2013年4月20日芦山大地震中期预测的初步回顾和评述
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摘要
在2013年4月20日四川雅安芦山地震发生前,有多个中期预测,文中介绍和评述其中几个预测意见。它们预测的时间和震级与芦山地震都符合得相当好。它们预测地区在图1中标出,由邓志辉等提出的预测地区的北缘距芦山地震震中大约40km。这样一来,从中期预测角度来看,芦山地震可作为被成功预测的一个范例。许多科学工作者认为:由于对地震的宏观和微观形成过程了解很少,从而对许多经验性成功地震预测震例应采取否定的态度。芦山地震中期预测的成功震例表明上述悲观论调的依据不足。这说明,细心和智慧地使用已有的数据组合,可以得出成功的预测意见,正如立足于"大数据"兴起的新思维所主张的那样。
Before the appearance of Lushan earthquake on April 20,2013,there were many relatively well medium-term predictions,among which three essentially successful predictions including three elements(time,magnitude and region of the mentioned earthquake)are demonstrated in this article.Their predicted time and magnitude of the event agree well to that of the Lushan earthquake according to the requirements of mediumterm earthquake prediction,and their predicted regions are indicated in Fig.1,in which they are located not far from the epicenter of Lushan earthquake,the shortest distance is only about 40km between the epicenter and north boundary of the predicted region suggested by Deng Zhihui et al.(2012).Therefore,from the view point of medium-term prediction,the Lushan earthquake can be considered as a well successful forecasting example.As usually known,a lot of scientists agree to the point view that we do not know much about the underlying micro and macro-processes related to earthquake,which leads to an attitude of negating most of empirical but successful earthquake predictions.Evidences suggested by successful medium-term predictions related to the Lushan earthquake present new challenges to the above-mentioned pessimistic view,and demonstrate that a careful and intellectual collection of data sets could lead to a successful prediction as emphasized by the new upsurge of a revolution of thinking based on so-called"Big Data".
Before the appearance of Lushan earthquake on April 20,2013,there were many relatively well medium-term predictions,among which three essentially successful predictions including three elements(time,magnitude and region of the mentioned earthquake)are demonstrated in this article.Their predicted time and magnitude of the event agree well to that of the Lushan earthquake according to the requirements of mediumterm earthquake prediction,and their predicted regions are indicated in Fig.1,in which they are located not far from the epicenter of Lushan earthquake,the shortest distance is only about 40km between the epicenter and north boundary of the predicted region suggested by Deng Zhihui et al.(2012).Therefore,from the view point of medium-term prediction,the Lushan earthquake can be considered as a well successful forecasting example.As usually known,a lot of scientists agree to the point view that we do not know much about the underlying micro and macro-processes related to earthquake,which leads to an attitude of negating most of empirical but successful earthquake predictions.Evidences suggested by successful medium-term predictions related to the Lushan earthquake present new challenges to the above-mentioned pessimistic view,and demonstrate that a careful and intellectual collection of data sets could lead to a successful prediction as emphasized by the new upsurge of a revolution of thinking based on so-called"Big Data".
引文
[1]李鑫.静中动与三性法指标预测大地震的方法系统研究及成因探讨[D].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所,2012:41-42.
[2]郭增建,秦保燕,郭安宁.地气耦合与天灾预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[3]郭增建,秦保燕,吴谨冰.由三性法和静中动判据预测大震[J].地学前缘,2003,10(1):210-211.
[4]柴会群.雅安地震:这一次本来预测中了[N].南方周末,2013-05-16(A6).
[5]陈运泰,许力生,张勇,等.2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告[R/OL].http:∥www.cea-igp.ac.cn/汶川地震专题/地震情况/初步研究及考察结果(一),2008.
[6]陈运泰.汶川大地震的震源破裂过程[R].海峡两岸防震减灾学术研讨会,北京,2008.
[7]我思故我.听汶川地震专家吴冲龙教授谈地震14条小结.(2008-05-21)[2013-06-20].http:∥hi.baidu.com/wangyuxiong/blog/item/b6b8a2dd4bfbfdea77c63819.html,2008.
[8]嵇少丞.地震与中国大陆形影相随[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.
[9]曾佐勋,王杰.芦山地震:一个成功的中期预测案例[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):21-24.
[10]杨巍然,曾佐勋,李德威,等.板内地震过程的三层次构造模式[J].地学前缘,2009,16(1):206-217.
[11]李德威.初论地球自然灾害系统[J].地质科技情报,2012,31(5):69-75.
[12]李德威.取热减灾减排圆梦美丽地球[N].中国科学报,2013-03-11(6).
[13]李德威,陈桂凡,陈继乐,等.地震预测:从芦山地震到大陆地震[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):1-10.
[14]《看天下》编辑部.地震预报纠结50年[J].Vista看天下,2013(11):66,68-69.
[15]陈斌.应该取消地震局吗?地震减灾:预警与预报之辨[N].南方周末,2013-05-16(F31).
[16]迈尔-舍恩柏格.大数据时代:生活、工作与思维的大变革[M].杭州:浙江人民出版社,2013.
[17]徐道一,邓志辉,楚全芝,等.对日本9级地震的中期预测及其依据[J].地质力学学报,2012,18(1):91-96.
[18]徐道一.2003年9月27日俄蒙中边界7.9级地震的中期预测及其重要意义[J].中国地震,2004,20(4):341-346.
