6级左右历史地震震源参数的模拟估计
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摘要
本文借鉴直接拟合烈度数据点和枚举震源参数的做法,设计了一种利用烈度资料估计6级左右历史地震震源参数的方法.该方法对震源参数所有可能的组合进行枚举,采用地震波场模拟计算转换的理论烈度值,利用模型选择方法评估各可能的震源参数组合模型与历史破坏记录推断的地震烈度数据点的拟合程度,对震源参数做出估计.该方法充分考虑到历史资料相对稀少对震源参数估计的影响,以多种震源参数估计结果和相应权重值来定量化表示估计的不确定性.通过对给定震中位置、震源深度和滑动角的Bootstrap数值恢复检测与2006年美国Parkfield 6.0级地震实例的测试,表明该方法得出的震源参数估计结果具有统计一致性和一定的无偏性.将该方法应用于1882年河北深县6级地震的震源参数估计,结果显示东西向旧城北断层或何庄断层及北东东走向的深西断层为深县地震的发震构造的可能性较大.
We herein describe a new approach to quantitatively estimate source parameters of historical earthquakes with magnitude ~6 using macroseismic data and synthetic seismograms.This approach enumerates all possible models with different source parameters(such as epicenter location,focal depth and rake),and obtains theoretic intensity distribution of each model from synthetic waveform modeling,then evaluate source models fitting degree for intensity data inferred from historical earthquake records to determine its parameters.We use multiple model solutions and model weights to give quantitatively the uncertainty of source parameters caused by relatively scarce historical information.This approach was tested with Bootstrap numerical cases for given sources with random deviations,and the well determined source parameters of the 2004 Parkfield M6.0 earthquake.The test showed that the result is robust statistically.Finally the approach is applied to the 1882 Shenxian M~6 earthquake occurred in Hebei province,China.Source parameters estimation results show that the Shenxian earthquake is caused possibly by Jiuchengbei fault or Hezhuang fault,or Shenxi fault.
We herein describe a new approach to quantitatively estimate source parameters of historical earthquakes with magnitude ~6 using macroseismic data and synthetic seismograms.This approach enumerates all possible models with different source parameters(such as epicenter location,focal depth and rake),and obtains theoretic intensity distribution of each model from synthetic waveform modeling,then evaluate source models fitting degree for intensity data inferred from historical earthquake records to determine its parameters.We use multiple model solutions and model weights to give quantitatively the uncertainty of source parameters caused by relatively scarce historical information.This approach was tested with Bootstrap numerical cases for given sources with random deviations,and the well determined source parameters of the 2004 Parkfield M6.0 earthquake.The test showed that the result is robust statistically.Finally the approach is applied to the 1882 Shenxian M~6 earthquake occurred in Hebei province,China.Source parameters estimation results show that the Shenxian earthquake is caused possibly by Jiuchengbei fault or Hezhuang fault,or Shenxi fault.
引文
[1]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年).北京:地震出版社,1995.Disaster Prevention Department of China EarthquakeAdministration.China Historical Earthquake Catalog(23rdCentury BC—1911AD)(in Chinese).Beijing:SeismologicalPress,1995.
[2]Musson R M W,Jeménes M J.Macroseismic estimation ofearthquake parameters.Sixth Framework Programme Report,2008.
[3]Bakun W H,Wentworth C M.Estimating earthquakelocation and magnitude from seismic intensity data.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1997,89(2):557.
[4]Bakun W H,Cópera A G,Stucchi M.Epistemic uncertaintyin the location and magnitude of earthquakes in Italy frommacroseismic data.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2011,101(6):2712-2725.
[5]陈培善.震源机制与烈度分布的关系(二).地球物理学报,1977,20(1):9-19.Chen P S.Relation between the seismic source mechanismand the intensity distribution(continued).Chinese J.Geophys.(Acta Geophysica Sinica)(in Chinese),1977,20(1):9-19.
[6]Sirovich L.A simple algorithm for tracing syntheticisoseismals.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1996,86(4):1019-1027.
[7]Fitzko F,Suhadolc P,Audia A,et al.Constraints on thelocation and mechanism of the 1511 Western-Sloveniaearthquake from active tectonics and modeling ofmacroseismic data.Tectonophysics,2005,404(1-2):77-90.
[8]Nunziata C,Sacco C,Panza G F.Modeling of ground motionat Napoli for the 1688scenario earthquake.Pure.Appl.Geophys.,2010,doi:10.1007/s00024-010-0113-1.
[9]周青云,周仕勇,陈棋福等.正演推算1730年北京西郊地震的发震断层和滑动角.地震研究,2008,31(4):369-376.Zhou Q Y,Zhou S Y,Chen Q F,et al.Forward inference ofthe causative fault and the slip angles of the faults of the 1730western Beijing earthquake.J.Seism.Res.(in Chinese),2008,31(4):369-376.
