从新疆地区主余震活动看地震静态应力触发模型
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摘要
选取新疆地区1970年以来15次MS6.0以上地震作为源地震,MS4.0以上余震作为目标余震,对地震静态应力触发模型进行检验分析。结果表明,地震静态应力触发模型在新疆地区存在问题,80%的源地震发生后,其ΔCFS正区目标余震数量少于负区目标余震数量;33%的源地震发生后,其正区目标余震数量远少于负区目标余震数量(前者不到后者的一半);只有13.3%的源地震发生后,其正区目标余震数量远多于负区目标余震数量(前者是后者的2倍以上)。即使考虑源地震的震源深度、断层面走向、倾向和滑动角的不确定性因素,基本结果相同。在大多数震例中,发生在ΔCFS负区的目标余震数量多于发生在正区的目标余震数量,与地震静态应力触发模型不一致。作者进一步推论认为,基于应力、应变的增量变化进行地震短期预测是有局限性的。
We select 15 earthquakes with MS≥6.0 in Xinjiang since 1970 as "source earthquakes",and aftershocks of MS≥4.0 as target aftershocks.Test analysis has been done on the static stress triggering model.The results show that the static stress triggering model is not so applicable in the Xinjiang region.For 80%of source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is less than that in negative area;for 33%of source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is far less than that in negative area(the former is less than half of the latter);only for 13.3%of the source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is far more than that in negative area(the former is twice of the latter).Even the uncertainties are considered,e.g.the focal depth of the source earthquakes,the fault plane orientation and the slip angle,the results are basically the same.In most shock events,target earthquakes in negative ΔCFS area are more in number than that occurred in the positive area,which does not accord with static stress triggering model.The further inference is that the short-term earthquake prediction based on stress and strain increment changes is limited.
We select 15 earthquakes with MS≥6.0 in Xinjiang since 1970 as "source earthquakes",and aftershocks of MS≥4.0 as target aftershocks.Test analysis has been done on the static stress triggering model.The results show that the static stress triggering model is not so applicable in the Xinjiang region.For 80%of source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is less than that in negative area;for 33%of source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is far less than that in negative area(the former is less than half of the latter);only for 13.3%of the source earthquakes,the number of target aftershocks in positive ΔCFS area is far more than that in negative area(the former is twice of the latter).Even the uncertainties are considered,e.g.the focal depth of the source earthquakes,the fault plane orientation and the slip angle,the results are basically the same.In most shock events,target earthquakes in negative ΔCFS area are more in number than that occurred in the positive area,which does not accord with static stress triggering model.The further inference is that the short-term earthquake prediction based on stress and strain increment changes is limited.
引文
彼雅泊A.2006.孔隙弹性介质中的震后流体与库仑应力变化[J].尚丹,王星辉译.世界地震译丛,3:76—85.
Piombo A,Martinelli G,Dragoni M.2005.Post-seismic fluid flow and Coulomb stress changes in a poroelastic mudeum[J].Geophy J Int,162:507—515.
陈兵,江在森,车时,等.2003.玛尼7.9级地震对昆仑山口西8.1级地震的触发作用及动力学背景初探[J].中国地震,19(1):1—7.CHEN Bing,JIANG Zai-sen,CHE Shi,et al.2003.Study of triggering action between the Mani(MS7.9)and the Kunlun(MS8.1)great earthquakes and their dynamic background[J].Earthquake Research in China,19(1):1—7(in Chinese).
哥奇兰,韦多,田中.2006.地球潮汐能够触发浅源逆冲断层地震[J].朱大庆,邹本良译.世界地震译丛,2:7—11.
Cochran E,Vidale J,Tanaka S.2004.Earth tides can trigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes[J].Science,306:1164—1166.
郝平,田勤俭,傅征祥,等.2004a.2000年1月15日姚安6.5级地震较强余震的应力触发[J].地震研究,27(3):246—251.HAO Ping,TIAN Qin-jian,FU Zheng-xiang,et al.2004a.Study of stress triggering of strong aftershocks following the Yao'an MS6.5earthquake on January15,2000[J].Journal of Seismological Research,27(3):246—251(in Chi-nese).
郝平,傅征祥,田勤俭,等.2004b.昆仑山口西8.1级地震强余震库仑破裂应力触发研究[J].地震学报,26(1):30—37.HAO Ping,FU Zheng-xiang,TIAN Qin-jian,et al.2004b.Large aftershocks triggering by Coulomb failure stress follow-ing the2001MS=8.1great Kunlun earthquake[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(1):30—37(in Chinese).