[19]徐道一.汶川巨震、印度尼西亚巨震及其与青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系的关系[M]∥康玉柱,王宗秀.学习李四光的创新精神,发展地质力学理论:著名地质学家李四光诞辰120周年纪念.北京:大地出版社,2009:147-152.
[20]徐道一.翁文波院士信息预测理论体系的创新性及其意义[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1375-1379.
[21]汪成民.周恩来、李四光、钱学森是我研究地震预测的引路人[J].留学生,2013(5):56-58.
[22]陈运泰.地震预测要知难而进[J].求是,2008(15):58-60.
[23]陈运泰,杨智娴,张勇,等.从汶川地震到芦山地震[J].中国科学:D辑,2013,43:1064-1072.
[24]姬玮.地震预报难题或由中国学者攻克:访中国地质大学教授刘本培[J].地球,2011(4):141-148.
①中国地震局地质研究所.中国大陆构造活动背景分析及2013年度地震危险性预测研究:2013年度地震会商报告.北京:中国地震局地质研究所,2012-12-02:29-30.
①郭增建,郭安宁.2013年天灾预测意见汇编.北京:中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会,2013-04:14.
①当时适值2013年天灾预测学术会议在郑州召开,陈维生打电话告知耿庆国,早7点早餐时,耿庆国急切地向与会许多专家打了招呼,告知“依据全国气温自记曲线出现大面积断点的情况,国内今天恐有大震发生”。结果当日8:02四川芦山发生了7.0级地震。
①徐道一,孙文鹏,朱铭.在三江地区修筑多个拦江大坝的地震、地质灾害风险很大.北京:中国地震局地质研究所,2012.
[2]郭增建,秦保燕,郭安宁.地气耦合与天灾预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[3]郭增建,秦保燕,吴谨冰.由三性法和静中动判据预测大震[J].地学前缘,2003,10(1):210-211.
[4]柴会群.雅安地震:这一次本来预测中了[N].南方周末,2013-05-16(A6).
[5]陈运泰,许力生,张勇,等.2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告[R/OL].http:∥www.cea-igp.ac.cn/汶川地震专题/地震情况/初步研究及考察结果(一),2008.
[6]陈运泰.汶川大地震的震源破裂过程[R].海峡两岸防震减灾学术研讨会,北京,2008.
[7]我思故我.听汶川地震专家吴冲龙教授谈地震14条小结.(2008-05-21)[2013-06-20].http:∥hi.baidu.com/wangyuxiong/blog/item/b6b8a2dd4bfbfdea77c63819.html,2008.
[8]嵇少丞.地震与中国大陆形影相随[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.
[9]曾佐勋,王杰.芦山地震:一个成功的中期预测案例[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):21-24.
[10]杨巍然,曾佐勋,李德威,等.板内地震过程的三层次构造模式[J].地学前缘,2009,16(1):206-217.
[11]李德威.初论地球自然灾害系统[J].地质科技情报,2012,31(5):69-75.
[12]李德威.取热减灾减排圆梦美丽地球[N].中国科学报,2013-03-11(6).
[13]李德威,陈桂凡,陈继乐,等.地震预测:从芦山地震到大陆地震[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):1-10.
[14]《看天下》编辑部.地震预报纠结50年[J].Vista看天下,2013(11):66,68-69.
[15]陈斌.应该取消地震局吗?地震减灾:预警与预报之辨[N].南方周末,2013-05-16(F31).
[16]迈尔-舍恩柏格.大数据时代:生活、工作与思维的大变革[M].杭州:浙江人民出版社,2013.
[17]徐道一,邓志辉,楚全芝,等.对日本9级地震的中期预测及其依据[J].地质力学学报,2012,18(1):91-96.
[18]徐道一.2003年9月27日俄蒙中边界7.9级地震的中期预测及其重要意义[J].中国地震,2004,20(4):341-346.
[19]徐道一.汶川巨震、印度尼西亚巨震及其与青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系的关系[M]∥康玉柱,王宗秀.学习李四光的创新精神,发展地质力学理论:著名地质学家李四光诞辰120周年纪念.北京:大地出版社,2009:147-152.
[20]徐道一.翁文波院士信息预测理论体系的创新性及其意义[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1375-1379.
[21]汪成民.周恩来、李四光、钱学森是我研究地震预测的引路人[J].留学生,2013(5):56-58.
[22]陈运泰.地震预测要知难而进[J].求是,2008(15):58-60.
[23]陈运泰,杨智娴,张勇,等.从汶川地震到芦山地震[J].中国科学:D辑,2013,43:1064-1072.
[24]姬玮.地震预报难题或由中国学者攻克:访中国地质大学教授刘本培[J].地球,2011(4):141-148.
①中国地震局地质研究所.中国大陆构造活动背景分析及2013年度地震危险性预测研究:2013年度地震会商报告.北京:中国地震局地质研究所,2012-12-02:29-30.
①郭增建,郭安宁.2013年天灾预测意见汇编.北京:中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会,2013-04:14.
①当时适值2013年天灾预测学术会议在郑州召开,陈维生打电话告知耿庆国,早7点早餐时,耿庆国急切地向与会许多专家打了招呼,告知“依据全国气温自记曲线出现大面积断点的情况,国内今天恐有大震发生”。结果当日8:02四川芦山发生了7.0级地震。
①徐道一,孙文鹏,朱铭.在三江地区修筑多个拦江大坝的地震、地质灾害风险很大.北京:中国地震局地质研究所,2012.
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