[10]Ding Z,Romanelli F,Chen Y T,et al.Realistic modeling ofseismic wave ground motion in Beijing city.Pure.Appl.Geophys.,2004,161(5-6):1093-1106,doi:10.1007/s00024-003-2498-6.
[11]Emolo A,Zollo A.Kinematic source parameters for the 1989Loma Prieta earthquake from the nonlinear inversion ofaccelerograms.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2005,95(3):981-994.
[12]Scherbaum F,Delavaud E,Riggelsen C.Model selection inseismic hazard analysis:An information-theoretic perspective.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2009,99(6):3234-3247.
[13]Burnham K P,Anderson D R.Model Selection and Multi-model Inference,A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach,2nd ed.New York:Springer-Verlag,2002.
[14]Akaike H.A new look at the statistical model identification.IEEE Trans.Autom.Control,1974,19(6):716-723.
[15]Liu L B,Arcone S A.Propagation of radar pulses from ahorizontal dipole in variable dielectric ground:A numericalapproach.Subsurface Sensing Technologies and Applications,2005,6(1):15-24.
[16]Aki K,Richards P G.Quantitative Seismology,2nd ed.Sausalito,California:University Science Books,2002.
[17]中国地震局监测预报司.一九九八年张北地震.北京:地震出版社,1998:2.Monitoring and Forecasting Department of China EarthquakeAdministration.1998 Zhangbei Earthquake(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1998:2.
[18]黄建平,倪四道,傅容珊等.综合近震及远震波形反演2006文安地震(Mw5.1)的震源机制解.地球物理学报,2009,52(1):120-130.Huang J P,Ni S D,Fu R S,et al.Source mechanism of the2006 Mw5.1 Wen′an Earthquake determined from a jointinversion of local and teleseismic broadband waveform data.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(1):120-130.
[19]Ma S,Custódio S,Archuleta R J,et al.Dynamic modelingof the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield,California,earthquake.J.Geophys.Res.,2008,113:B02301,doi:10.1029/2007JB005216.
[20]Mendoza C,Hartzell S.Finite-fault analysis of the 2004Parkfield,California,earthquake using pnl waveforms.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2008,98(6):2746-2755.
[21]Custódio S,Liu P C,Archuleta R J.The 2004 Mw6.0Parkfield,California,earthquake:Inversion of near-sourceground motion using multiple data sets.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2005,32(23):L23312,doi:10.1029/2005GL024417.
[22]McEvilly T V,Bakun W H,Casaday K B.The Parkfield,California,earthquakes of 1966.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1967,57(6):1221-1244.
[23]Wu F T.Parkfield earthquake of June 28,1966:magnitudeand source mechanism.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1968,58(2):689-709.
[24]梁富康,于兴河,李先平等.冀中坳陷深县凹陷的生长断层特点及其对沉积的控制作用.中国地质,2011,8(2):263-270.Liang F K,Yu X H,Li X P,et al.Growth faults inShenxian depression and their control over the sedimentation.Geology in China(in Chinese),2011,8(2):263-270.
[25]杨旭升,刘池阳,杨斌谊等.冀中坳陷衡水转换断裂带特征及演化.煤田地质与勘探,2004,32(3):5-8.Yang X S,Liu C Y,Yang B Y,et al.Characteristics andevolution of Hengshui transfer fault zones in Jizhongdepression.Coal Geology&Exploration(in Chinese),2004,32(3):5-8.
[26]龙峰,闻学泽,徐锡伟.华北地区地震活断层的震级-破裂长度、破裂面积的经验关系.地震地质,2006,28(4):511-535.Long F,Wen X Z,Xu X W.Empirical relationships betweenmagnitude and rupture length,and rupture area,forseismogenic active faults in North China.Seismology andGeology(in Chinese),2006,28(4):511-535.
[27]张秀梅.河北省地震资料汇编.北京:地震出版社,1990:324-327.Zhang X M.Hebei Earthquake Material Collection(inChinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1990:324-327.
[2]Musson R M W,Jeménes M J.Macroseismic estimation ofearthquake parameters.Sixth Framework Programme Report,2008.
[3]Bakun W H,Wentworth C M.Estimating earthquakelocation and magnitude from seismic intensity data.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1997,89(2):557.
[4]Bakun W H,Cópera A G,Stucchi M.Epistemic uncertaintyin the location and magnitude of earthquakes in Italy frommacroseismic data.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2011,101(6):2712-2725.
[5]陈培善.震源机制与烈度分布的关系(二).地球物理学报,1977,20(1):9-19.Chen P S.Relation between the seismic source mechanismand the intensity distribution(continued).Chinese J.Geophys.(Acta Geophysica Sinica)(in Chinese),1977,20(1):9-19.
[6]Sirovich L.A simple algorithm for tracing syntheticisoseismals.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1996,86(4):1019-1027.
