新地震区划图潜在震源区划分的主要技术特色
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摘要
简要介绍了新地震区划图潜在震源区划分方案的形成过程,重点分析了潜在震源区三级划分、东西部地区潜在震源区划分技术途径的差异、不同级别活动块体边界带对高震级潜在震源区划分的控制作用、发震构造模型及其在潜在震源区划分中的应用等主要技术特色。共划分出29个地震带、77个地震构造区和1199个潜在震源区。与中国地震动参数区划图(2001)中综合方案相比,东西部地区潜在震源区的个数都有较大的增加,其中东部地区体现在震级上限6.0、6.5和7.0级的中强潜在震源区个数的明显增加,与划分工作中加强了该地区中强地震发震构造的判识研究相关;而西部地区体现在震级上限7.5和8.0级的高震级潜在震源区个数的大幅度增加,与划分工作中注重了活动块体边界带高震级潜在震源区划分,以及强调应用发震构造模型指导潜在震源区划分的技术特色相协调。
After a brief introduction to the working process in identifying the potential seismic sources for the update of National Seismic Zoning Map of China,this paper summarizes four technical highlights,i.e.adopting the principle of three-level delineation,developing different technical approaches for higher seismic activity areas(e.g.the western China) and lower seismic activity areas(e.g.eastern China) separately,enhancing the upper limit magnitude of the potential seismic sources along the boarding zone of larger active blocks,and emphasizing establishment of the seismogenic models in each seismotectonic province and its application on delineating potential seismic source.The principle of three-level delineation was adopted in order to illustrate special irregularity of earthquake distribution.The first level of delineation is seismic belt which size is large enough to containing adequate earthquake data for statistical analysis.The second level is seismotectonic province that is delineated in each seismic belt for distinguishing different seismic activity background.The third level is potential seismic source that is identified according to clearer structural and seismic features in corresponding seismotectonic province.There are 29 seismic belts,77 seismotectonic provinces,and 1199 potential seismic sources identified in China and adjacent region.Compared to the previous national seismic zoning map,the number of the potential seismic sources with higher-rank upper limit magnitude in western region is increased greatly.The number of the potential seismic sources of middle-rank magnitude in eastern region is increased too.
After a brief introduction to the working process in identifying the potential seismic sources for the update of National Seismic Zoning Map of China,this paper summarizes four technical highlights,i.e.adopting the principle of three-level delineation,developing different technical approaches for higher seismic activity areas(e.g.the western China) and lower seismic activity areas(e.g.eastern China) separately,enhancing the upper limit magnitude of the potential seismic sources along the boarding zone of larger active blocks,and emphasizing establishment of the seismogenic models in each seismotectonic province and its application on delineating potential seismic source.The principle of three-level delineation was adopted in order to illustrate special irregularity of earthquake distribution.The first level of delineation is seismic belt which size is large enough to containing adequate earthquake data for statistical analysis.The second level is seismotectonic province that is delineated in each seismic belt for distinguishing different seismic activity background.The third level is potential seismic source that is identified according to clearer structural and seismic features in corresponding seismotectonic province.There are 29 seismic belts,77 seismotectonic provinces,and 1199 potential seismic sources identified in China and adjacent region.Compared to the previous national seismic zoning map,the number of the potential seismic sources with higher-rank upper limit magnitude in western region is increased greatly.The number of the potential seismic sources of middle-rank magnitude in eastern region is increased too.
引文
2中国地震局地球物理研究所,中国地震局地质研究所,中国地震局工程力学研究所等,2001.中国地震动参数区划图编制报告.
1中国地震灾害防御中心,中国地震局地质研究所,中国地震局地质预测研究所,中国地震局地壳应力研究所,四川省地震局,甘肃省地震局,陕西省地震局,辽宁省地震局,新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,2010.中国及邻区地震区带和潜在震源区划分工作报告.报告汇总由陈国星、周本刚、高战武、周庆完成。
1周本刚,王明明等,2009.强震区高震级潜在震源区震级上限综合判定方法.科技支撑计划课题“强震危险区划关键技术研究”的子专题研究报告.
