汶川地震灾后重建地区的人口容量分析(英文)
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摘要
Assessment of population carrying capacity is a key task in the reconstruction planning of areas struck by disasters, in which the precision of estimation is required. This study developed a decision-making model for estimating the population capacity of the involved townships and cities in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake based on the assessment of the suitability for reconstruction of the areas. Through analysis, arable land resources were argued to be the critical constraint of population capacity in these areas. Then, the spatial differentiations of the post-quake development conditions across different regions were analyzed with respect to their natural environments, socio-economic development and quake damages. The expected levels of urbanization, family incomes and income structures, output levels of land, and the reliance of agricultural population on arable land were estimated by different regions. With these parameters, the population capacities of the involved townships and cities in three scenarios were estimated. The total population capacity of the entire areas is abundant compared with the actual post-quake population; however, the status of over-population substantially varies across space. It was suggested to put the emphasis of post-quake resettlement policy on those counties where earthquake had been the main causes of over-population. In the Full Recovery Scenario, three mountain counties were identified including Wenchuan, Beichuan and Maoxian, with a total over-population of about 100,000 people.
Assessment of population carrying capacity is a key task in the reconstruction planning of areas struck by disasters, in which the precision of estimation is required. This study developed a decision-making model for estimating the population capacity of the involved townships and cities in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake based on the assessment of the suitability for reconstruction of the areas. Through analysis, arable land resources were argued to be the critical constraint of population capacity in these areas. Then, the spatial differentiations of the post-quake development conditions across different regions were analyzed with respect to their natural environments, socio-economic development and quake damages. The expected levels of urbanization, family incomes and income structures, output levels of land, and the reliance of agricultural population on arable land were estimated by different regions. With these parameters, the population capacities of the involved townships and cities in three scenarios were estimated. The total population capacity of the entire areas is abundant compared with the actual post-quake population; however, the status of over-population substantially varies across space. It was suggested to put the emphasis of post-quake resettlement policy on those counties where earthquake had been the main causes of over-population. In the Full Recovery Scenario, three mountain counties were identified including Wenchuan, Beichuan and Maoxian, with a total over-population of about 100,000 people.
Assessment of population carrying capacity is a key task in the reconstruction planning of areas struck by disasters, in which the precision of estimation is required. This study developed a decision-making model for estimating the population capacity of the involved townships and cities in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake based on the assessment of the suitability for reconstruction of the areas. Through analysis, arable land resources were argued to be the critical constraint of population capacity in these areas. Then, the spatial differentiations of the post-quake development conditions across different regions were analyzed with respect to their natural environments, socio-economic development and quake damages. The expected levels of urbanization, family incomes and income structures, output levels of land, and the reliance of agricultural population on arable land were estimated by different regions. With these parameters, the population capacities of the involved townships and cities in three scenarios were estimated. The total population capacity of the entire areas is abundant compared with the actual post-quake population; however, the status of over-population substantially varies across space. It was suggested to put the emphasis of post-quake resettlement policy on those counties where earthquake had been the main causes of over-population. In the Full Recovery Scenario, three mountain counties were identified including Wenchuan, Beichuan and Maoxian, with a total over-population of about 100,000 people.
引文
Cai L,Mu G Z,2008.Study on the construction and quantization of population carrying capacity index system.Population Journal,(5):18–24.(in Chinese)
Chen S J,Shi G Q,2003.Analysis of the poverty of involuntary emigrants in China.Gansu Social Sciences,(5):114–117.(in Chinese)
Chen W,Meng X J,2000.China’s population carrying capacity:A literature review.Market&Demographic Analysis,(1):21–31.(in Chinese)
Cole S,Razak V,2008.How far,and how fast?Population,culture,and carrying capacity in Aru-ba.In:Razak V,Cole S(eds.).The Futures of Tourism:Perspectives and Policy.Futures.
Dolgonosov B M,Naidenov V I,2006.An informational framework for human population dynamics.Ecological Modeling,298:375–386.
Fan J(ed.),2009.Report of the Carrying Capacity of Resources and Environments in Wenchuan Quake-struck Areas.Beijing:Science Press.(in Chinese)
Graymore M L M,Sipe N G,Rickson R E,2010.Sustaining human carrying capacity:A tool for regional sus-tainability assessment.Ecological Economics,69:459–468.
Haraldsson H V,ólafsdóttir R,2006.A novel modelling approach for evaluating the preindustrial natural carrying capacity of human population in Iceland.Science of the Total Environment,372(1):109–119.
Harris J M,Kennedy S,1999.Carrying capacity in agriculture:Global and regional issues.Ecological Economics,29(3):443–461.
Hasbagen,Li B S,Bao Y et al.,2008.Theoretical model and empirical researches of regional land carrying ca-pacity.Scientia Geographica Sinica,28(2):189–194.(in Chinese)
He Y R,Zhou H Y,Zhang B H et al.,2004.Climate-soil productivity and potential population supporting capacity of cropland in Sichuan province.Scientia Geographica Sinica,24(1):20–22.(in Chinese)
Higgins G M,Kassam A H,Shah M,1984.Land,food and population in the developing world.Nature and Re-sources,208(3):2–10.
Hui C,2006.Carrying capacity,population equilibrium,and environment's maximal load.Ecological Modelling,192(1/2):317–320.
Lane M,2010.The carrying capacity imperative:Assessing regional carrying capacity methodologies for sus-tainable land-use planning.Land Use Policy,27(4):1038–1045.