[7]Fitzko F,Suhadolc P,Audia A,et al.Constraints on thelocation and mechanism of the 1511 Western-Sloveniaearthquake from active tectonics and modeling ofmacroseismic data.Tectonophysics,2005,404(1-2):77-90.
[8]Nunziata C,Sacco C,Panza G F.Modeling of ground motionat Napoli for the 1688scenario earthquake.Pure.Appl.Geophys.,2010,doi:10.1007/s00024-010-0113-1.
[9]周青云,周仕勇,陈棋福等.正演推算1730年北京西郊地震的发震断层和滑动角.地震研究,2008,31(4):369-376.Zhou Q Y,Zhou S Y,Chen Q F,et al.Forward inference ofthe causative fault and the slip angles of the faults of the 1730western Beijing earthquake.J.Seism.Res.(in Chinese),2008,31(4):369-376.
[10]Ding Z,Romanelli F,Chen Y T,et al.Realistic modeling ofseismic wave ground motion in Beijing city.Pure.Appl.Geophys.,2004,161(5-6):1093-1106,doi:10.1007/s00024-003-2498-6.
[11]Emolo A,Zollo A.Kinematic source parameters for the 1989Loma Prieta earthquake from the nonlinear inversion ofaccelerograms.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2005,95(3):981-994.
[12]Scherbaum F,Delavaud E,Riggelsen C.Model selection inseismic hazard analysis:An information-theoretic perspective.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2009,99(6):3234-3247.
[13]Burnham K P,Anderson D R.Model Selection and Multi-model Inference,A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach,2nd ed.New York:Springer-Verlag,2002.
[14]Akaike H.A new look at the statistical model identification.IEEE Trans.Autom.Control,1974,19(6):716-723.
[15]Liu L B,Arcone S A.Propagation of radar pulses from ahorizontal dipole in variable dielectric ground:A numericalapproach.Subsurface Sensing Technologies and Applications,2005,6(1):15-24.
[16]Aki K,Richards P G.Quantitative Seismology,2nd ed.Sausalito,California:University Science Books,2002.
[17]中国地震局监测预报司.一九九八年张北地震.北京:地震出版社,1998:2.Monitoring and Forecasting Department of China EarthquakeAdministration.1998 Zhangbei Earthquake(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1998:2.
[18]黄建平,倪四道,傅容珊等.综合近震及远震波形反演2006文安地震(Mw5.1)的震源机制解.地球物理学报,2009,52(1):120-130.Huang J P,Ni S D,Fu R S,et al.Source mechanism of the2006 Mw5.1 Wen′an Earthquake determined from a jointinversion of local and teleseismic broadband waveform data.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(1):120-130.
[19]Ma S,Custódio S,Archuleta R J,et al.Dynamic modelingof the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield,California,earthquake.J.Geophys.Res.,2008,113:B02301,doi:10.1029/2007JB005216.
[20]Mendoza C,Hartzell S.Finite-fault analysis of the 2004Parkfield,California,earthquake using pnl waveforms.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,2008,98(6):2746-2755.
[21]Custódio S,Liu P C,Archuleta R J.The 2004 Mw6.0Parkfield,California,earthquake:Inversion of near-sourceground motion using multiple data sets.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2005,32(23):L23312,doi:10.1029/2005GL024417.
[22]McEvilly T V,Bakun W H,Casaday K B.The Parkfield,California,earthquakes of 1966.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1967,57(6):1221-1244.
[23]Wu F T.Parkfield earthquake of June 28,1966:magnitudeand source mechanism.Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1968,58(2):689-709.
[24]梁富康,于兴河,李先平等.冀中坳陷深县凹陷的生长断层特点及其对沉积的控制作用.中国地质,2011,8(2):263-270.Liang F K,Yu X H,Li X P,et al.Growth faults inShenxian depression and their control over the sedimentation.Geology in China(in Chinese),2011,8(2):263-270.
[25]杨旭升,刘池阳,杨斌谊等.冀中坳陷衡水转换断裂带特征及演化.煤田地质与勘探,2004,32(3):5-8.Yang X S,Liu C Y,Yang B Y,et al.Characteristics andevolution of Hengshui transfer fault zones in Jizhongdepression.Coal Geology&Exploration(in Chinese),2004,32(3):5-8.
[26]龙峰,闻学泽,徐锡伟.华北地区地震活断层的震级-破裂长度、破裂面积的经验关系.地震地质,2006,28(4):511-535.Long F,Wen X Z,Xu X W.Empirical relationships betweenmagnitude and rupture length,and rupture area,forseismogenic active faults in North China.Seismology andGeology(in Chinese),2006,28(4):511-535.
[27]张秀梅.河北省地震资料汇编.北京:地震出版社,1990:324-327.Zhang X M.Hebei Earthquake Material Collection(inChinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1990:324-327.
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