陈国星,田勤俭,周本刚,2006.黄河黑山峡大柳树坝址若干地震地质问题研究.震灾防御技术,1(3):186—197.
陈家庚,鄢家全,胥广银,郝玉芹,1999.论弱地震活动区评定最大潜在地震的原则和方法.中国地震,15(3):220—228.
房立华,吴建平,龙晓凯等,2013.四川芦山7.0级地震及其余震序列重定位研究.科学通报,(出版中).
高孟潭,2002.中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2001)主要特色与地震区划新动向.见:中国地震局地球物理所等,新世纪地震工程与防震减灾.北京:地震出版社,173—178.
高孟潭,2003.新的中国地震区划图.地震学报,25(6):630—636.
高孟潭,卢寿德,2006.关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨.震灾防御技术,1(1):1—6.
国家地震局,1996.中国地震烈度区划图(1990)概论.北京:地震出版社.
潘华,高孟潭,李金臣,2009.新版美国地震区划图源及其参数模型的分析与评述.震灾防御技术,4(2):131—140.
袁道阳,张培震,刘百篪等,2004.青藏高原东北缘晚第四纪活动构造的几何图像与构造转换.地质学报,78(2):270—278.
杨晓平,邓起东,张培震等,1998.北天山地区逆断裂—褶皱带构造与潜在震源区估计.地震地质.20(3):193—200.
杨晓平,冉洪流,2010.活动推覆构造区潜在震源的边界和震级上限——以1902年阿图什81/4级地震构造区为例.震灾防御技术,5(2):145—156.
周本刚,张裕明,董瑞树等,1997.划分潜在震源区的地震地质规则研究.中国地震,13(3):241—252.
周本刚,2002.发震构造特性在潜在震源区中的应用研究(博士学位论文).北京:中国地震局地质研究所.
周本刚,2004.论发震构造特性在潜在震源区参数确定中的应用.地震地质,26(4):750—760.
周本刚,杨晓平,杜龙,2008.广西防城-灵山断裂带活动性分段与潜在震源区划分研究.震灾防御技术,3(1):8—19.
中国地震局震害防御司,1995.中国历史地震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年).北京:地震出版社.
Cornell C.A.,1968.Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis.Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,58(5):1583—1606.
Gao Mengtan,2000.Seismic Zonation in China:Methodology and Application.Journal of Earthquake PredicationResearch,8(1):1—7.
McGuire R.K.,1987.Effects of uncertainty in seismicity on estimations of seismic hazard for the east of the UnitedStates.Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,67(3):1123—1136.
Mark W Stirling,2012.Earthquake hazard maps and objective testing:The hazard mapper’s point of view.Seismological Research Letters,83(2):2231—2232.
Mark D.Petersen,Arthur D.Frankel,Stephen C.Harmsen et al.,2008.Documentation for the 2008 Update of theUnited States National Seismic Hazard Maps.U.S.Geological Survey open-file report2008-1128,http://www.usgs.gov.
Reiter L.,1991.Earthquake Hazard Analysis-Issues and Insights.Columbia University Press,New York.
Seth Stein,Robert J.Geller and Main Liu,2011.Bad assumptions or bad luck:Why earthquake hazard maps need objective testing.Seismological Research Letter,82(5):623—626.
Seth Stein,Robert J.Geller and Main Liu,2012.Why earchquake hazard maps often fail and what to do about it.Tectonophysics,562-563:1—25.
Valentin I.Ulomov,2000.Regional Seismicity and Identification of Earthquake Source Zones for Seismic Zoning of Northern Eurasia.Journal of Earthquake Predication Research,8(1):79—91.
Zhou Bengang and Sun Jianbao,2000.Advances in Delineation of Potential Seismic Sources in China.Journal of Earthquake Predication Research,8(1):92—103.
1中国地震灾害防御中心,中国地震局地质研究所,中国地震局地质预测研究所,中国地震局地壳应力研究所,四川省地震局,甘肃省地震局,陕西省地震局,辽宁省地震局,新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,2010.中国及邻区地震区带和潜在震源区划分工作报告.报告汇总由陈国星、周本刚、高战武、周庆完成。
1周本刚,王明明等,2009.强震区高震级潜在震源区震级上限综合判定方法.科技支撑计划课题“强震危险区划关键技术研究”的子专题研究报告.