郝平,傅征祥,田勤俭.2004c.1970年通海7.7级大地震强余震触发[J].地震,24(2):38—46.HAO Ping,FU Zheng-xiang,TIAN Qin-jian.2004c.The stress triggering of large aftershocks following the1970Tonghai great earthquake(M=7.7)[J].Earthquake,24(2):38—46(in Chinese).
李志海.2004.双差地震定位法及其初步应用研究[D]:[学位论文].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所.LI Zhi-hai.2004.The preliminary application of dual-difference earthquake location method[D].Master thesis.Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,CSB,Lanzhou(in Chinese).
李志伟,胥颐,郝天珧,等.2006.利用DE算法反演地壳速度模型和地震定位[J].地球物理学进展,21(2):370—378.LI Zhi-wei,XU Yi,HAO Tian-yao,et al.2006.Inversion of crustal velocity model and earthquake relocation by using differential evolution algorithm[J].Progress in Geophysics,21(2):370—378(in Chinese).
刘桂萍,傅征祥,李钢,等.2004.摩擦状态-速率依从的区域地震触发模型研究[J].地震,24(1):176—183.LIU Gui-ping,FU Zheng-xiang,LI Gang,et al.2004.Study on the frictional state-velocity dependent model of regional triggering seismicity[J].Earthquake,24(1):176—183(in Chinese).
陆明勇,郑文衡,胡志奇.2006.动态应力作用与地震机制的初步研究[J].地球物理学报,49(1):170—179.LU Ming-yong,ZHENG Wen-heng,HU Zhi-qi.2006.A preliminary study on efects of dynamical stress in relation to earthquake mechanism[J].Chinese J Geophys,49(1):170—179(in Chinese).
邱泽华,石耀霖.2004.地震应变变化的理论量级与最大传递距离关系[J].大地测量与地球动力学,24(2):99—105.QIU Ze-hua,SHI Yao-lin.2004.Relationship between theoretic magnitude and longest propagation distance of seismic strain change[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,24(2):99—105(in Chinese).
塞巴斯帝安.2006.利用统计地震模型从地震活动参数中获得流体信号[J].张彬,杨选辉译.世界地震译丛,7:120—129.
Sebastian H,Yosihiko O.2005.Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling[J].J Geophys Res,110:1029—1038.
邵志刚,傅容珊,薛霆虎,等.2009.库仑应力变化与余震对应关系的初步探讨:以集集地震为例[J].地球物理学进展,24(2):367—374.SHAO Zhi-gang,FU Rong-shan,XUE Ting-hu,et al.2009.Discussion about the relation of Coulumb stress changes and distribution of aftersocks for the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake[J].Progress in Geophys,24(2):367—374(in Chinese).
万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.2002.地震静态应力触发模型的全球检验[J].地震学报,24(3):302—316.WAN Yong-ge,WU Zhong-liang,ZHOU Gong-wei.et al.2002.Global test of seismic static stress triggering model[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,24(3):302—316(in Chinese).
万永革,沈正康,刁桂苓,等.2008.利用小震分布和区域应力场确定大震断层面参数方法及其在唐山地震序列中的应用[J].地球物理学报,51(3):793—804.WAN Yong-ge,SHEN Zheng-kang,DIAO Gui-ling,et al.2008.An algorithm of fault parameter determination using dis-tribution of small earthquakes and parameters of regional stress field and its application to Tangshan earthquake se-quence[J].Chinese J Geophysics,51(3):569—583.
万永革.2001.“地震静态应力触发”问题的研究[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.WAN Yong-ge.2001.Research on“seismic static stress triggering”problem[D].Ph D thesis.Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing(in Chinese).
王福昌,万永革,胡顺田.2008a.粒子群算法在主震断层面参数估计中的应用[J].地震研究,31(2):149—154.WANG Fu-chang,WAN Yong-ge,HU Shun-tian.2008a.Application of particle swarm optimization to the estimation of mainshock fault plane parameters[J].Journal of Seismological Research,31(2):149—154(in Chinese).
