全球巨大地震活动性分析
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摘要
通过分析全球巨大地震活动周期、活跃时段和活动空间分布特征,探讨未来全球发生巨大地震的活跃时段和主体区域.结果表明:①全球地震活动存在着置信度远超过95%的50年左右显著活动周期,此外还存在80—100年左右显著性不强的活动周期;②通过对全球地震MS≥8.3时间序列图和MS≥8.0应变能时间序列图分析,得到活跃期10—14年,平静期39—41年,2004年后又进入了巨大地震的强活跃期,可能会一直持续到2018年;③强活跃时段内发生的MS≥8.5巨大地震存在着一定的相关性,太平洋板块北边界(美国阿拉斯加附近区域—阿留申群岛—千岛群岛)是发生8.5级以上地震最关注的地区,其次是太平洋板块的南美洲边界(尤其是秘鲁及其周边区域),应对这两个地区进行重点关注和监测.本文从地震活动性角度研究巨大地震的强活跃期问题,并推测全球发生8.5级以上地震的活跃时段和主体地区,而对于其机理问题值得进一步深入研究.
This article studied possible active period and regions of future global huge earthquakes by analyzing the characteristics of their recurrence period,activity time and spatial distribution.The result shows:① Statistically there is a significant cycle of 50 years for global seismic activity,with confidence level far higher than 95%.In addition,there are also 80—100 years activity cycles,which are not so significant as above.② Through analyzing time series of global MS≥8.3 earthquakes,we found that globally the active period lasts for 10—14 years and quiet period is of 39—41 years.The latest strong activity began from 2004,and it may last to 2018.③ Global huge earthquakes showed evident repeatability.It seems that the northern boundary region of Pacific plate,i.e.,Alaska and its vicinity,Aleutian islands and Kuril islands,is the first area with possible huge earthquake of MS≥8.5 in the future,then the South America boundary of Pacific plate,especially Peru and its nearby,would be the second earthquake-prone area.We should focus on and monitor these two areas.The mechanism for huge earthquake recurrence period should be exploited in future.
引文
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