尼玛地震(M_S5.2)临震预测和流变构造
详细信息 本馆镜像全文    |  推荐本文 | | 获取馆网全文
摘要
俄罗斯科学院西伯利亚分院克拉斯诺亚尔斯克科学中心特殊技术设计局Sibgatulin于2013年5月7日11时55分,将天然电磁脉冲异常信息及分析意见通报给文章第一作者曾佐勋,指出在武汉的东、西两个方向上,具有发生MS6级左右地震的可能性。2013年5月7日22时20分,山东平原县职业中专宋松将其与宋科夫根据震兆日晕结合"七式、六形还原测震法"做出的地震预测意见通报了曾佐勋。意见中指出,2013年5月7—20日左右(甚至会在7天内),在新疆、青海、与西藏交界附近,将发生MS5.5~6.2的地震。在Sibgatulin和宋松等人的预测基础上,利用卫星热红外排气点观测法,曾佐勋于2013年5月8日0时54分,向宋松、王杰、潘黎黎发出预测意见。预测10日内有可能在西藏的排气点(31.5°N,89.0°E)发生MS6.0级左右地震,并于5月8日8时34分,向3人补充了另一排气点(31°N,86°E)的观测情况。2013年5月15日18:54:30,西藏那曲尼玛县(31.6°N,86.5°E)发生MS5.2级中强震,震源深度为10km。此次地震的发震时间落入宋松和曾佐勋的预测窗口;震中落入曾佐勋根据第二个排气点给出的预测范围;震级基本上落入Sibgatulin、宋松、宋科夫以及曾佐勋的预测范围。尼玛地震临震预测成功的意义在于这是一次两国三方合作的范例,也进一步验证了"地震预测需要多方法的综合分析"的认识。对该地区地壳结构剖面和活动断裂研究表明,此次地震的发震断层为来多—措迈北北西向右行走滑正断层;地震能量的积聚和存储与中地壳高导低速层关系密切;西藏地区断层活动受南北向挤压、东西向拉伸的现今构造应力场控制。
At 11:55of May 7,2013,Victor G.Sibgatulin in the Special Engineering Design Bureau,Krasnoyarsk Scientific Center,Siberian Department of Russian Academy of Science,informed Zeng Zuoxun,the first author of the paper,that the natural electromagnetic pulse anomalies indicated that there would be an earthquake of magnitude about MS6in the west or east direction of the Wuhan City of China.At 22:20of May 7,2013,Song Song in the Professional Secondary School of Pingyuan County,Dezhou,Shandong,China,informed Zeng Zuoxun about an earthquake prediction cooperated with Song Kefu,based on his observation of a precursory halo lasted for 10minutes beginning from 11o'clock of May 7,2013.They predicted that an earthquake with magnitude ranging from MS5.5to 6.2would occur in 7days in the adjoining area of Tibet,Xinjiang and Qinghai of West China.On the basis of the comprehensive analysis of the prediction of Victor Sibgatulin and the prediction of Song Song and Song Kefu,and an observation for the locations of a degasification of the earth in the Naqu,Tibet by Zeng Zuoxun himself,the first author made a prediction for an earthquake around MS6in 10days in the area of the degasification point(31.5°N,89.0°E)and E-mailed the prediction to Song Song,Wang Jie and Pan Lili at 0:54of May 8,2013.He offered another degasification point(31°N,86°E)for the epicenter prediction at 8:34of the same day.At 18:54:30of May 15,2013,an earthquake of MS5.2occurred in the Nima County,Naqu,China.The epicenter is located at 31.6°N,86.5°E.The focus is at the depth of 10km.The occurring time of the Nima earthquake fell into the time window of the prediction made byZeng Zuoxun and by Song Song and Song Kefu.The epicenter of the Nima earthquake fell into the area around the second degasification point.The Nima earthquake fell basically into the predicted magnitude by Victor Sibgatulin,by Song Song and Song Kefu and by Zuoxun Zeng.The significance of the successful imminent prediction of the Nima earthquake is that it is a successful case of the cooperation between two countries and among three institutions.It further proves that the successful prediction needs comprehensive analysis with multiple-method information.It is indicated by the section of the crust in the area around the epicenter and by the research of the active faults in the area that the NNW-trending Laiduo-Cuomai fault is the triggering fault of the Nima earthquake,that the concentration and storage of the earthquake energy was closely related to the high conductivelow velocity layer in the mid-crust and that the current stress field controlling the fault activities in the Tibet area is of characteristics of compression in SN direction and extension in EW direction.
引文
[1]曾佐勋,王杰.芦山地震:一次成功的中期预测[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):21-24.
    [2]吕大炯,高建国,孙士,等.地震云及其成因的探讨[J].自然杂志,1978(5):279-280.
    [3]宋松,尹延卓.“地震云”研究的发掘与古今中外史料择选[J].宁夏大学学报:自然科学版,1985(1):70-75.
    [4]键田忠三郎,真锅大觉,吕大炯.地震云[M].西安:陕西科学技术出版社,1981.
    [5]吕大炯.地震云观测[J].科学通报,1984(3):69-71.