王福昌,万永革,胡顺田.2008b.用随机启发式优化算法反演2003年云南大姚地震断层面参数的比较研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,29(1):2—4.WANG Fu-chang,WAN Yong-ge,HU Shun-tian.2008b.The comparison of inversion study in estimating the fault plane parameters of Yunnan Dayao earthquake in2003based on stochastic heuristics optimization algorithms[J].Seis-mological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,29(1):2—4(in Chinese).
王凯英.2009.断-块模型中走滑型地震应力触发研究:以青藏高原北部几次强震为例[J].地球物理学报,52(7):1776—1781.WANG Kai-ying.2009.Stress triggering of strike-slip earthquakes in fault-block models:A case of several strong earth-quakes in northern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Chinese J Geophys,52(7):1776—1781(in Chinese).
王琼,陈学忠,王海涛.2006.2003年2月24日新疆巴楚-伽师MS6.8地震的静态库仑应力触发作用[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,23(2):213—220.WANG Qiong,CHEN Xue-zhong,WANG Hai-tao.2006.Stress triggering of static Coulomb stress of Xinjiang Bachu-Jiashi earthquake of MS6.8[J].Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,23(2):213—220(in Chinese).
吴小平,付虹,Michel B,等.2007.完全库仑破裂应力变化与云南龙陵震群序列的应力触发[J].地球物理学报,50(4):1111—1122.WU Xiao-Ping,FU Hong,Michel B,et al.2007.Complete Coulomb failure stress changes and stress triggering of Yun-nan Longling earthquake sequence[J].Chinese J Geophys,50(4):1111—1122(in Chinese).
张晶,郗钦文,杨林章,等.2007.引潮力与潮汐应力对强震触发的研究[J].地球物理学报,50(2):448—454.ZHANG Jing,XI Qin-wen,YANG Lin-zhang,et al.2007.A study on tidal force/stress triggering of strong earthquakes[J].Chinese J Geophys,50(2):448—454(in Chinese).
周宇明,单斌,熊熊.2008.静态应力触发中影响库仑应力变化的参数敏感性分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,28(5):21—26.ZHOU Yu-ming,SHAN Bin,XIONG Xiong.2008.Parameters sensitivity analysis of Coulomb stress change in static stress triggering[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,28(5):21—26(in Chinese).
Beroza G,Zoback M.1993.Mechanism diversity of the Loma Prieta aftershocks and the mechanics of mainshock-after-shock interaction[J].Science,259:210—213.
Bonafade M,Parenti B,Rivalta E.2002.On strike-slip faulting in layered media[J].Geophys J Int,149:698—723.
Chinnery M.1963.The stress changes that accompany strike slip faulting[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,53(1):921—932.
Heaton T.1982.Tidal triggering of earthquakes[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,72(6):2181—2200.
Holl J H.1973.Genetic algorithms and the optional allocations of trials[J].SIAM Journal of Computing,2(2):88—105.
King G,Stein R,Lin J.1994.Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84(3):935—953.
Okada Y.1992.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,82:1018—1040.
Rothman D.1985.Nonlinear inversion statistical mechanics and statistics estimation[J].Geophysics,50:2784—2796.
Rybicki K.1971.The elastic residual field of a very long strike-slip fault in the presence of a discontinuity[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,61:79—92.
Rybicki K.1973.Analysis of aftershocks on the basis of dislocation theory[J].Phys Earth Panet Inter,7:409—422.
Simpson R W,Reasenberg P A.1994.Earthquake-induced static stress changes on central California Faults[A].In:Simpson R W(ed).The Loma Preita,California earthquake of October17,1989-Tectonic processes and models.U S Geol Surv Prof Pap,1550-F,F55-F89.
Piombo A,Martinelli G,Dragoni M.2005.Post-seismic fluid flow and Coulomb stress changes in a poroelastic mudeum[J].Geophy J Int,162:507—515.
陈兵,江在森,车时,等.2003.玛尼7.9级地震对昆仑山口西8.1级地震的触发作用及动力学背景初探[J].中国地震,19(1):1—7.CHEN Bing,JIANG Zai-sen,CHE Shi,et al.2003.Study of triggering action between the Mani(MS7.9)and the Kunlun(MS8.1)great earthquakes and their dynamic background[J].Earthquake Research in China,19(1):1—7(in Chinese).
哥奇兰,韦多,田中.2006.地球潮汐能够触发浅源逆冲断层地震[J].朱大庆,邹本良译.世界地震译丛,2:7—11.
