地球低阶重力场系数J_2异常变化与地震活动的关系研究
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摘要
1992—2011年地球低阶重力场系数J2先后发生了两次异常变化,时间段约为1997—2000年、2007—2010年;根据中国地震台网(CSN)公布的地震目录,收集1990—2012年间发生在中国大陆MS≥3.0的所有地震资料,初步分析了J2异常变化与地震活动的关系。文中分别对浅源(深度范围0≤h≤70km)MS≥5.0、MS≥6.0和中源(深度范围70≤h≤300km)MS≥3.0、MS≥3.5、MS≥4.0地震总数进行了统计分析,建立了地震活动频次随时间变化的时间序列。文中将地震频次时间序列与地球低阶重力场系数J2长期变化作对比分析,结果显示:(1)浅源地震活动存在3个明显的峰值,第一个峰值和第二个峰值出现的时间段分别和"98异常"、"07异常"时间段吻合,第三峰值时间段和地球自转速率转变时刻吻合;(2)中源地震活动与浅源地震活动存在差异,前者仅存在两个明显的峰值,第一峰值出现的时间段和"98异常"吻合,第二峰值相对于"07异常"出现后移现象,然而小波多分辨率分析显示地震频次时间序列的小波细节系数发生显著变化的时段和"07异常"非常吻合;(3)中国大陆发生的7级以上的地震,62.5%位于J2异常变化期间、纬度集中分布于J2节点线35.3°附近。这些结果表明:J2异常变化可能会对中国大陆地震活动产生较显著的影响;地球自转速率转变的时刻对浅源地震活动产生较显著影响,而对中源地震活动影响不明显。最后从地球重力学以及J2变化与地球自转的关系方面分析J2异常变化与地震活动的关系。研究显示:1992—2011年间J2发生的两次异常变化的时间间隔大致为10a,这和地球自转"10a起伏"变化相吻合,这些结果对中国大陆地震孕育过程规律的认识以及地震预测研究具有一定的价值。
There were two anomalous changes that happened in the low degree gravity field coefficient J2during the 1992-2011,in two periods of about 1997-2000and 2007-2010;according to the earthquake catalog that reported by CNS,all the MS≥3.0seismic data in China Mainland during 1990-2012have been collected to make the preliminary analysis of the relationship between the J2anomalous change and the seismic activity.This paper makes statistical analysis of the total number of the shallow-focus MS≥5.0,MS≥6.0earthquakes(0≤h≤70km)and of the intermediate focus MS≥3.0,MS≥3.5,MS≥4.0earthquakes(70≤h≤300km)respectively to establish the time series of frequencies of earthquakes.This paper has made detailed comparison between the time series of frequencies of earthquakes and J2,and the results are as follows:(1)the shallowfocus earthquake activity has three peaks,the first peak time and the second peak time are consistent with"98anomalous"and"07anomalous"respectively,and the third peak time is consistent with the transition period of Earth's rotation rate;(2)there are differences between the intermediate focus and shallow-focus earthquake activity,the former has only two obvious peaks,and the first peak time is consistent with"98anomalous",the second peak time appears the delay phenomenon relative to"07anomalous",however,the wavelet multiresolution analysis shows that the wavelet detailed coefficients of the time series of frequencies of earthquakes changed significantly in the time period that is perfectly consistent with"07anomalous";(3)the ratio of MS≥7.0earthquakes that happened during the time of J2 anomalous changing is 62.5%,and their latitude distribution is almost near the node line of J2about 35.3°N.These results show that J2anomalous change may lead to strong seismic activity in China Mainland,the transition of Earth's rotation rate could significantly affect the shallow-focus earthquake activity but not the intermediate-focus earthquake activity.In the end,this paper studies the relationship between J2variations and seismic activity from the aspects of Earth gravity and the relationship between J2and the Earth rotation.The results are valuable to us for further understanding the process of earthquake pregnancy and researching earthquake prediction.
