the anomalies toward to the epicenter.2.From Feb.1996 to Jan.9,1998,there were no the anomalies in the initial stage and then the anomalies appeared in the side of the epicenter and concentrated in and findlly encircled the epicenter until the earthquake occurrence.The evolution features of the spatial figures of the Morishita spread index might reveal the preparation evolution process of the Zhangbei earthquake and provides a new thinking for prediction destructive earthquakes in the regions without obvious immature surface structure.
引文
孟保成,孙瑞玲,包淑娴.Morishita播散指数在地震预报中的应用.河南省科委资助项目研究报告
[1]T .Ouchi,T .Uekawa.地震空间分布的统计分析—大震前后空间分布的变化[J].世界地震译丛,1987,(2):56～65.
[2]杜兴信.Morishita播散指数在地震空间分布丛集分析中的应用[J].地震,1994,14(2):28～33.
[3]孟保成,睢建设.地震预报新方法介绍—森下播散指数[J].地方地震工作,1995,(4):22～23.
[1]T .Ouchi,T .Uekawa.地震空间分布的统计分析—大震前后空间分布的变化[J].世界地震译丛,1987,(2):56～65.
[2]杜兴信.Morishita播散指数在地震空间分布丛集分析中的应用[J].地震,1994,14(2):28～33.
[3]孟保成,睢建设.地震预报新方法介绍—森下播散指数[J].地方地震工作,1995,(4):22～23.
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