Cochran E,Vidale J,Tanaka S.2004.Earth tides can trigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes[J].Science,306:1164—1166.
郝平,田勤俭,傅征祥,等.2004a.2000年1月15日姚安6.5级地震较强余震的应力触发[J].地震研究,27(3):246—251.HAO Ping,TIAN Qin-jian,FU Zheng-xiang,et al.2004a.Study of stress triggering of strong aftershocks following the Yao'an MS6.5earthquake on January15,2000[J].Journal of Seismological Research,27(3):246—251(in Chi-nese).
郝平,傅征祥,田勤俭,等.2004b.昆仑山口西8.1级地震强余震库仑破裂应力触发研究[J].地震学报,26(1):30—37.HAO Ping,FU Zheng-xiang,TIAN Qin-jian,et al.2004b.Large aftershocks triggering by Coulomb failure stress follow-ing the2001MS=8.1great Kunlun earthquake[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(1):30—37(in Chinese).
郝平,傅征祥,田勤俭.2004c.1970年通海7.7级大地震强余震触发[J].地震,24(2):38—46.HAO Ping,FU Zheng-xiang,TIAN Qin-jian.2004c.The stress triggering of large aftershocks following the1970Tonghai great earthquake(M=7.7)[J].Earthquake,24(2):38—46(in Chinese).
李志海.2004.双差地震定位法及其初步应用研究[D]:[学位论文].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所.LI Zhi-hai.2004.The preliminary application of dual-difference earthquake location method[D].Master thesis.Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,CSB,Lanzhou(in Chinese).
李志伟,胥颐,郝天珧,等.2006.利用DE算法反演地壳速度模型和地震定位[J].地球物理学进展,21(2):370—378.LI Zhi-wei,XU Yi,HAO Tian-yao,et al.2006.Inversion of crustal velocity model and earthquake relocation by using differential evolution algorithm[J].Progress in Geophysics,21(2):370—378(in Chinese).
刘桂萍,傅征祥,李钢,等.2004.摩擦状态-速率依从的区域地震触发模型研究[J].地震,24(1):176—183.LIU Gui-ping,FU Zheng-xiang,LI Gang,et al.2004.Study on the frictional state-velocity dependent model of regional triggering seismicity[J].Earthquake,24(1):176—183(in Chinese).
陆明勇,郑文衡,胡志奇.2006.动态应力作用与地震机制的初步研究[J].地球物理学报,49(1):170—179.LU Ming-yong,ZHENG Wen-heng,HU Zhi-qi.2006.A preliminary study on efects of dynamical stress in relation to earthquake mechanism[J].Chinese J Geophys,49(1):170—179(in Chinese).
邱泽华,石耀霖.2004.地震应变变化的理论量级与最大传递距离关系[J].大地测量与地球动力学,24(2):99—105.QIU Ze-hua,SHI Yao-lin.2004.Relationship between theoretic magnitude and longest propagation distance of seismic strain change[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,24(2):99—105(in Chinese).
塞巴斯帝安.2006.利用统计地震模型从地震活动参数中获得流体信号[J].张彬,杨选辉译.世界地震译丛,7:120—129.
Sebastian H,Yosihiko O.2005.Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling[J].J Geophys Res,110:1029—1038.
邵志刚,傅容珊,薛霆虎,等.2009.库仑应力变化与余震对应关系的初步探讨:以集集地震为例[J].地球物理学进展,24(2):367—374.SHAO Zhi-gang,FU Rong-shan,XUE Ting-hu,et al.2009.Discussion about the relation of Coulumb stress changes and distribution of aftersocks for the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake[J].Progress in Geophys,24(2):367—374(in Chinese).
万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.2002.地震静态应力触发模型的全球检验[J].地震学报,24(3):302—316.WAN Yong-ge,WU Zhong-liang,ZHOU Gong-wei.et al.2002.Global test of seismic static stress triggering model[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,24(3):302—316(in Chinese).
万永革,沈正康,刁桂苓,等.2008.利用小震分布和区域应力场确定大震断层面参数方法及其在唐山地震序列中的应用[J].地球物理学报,51(3):793—804.WAN Yong-ge,SHEN Zheng-kang,DIAO Gui-ling,et al.2008.An algorithm of fault parameter determination using dis-tribution of small earthquakes and parameters of regional stress field and its application to Tangshan earthquake se-quence[J].Chinese J Geophysics,51(3):569—583.