There were two anomalous changes that happened in the low degree gravity field coefficient J2during the 1992-2011,in two periods of about 1997-2000and 2007-2010;according to the earthquake catalog that reported by CNS,all the MS≥3.0seismic data in China Mainland during 1990-2012have been collected to make the preliminary analysis of the relationship between the J2anomalous change and the seismic activity.This paper makes statistical analysis of the total number of the shallow-focus MS≥5.0,MS≥6.0earthquakes(0≤h≤70km)and of the intermediate focus MS≥3.0,MS≥3.5,MS≥4.0earthquakes(70≤h≤300km)respectively to establish the time series of frequencies of earthquakes.This paper has made detailed comparison between the time series of frequencies of earthquakes and J2,and the results are as follows:(1)the shallowfocus earthquake activity has three peaks,the first peak time and the second peak time are consistent with"98anomalous"and"07anomalous"respectively,and the third peak time is consistent with the transition period of Earth's rotation rate;(2)there are differences between the intermediate focus and shallow-focus earthquake activity,the former has only two obvious peaks,and the first peak time is consistent with"98anomalous",the second peak time appears the delay phenomenon relative to"07anomalous",however,the wavelet multiresolution analysis shows that the wavelet detailed coefficients of the time series of frequencies of earthquakes changed significantly in the time period that is perfectly consistent with"07anomalous";(3)the ratio of MS≥7.0earthquakes that happened during the time of J2 anomalous changing is 62.5%,and their latitude distribution is almost near the node line of J2about 35.3°N.These results show that J2anomalous change may lead to strong seismic activity in China Mainland,the transition of Earth's rotation rate could significantly affect the shallow-focus earthquake activity but not the intermediate-focus earthquake activity.In the end,this paper studies the relationship between J2variations and seismic activity from the aspects of Earth gravity and the relationship between J2and the Earth rotation.The results are valuable to us for further understanding the process of earthquake pregnancy and researching earthquake prediction.
引文
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[7]Cox C,Chao F.Detection of a large-Scale mass redistribution in the terrestrial system since 1998[J].Science,2002,297:831-833.
[8]张子占,陆洋,许厚泽.GRACE和SLR观测的地球动力学扁率最大熵谱及小波相关性[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(5):1383-1389.
[9]Dickey J O,Marcus S L,Viron O D,et al.Recent Earth oblateness variations:Unraveling climate and postglacial rebound effects[J].Science,2002,298:1975-1977.
[10]胡小工,Chen J L,黄珹,等.非潮汐海洋运动对地球动力学扁率变化的贡献[J].地球物理学报.2004,47(3):428-432.
[11]彭碧波,吴斌,许厚泽.低阶地球引力场长期变化的确定[J].测绘学报,2000,29(增刊):38-42.
[12]刘根友,朱耀仲,许厚泽,等.GPS监测中国沿海验潮站垂直运动观测研究[J].武汉大学学报:信息科学版,2005,30(12):1044-1047.
[13]章珂,刘贵志,邹大文,等.二进小波变换方法的地震信号分时分频去噪处理[J].地球物理学报,1996,39(2):265-271.
[14]李延兴,栾锡武,陆远忠,等.3个海洋板块运动加速导致全球地震活动增强[J].地球物理学进展,2011(5):1576-1582.
[15]李延兴,刘霞,郑智江.板块运动与地震活动的关系[C]∥中国地球物理学会第二十六届年会论文集(2010).北京:地震出版社,2010:707.
[16]虞志英,罗时芳,许世远,等.地球自转季节性变化与地震关系的初步分析[J].地球物理学报,1974,17(1):44-49.
[17]马利华,韩艳本,尹志强.地球自转速率变化及其与地球物理现象关系研究的进展[J].地球物理学进展,2004,19(4):968-974.
[18]马宗晋,杜品仁,洪汉净.地球构造与动力学[M].广州:广东科技出版社,2002:491-503.
[19]郭增建,秦保燕.35°线与大震预报[J].西北地震学报,1991,13(2):93-95.
[20]沈明军.北纬35°为地震多发带原因探析[J].西北地震学报,1992(1):55-61.
[21]郝晓光,许厚泽,刘大杰.地球的重力聚点及参数椭球的地球重力学性质[J].测绘学报,2000,29(2):109-113.
[22]易桂喜,龙锋,张致伟.汶川MS8.0地震余震震源机制时空分布特征[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(4):1213-1227.
[23]李德威,陈桂凡,陈继乐,等.地震预测:从芦山地震到大陆地震[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):1-10.
[24]徐锡伟,陈桂华,于贵华,等.芦山地震构造及其与汶川地震的关系[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):11-20.
[25]曾佐勋,王杰.雅安地震:一个成功的中期预测案例[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):21-24.
[26]胡小刚,郝晓光.汶川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(6):1726-1734.
[27]魏子卿.地球主惯性矩[J].测绘学报,2005,34(1):7-13.
[28]郝晓光,方剑,柳林涛,等.水准椭球密度问题研究[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(2):392-397.
[29]郝晓光,许厚泽,刘大杰.参数椭球数学性质的初步研究[J].测绘学报,2001,30(3):203-207.
[30]段鹏硕,刘根友,胡小刚,等.重力聚点的地球重力学性质与J2项的关系[J].地球物理学进展,2013,28(4):1700-1706.
[31]Stephenson F R.Historical eclipses and Earth's rotation[J].Astronomy&Geophysics,2003,44(2):22.