陈国星,田勤俭,周本刚,2006.黄河黑山峡大柳树坝址若干地震地质问题研究.震灾防御技术,1(3):186—197.
陈家庚,鄢家全,胥广银,郝玉芹,1999.论弱地震活动区评定最大潜在地震的原则和方法.中国地震,15(3):220—228.
房立华,吴建平,龙晓凯等,2013.四川芦山7.0级地震及其余震序列重定位研究.科学通报,(出版中).
高孟潭,2002.中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2001)主要特色与地震区划新动向.见:中国地震局地球物理所等,新世纪地震工程与防震减灾.北京:地震出版社,173—178.
高孟潭,2003.新的中国地震区划图.地震学报,25(6):630—636.
高孟潭,卢寿德,2006.关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨.震灾防御技术,1(1):1—6.
国家地震局,1996.中国地震烈度区划图(1990)概论.北京:地震出版社.
潘华,高孟潭,李金臣,2009.新版美国地震区划图源及其参数模型的分析与评述.震灾防御技术,4(2):131—140.
袁道阳,张培震,刘百篪等,2004.青藏高原东北缘晚第四纪活动构造的几何图像与构造转换.地质学报,78(2):270—278.
杨晓平,邓起东,张培震等,1998.北天山地区逆断裂—褶皱带构造与潜在震源区估计.地震地质.20(3):193—200.
杨晓平,冉洪流,2010.活动推覆构造区潜在震源的边界和震级上限——以1902年阿图什81/4级地震构造区为例.震灾防御技术,5(2):145—156.
周本刚,张裕明,董瑞树等,1997.划分潜在震源区的地震地质规则研究.中国地震,13(3):241—252.
周本刚,2002.发震构造特性在潜在震源区中的应用研究(博士学位论文).北京:中国地震局地质研究所.
周本刚,2004.论发震构造特性在潜在震源区参数确定中的应用.地震地质,26(4):750—760.
周本刚,杨晓平,杜龙,2008.广西防城-灵山断裂带活动性分段与潜在震源区划分研究.震灾防御技术,3(1):8—19.
中国地震局震害防御司,1995.中国历史地震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年).北京:地震出版社.
Cornell C.A.,1968.Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis.Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,58(5):1583—1606.
Gao Mengtan,2000.Seismic Zonation in China:Methodology and Application.Journal of Earthquake PredicationResearch,8(1):1—7.
McGuire R.K.,1987.Effects of uncertainty in seismicity on estimations of seismic hazard for the east of the UnitedStates.Bulletin of Seismological Society of America,67(3):1123—1136.
Mark W Stirling,2012.Earthquake hazard maps and objective testing:The hazard mapper’s point of view.Seismological Research Letters,83(2):2231—2232.
Mark D.Petersen,Arthur D.Frankel,Stephen C.Harmsen et al.,2008.Documentation for the 2008 Update of theUnited States National Seismic Hazard Maps.U.S.Geological Survey open-file report2008-1128,http://www.usgs.gov.
Reiter L.,1991.Earthquake Hazard Analysis-Issues and Insights.Columbia University Press,New York.
Seth Stein,Robert J.Geller and Main Liu,2011.Bad assumptions or bad luck:Why earthquake hazard maps need objective testing.Seismological Research Letter,82(5):623—626.
Seth Stein,Robert J.Geller and Main Liu,2012.Why earchquake hazard maps often fail and what to do about it.Tectonophysics,562-563:1—25.
Valentin I.Ulomov,2000.Regional Seismicity and Identification of Earthquake Source Zones for Seismic Zoning of Northern Eurasia.Journal of Earthquake Predication Research,8(1):79—91.
Zhou Bengang and Sun Jianbao,2000.Advances in Delineation of Potential Seismic Sources in China.Journal of Earthquake Predication Research,8(1):92—103.
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