万永革.2001.“地震静态应力触发”问题的研究[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.WAN Yong-ge.2001.Research on“seismic static stress triggering”problem[D].Ph D thesis.Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing(in Chinese).
王福昌,万永革,胡顺田.2008a.粒子群算法在主震断层面参数估计中的应用[J].地震研究,31(2):149—154.WANG Fu-chang,WAN Yong-ge,HU Shun-tian.2008a.Application of particle swarm optimization to the estimation of mainshock fault plane parameters[J].Journal of Seismological Research,31(2):149—154(in Chinese).
王福昌,万永革,胡顺田.2008b.用随机启发式优化算法反演2003年云南大姚地震断层面参数的比较研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,29(1):2—4.WANG Fu-chang,WAN Yong-ge,HU Shun-tian.2008b.The comparison of inversion study in estimating the fault plane parameters of Yunnan Dayao earthquake in2003based on stochastic heuristics optimization algorithms[J].Seis-mological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,29(1):2—4(in Chinese).
王凯英.2009.断-块模型中走滑型地震应力触发研究:以青藏高原北部几次强震为例[J].地球物理学报,52(7):1776—1781.WANG Kai-ying.2009.Stress triggering of strike-slip earthquakes in fault-block models:A case of several strong earth-quakes in northern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J].Chinese J Geophys,52(7):1776—1781(in Chinese).
王琼,陈学忠,王海涛.2006.2003年2月24日新疆巴楚-伽师MS6.8地震的静态库仑应力触发作用[J].中国科学院研究生院学报,23(2):213—220.WANG Qiong,CHEN Xue-zhong,WANG Hai-tao.2006.Stress triggering of static Coulomb stress of Xinjiang Bachu-Jiashi earthquake of MS6.8[J].Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,23(2):213—220(in Chinese).
吴小平,付虹,Michel B,等.2007.完全库仑破裂应力变化与云南龙陵震群序列的应力触发[J].地球物理学报,50(4):1111—1122.WU Xiao-Ping,FU Hong,Michel B,et al.2007.Complete Coulomb failure stress changes and stress triggering of Yun-nan Longling earthquake sequence[J].Chinese J Geophys,50(4):1111—1122(in Chinese).
张晶,郗钦文,杨林章,等.2007.引潮力与潮汐应力对强震触发的研究[J].地球物理学报,50(2):448—454.ZHANG Jing,XI Qin-wen,YANG Lin-zhang,et al.2007.A study on tidal force/stress triggering of strong earthquakes[J].Chinese J Geophys,50(2):448—454(in Chinese).
周宇明,单斌,熊熊.2008.静态应力触发中影响库仑应力变化的参数敏感性分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,28(5):21—26.ZHOU Yu-ming,SHAN Bin,XIONG Xiong.2008.Parameters sensitivity analysis of Coulomb stress change in static stress triggering[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,28(5):21—26(in Chinese).
Beroza G,Zoback M.1993.Mechanism diversity of the Loma Prieta aftershocks and the mechanics of mainshock-after-shock interaction[J].Science,259:210—213.
Bonafade M,Parenti B,Rivalta E.2002.On strike-slip faulting in layered media[J].Geophys J Int,149:698—723.
Chinnery M.1963.The stress changes that accompany strike slip faulting[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,53(1):921—932.
Heaton T.1982.Tidal triggering of earthquakes[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,72(6):2181—2200.
Holl J H.1973.Genetic algorithms and the optional allocations of trials[J].SIAM Journal of Computing,2(2):88—105.
King G,Stein R,Lin J.1994.Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84(3):935—953.
Okada Y.1992.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,82:1018—1040.
Rothman D.1985.Nonlinear inversion statistical mechanics and statistics estimation[J].Geophysics,50:2784—2796.
Rybicki K.1971.The elastic residual field of a very long strike-slip fault in the presence of a discontinuity[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,61:79—92.
Rybicki K.1973.Analysis of aftershocks on the basis of dislocation theory[J].Phys Earth Panet Inter,7:409—422.
Simpson R W,Reasenberg P A.1994.Earthquake-induced static stress changes on central California Faults[A].In:Simpson R W(ed).The Loma Preita,California earthquake of October17,1989-Tectonic processes and models.U S Geol Surv Prof Pap,1550-F,F55-F89.
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