Liu Q P,Lin Z S,Feng N H,2005.The dynamic simulation and application of land population carrying capacity.Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2005,28(2):114–118.(in Chinese)
LPAPC Research Group,1991.Report of Land Production Ability and Population Capacity in China.Beijing:China Renmin University Press.
Mao H Y,Yu D L,2005.Regional carrying capacity in Bohai Rim.Acta Geographica Sinica,56(3):363–371.(in Chinese)
Mwalyosi R B B,1991.Population growth,carrying capacity and sustainable development in south-west Ma-sailand.Journal of Environmental Management,33(2):175–187.
Seidl I,Tisdell C A,1999.Carrying capacity reconsidered:From Malthus’population theory to cultural carrying capacity.Ecological Economics,31(3):395–408.
Wang L,Shao M A,Wang Q J et al.,2006.Historical changes in the environment of the Chinese Loess Plateau.Environmental Science&Policy,9(7/8):675–684.
Wang R Z,2003.Factors for the instability of migrants in Tangshan Earthquake.Hebei Water Resources and Hy-dropower Engineering,(3):25–27.(in Chinese)
Wang S K,2008.Study on the supporting development of Three Gorges Reservoir resettlement at the later stage.Journal of Chongqing Three Gorges University,24(1):1–6.(in Chinese)
Wu H I,Chakraborty A,Li B L et al.,2009.Formulating variable carrying capacity by exploring a resource dy-namics-based feedback mechanism underlying the population growth models.Ecological Complexity,6(4):403–412.
Zhang Z Q,Xu Z M,Cheng G D,2000.The concept of ecological footprints and computer models.Ecological Economy,10:8–10.(in Chinese)
Chen S J,Shi G Q,2003.Analysis of the poverty of involuntary emigrants in China.Gansu Social Sciences,(5):114–117.(in Chinese)
Chen W,Meng X J,2000.China’s population carrying capacity:A literature review.Market&Demographic Analysis,(1):21–31.(in Chinese)
Cole S,Razak V,2008.How far,and how fast?Population,culture,and carrying capacity in Aru-ba.In:Razak V,Cole S(eds.).The Futures of Tourism:Perspectives and Policy.Futures.
Dolgonosov B M,Naidenov V I,2006.An informational framework for human population dynamics.Ecological Modeling,298:375–386.
Fan J(ed.),2009.Report of the Carrying Capacity of Resources and Environments in Wenchuan Quake-struck Areas.Beijing:Science Press.(in Chinese)
Graymore M L M,Sipe N G,Rickson R E,2010.Sustaining human carrying capacity:A tool for regional sus-tainability assessment.Ecological Economics,69:459–468.
Haraldsson H V,ólafsdóttir R,2006.A novel modelling approach for evaluating the preindustrial natural carrying capacity of human population in Iceland.Science of the Total Environment,372(1):109–119.
Harris J M,Kennedy S,1999.Carrying capacity in agriculture:Global and regional issues.Ecological Economics,29(3):443–461.
Hasbagen,Li B S,Bao Y et al.,2008.Theoretical model and empirical researches of regional land carrying ca-pacity.Scientia Geographica Sinica,28(2):189–194.(in Chinese)
He Y R,Zhou H Y,Zhang B H et al.,2004.Climate-soil productivity and potential population supporting capacity of cropland in Sichuan province.Scientia Geographica Sinica,24(1):20–22.(in Chinese)
Higgins G M,Kassam A H,Shah M,1984.Land,food and population in the developing world.Nature and Re-sources,208(3):2–10.
Hui C,2006.Carrying capacity,population equilibrium,and environment's maximal load.Ecological Modelling,192(1/2):317–320.
Lane M,2010.The carrying capacity imperative:Assessing regional carrying capacity methodologies for sus-tainable land-use planning.Land Use Policy,27(4):1038–1045.
Liu Q P,Lin Z S,Feng N H,2005.The dynamic simulation and application of land population carrying capacity.Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2005,28(2):114–118.(in Chinese)
LPAPC Research Group,1991.Report of Land Production Ability and Population Capacity in China.Beijing:China Renmin University Press.
Mao H Y,Yu D L,2005.Regional carrying capacity in Bohai Rim.Acta Geographica Sinica,56(3):363–371.(in Chinese)
Mwalyosi R B B,1991.Population growth,carrying capacity and sustainable development in south-west Ma-sailand.Journal of Environmental Management,33(2):175–187.
Seidl I,Tisdell C A,1999.Carrying capacity reconsidered:From Malthus’population theory to cultural carrying capacity.Ecological Economics,31(3):395–408.
Wang L,Shao M A,Wang Q J et al.,2006.Historical changes in the environment of the Chinese Loess Plateau.Environmental Science&Policy,9(7/8):675–684.
Wang R Z,2003.Factors for the instability of migrants in Tangshan Earthquake.Hebei Water Resources and Hy-dropower Engineering,(3):25–27.(in Chinese)
Wang S K,2008.Study on the supporting development of Three Gorges Reservoir resettlement at the later stage.Journal of Chongqing Three Gorges University,24(1):1–6.(in Chinese)
Wu H I,Chakraborty A,Li B L et al.,2009.Formulating variable carrying capacity by exploring a resource dy-namics-based feedback mechanism underlying the population growth models.Ecological Complexity,6(4):403–412.
Zhang Z Q,Xu Z M,Cheng G D,2000.The concept of ecological footprints and computer models.Ecological Economy,10:8–10.(in Chinese)
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