[32]Gross R S I,Menemenlis F D,Gegout P.Atmospheric and oceanic excitation of length-of-day variations during 1980-2000[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2004,109,B01406,doi:10.1029/2003JB002432.
[2]陈学忠,李艳娥,王恒信,等.2004年印尼苏门答腊M W9.0地震前地震活动增强现象及其与地球自转的关系[J].地球物理学报,2013,56(1):79-90.
[3]Nerem R S,Chao B F,Au A Y,et al.Temporal variations of the Earth's gravitational field from satellite laser ranging to Lageos[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1993,20:595-598.
[4]Cheng M K,Shum C K,Tapley B D.Determination of longterm changes in the Earth's gravity field from satellite laser ranging observations[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1997,102:6216-6236.
[5]Chao B F.Earth's oblateness and its temporal variations[J].Comptes Rendus Geoscience,2006,338:1123-1129.
[6]Dong D,Grins R S,Dickey J O.Seasonal variations of the Earth's gravitational field:An analysis of atmospheric and ocean tidal excitation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1996,23:725-728.
[7]Cox C,Chao F.Detection of a large-Scale mass redistribution in the terrestrial system since 1998[J].Science,2002,297:831-833.
[8]张子占,陆洋,许厚泽.GRACE和SLR观测的地球动力学扁率最大熵谱及小波相关性[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(5):1383-1389.
[9]Dickey J O,Marcus S L,Viron O D,et al.Recent Earth oblateness variations:Unraveling climate and postglacial rebound effects[J].Science,2002,298:1975-1977.
[10]胡小工,Chen J L,黄珹,等.非潮汐海洋运动对地球动力学扁率变化的贡献[J].地球物理学报.2004,47(3):428-432.
[11]彭碧波,吴斌,许厚泽.低阶地球引力场长期变化的确定[J].测绘学报,2000,29(增刊):38-42.
[12]刘根友,朱耀仲,许厚泽,等.GPS监测中国沿海验潮站垂直运动观测研究[J].武汉大学学报:信息科学版,2005,30(12):1044-1047.
[13]章珂,刘贵志,邹大文,等.二进小波变换方法的地震信号分时分频去噪处理[J].地球物理学报,1996,39(2):265-271.
[14]李延兴,栾锡武,陆远忠,等.3个海洋板块运动加速导致全球地震活动增强[J].地球物理学进展,2011(5):1576-1582.
[15]李延兴,刘霞,郑智江.板块运动与地震活动的关系[C]∥中国地球物理学会第二十六届年会论文集(2010).北京:地震出版社,2010:707.
[16]虞志英,罗时芳,许世远,等.地球自转季节性变化与地震关系的初步分析[J].地球物理学报,1974,17(1):44-49.
[17]马利华,韩艳本,尹志强.地球自转速率变化及其与地球物理现象关系研究的进展[J].地球物理学进展,2004,19(4):968-974.
[18]马宗晋,杜品仁,洪汉净.地球构造与动力学[M].广州:广东科技出版社,2002:491-503.
[19]郭增建,秦保燕.35°线与大震预报[J].西北地震学报,1991,13(2):93-95.
[20]沈明军.北纬35°为地震多发带原因探析[J].西北地震学报,1992(1):55-61.
[21]郝晓光,许厚泽,刘大杰.地球的重力聚点及参数椭球的地球重力学性质[J].测绘学报,2000,29(2):109-113.
[22]易桂喜,龙锋,张致伟.汶川MS8.0地震余震震源机制时空分布特征[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(4):1213-1227.
[23]李德威,陈桂凡,陈继乐,等.地震预测:从芦山地震到大陆地震[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):1-10.
[24]徐锡伟,陈桂华,于贵华,等.芦山地震构造及其与汶川地震的关系[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):11-20.
[25]曾佐勋,王杰.雅安地震:一个成功的中期预测案例[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):21-24.
[26]胡小刚,郝晓光.汶川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(6):1726-1734.
[27]魏子卿.地球主惯性矩[J].测绘学报,2005,34(1):7-13.
[28]郝晓光,方剑,柳林涛,等.水准椭球密度问题研究[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(2):392-397.
[29]郝晓光,许厚泽,刘大杰.参数椭球数学性质的初步研究[J].测绘学报,2001,30(3):203-207.
[30]段鹏硕,刘根友,胡小刚,等.重力聚点的地球重力学性质与J2项的关系[J].地球物理学进展,2013,28(4):1700-1706.
[31]Stephenson F R.Historical eclipses and Earth's rotation[J].Astronomy&Geophysics,2003,44(2):22.
[32]Gross R S I,Menemenlis F D,Gegout P.Atmospheric and oceanic excitation of length-of-day variations during 1980-2000[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2004,109,B01406,doi:10.1029/2003JB002432.
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