    [6]Shou Z H.Precursor of the largest earthquake in the last 40years[J].New Concepts in Global Tectonics,2006,41(4):6-15.
    [7]Darrell H,Shou Z H.Bam earthquake prediction&space technology[J].Seminars of the United Nations Programme on Space Applications,2005,16:39-63.
    [8]Shou Z H,Xia J J,Shou W Y.Using the earthquake vapor theory to explain the French airbus crash[J].Remote Sensing Letter,2010,1(2):85-94.
    [9]王杰,张雄,潘黎黎,等.芦山地震(MS7.0)前甲烷释放与大气增温异常[J].地学前缘,2013,20(6):29-35.
    [10]强祖基,马蔼乃,曾佐勋,等.卫星热红外地震短临预测方法研究[J].地学前缘,2010,17(5):254-262.
    [11]强祖基,孔令昌,郭满红,等.卫星热红外增温机制的实验研究[J].地震学报,1997(2):87-91.
    [12]强祖基,姚清林,魏乐军,等.从震前卫星热红外图像看中国现今构造应力场特征[J].地球学报,2009(6):873-884.
    [13]徐秀登,徐向民,强祖基.红外临震异常的基本特征与成因机理再认识[J].浙江师范大学学报:自然科学版,1994(3):43-47.
    [14]徐秀登,徐向民.地震前红外异常的基本特征与成因机理[J].西北地震学报,2001(3):95-97.
    [15]姚清林,强祖基,王弋平.青藏高原地震前CO的排放与卫星热红外增温异常[J].地球科学进展,2005(5):505-510.
    [16]付孝悦,张修富.西藏高原石油地质[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2005:5-14,71-79.
    [17]杜德道,曲晓明,王根厚,等.西藏班公湖—怒江缝合带西段中特提斯洋盆的双向俯冲:来自岛弧型花岗岩锆石U-Pb年龄和元素地球化学的证据[J].岩石学报,2011,27(7):1993-2002.
    [18]杜德道.西藏班公湖—怒江缝合带(中段和西段)的花岗岩地球化学特征及其构造环境[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2012.
    [19]谭陈诚.日喀则东嘎乡冈底斯岩体的形成年代及成因[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2012.
    [20]杨巍然,王杰,梁晓.亚洲大地构造基本特征和演化规律[J].地学前缘,2012,19(5):1-17.
    [21]陈福明.从冈底斯岩浆杂岩带时空分布特征试论雅鲁藏布江深断裂的发生和发展[J].地球化学,1981(3):255-260.
    [22]袁万明,王世成,侯增谦.雅鲁藏布江逆冲带活动的裂变径迹定年证据[J].科学通报,2002(2):147-150.
    [23]武长得,朱红,邓宗策,等.雅鲁藏布江断裂带的构造特征[J].中国地质科学院院报,1990(2):87-94.
    [24]郑剑东,郑炳华.从卫星影象探讨西藏地震地质特征[J].地震地质,1982(4):35-44,88.
    [25]Sibgatulin V G,Peretokin S A,Khlebopros R G.震源区能量积累和释放过程的熵模型基本特征[J].地学前缘,2007,14(6):222-226.
    [26]杨巍然,曾佐勋,李德威,等.板内地震过程的三层次构造模式[J].地学前缘,2009,16(1):206-217.
    [27]李德威,陈桂凡,陈继乐,等.地震预测:从芦山地震到大陆地震[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):1-10.
    [28]陈建业,杨晓松.地震断层的渗透性[J].地学前缘,2012,19(4):30-41.
    [29]徐强,赵俊猛,崔仲雄,等.青藏高原班公湖—怒江缝合带中部的Moho错断[J].科学通报,2010(1):80-86.
    [30]熊绍柏,刘宏兵.青藏高原西部的地壳结构[J].科学通报,1997(12):1309-1312.
    [31]费琪.壳幔物质流变的底辟作用孕育大地震:卫星重力资料的证据[J].地学前缘,2009,16(3):282-293.
    ①宋松.用“七式、六形还原测震法”测报准洛杉矶7.4级大震的总结.2007天灾预测学术研讨会议文集.北京,2007.
    ②宋松.七式、六形还原测震法测报准了南投等大震.2003年天灾预测研讨会议文集.北京,2003:109-115.
    ③宋松,宋科夫.2008年5.12四川大震前我们所做的年度预测和两次强余震预测.2008天灾预测学术研讨会议文集.北京,2008:213.
    ④曾佐勋,强祖基,刘江平,等.地气、动物行为异常与地震短临预测系统.第四届全国构造会议论文摘要集.北京,2008.
    ⑤曾佐勋,强祖基,王杰.震前多点排气的地震预测方法探索.“全国灾害预测研讨会”会议报告.北京,2010.
    ⑥王杰,曾佐勋,莫皓然.强震前地球排气现象的两个实例.第五届全国构造地质学与地球动力学学术研讨会论文摘要集.武汉,2012.
    ①CMT工程(http:∥www.globalcmt.org)和中国地震局地球物理所(htttp:∥www.cea-igp.ac.cn/tpxw/266966.shtml)资料.
    ①据中国地震台网http:∥www.ceic.ac.cn/

版权所有:© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心