一种将GPS观测应用于地震中短期预测的简单尝试
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摘要
本文尝试采用一种类似于加卸载响应比的简单算法将GPS观测应用于地震中短期预测。算法根据孕震区域在不同阶段的加卸载响应比变化判断未来地震的发生趋势:当地壳处于稳定状态时,得到的时间序列在1.0附近波动;而在临近地震之前会出现明显的异常高值。以2004年美国南加州的Parkfield地震为例对方法的有效性进行了研究,发现在地震发生前半年左右震中附近GPS台站得到加卸载响应比时间序列都发生了比较明显的异常变化;而一些距离震中较远台站却没有观察到类似的异常变化。这可能反映了孕震区地壳介质稳定性的变化,表明通过处理GPS观测资料可能获得新的地震前兆异常。
In this paper we attempt to develop a simple algorithm to apply GPS observations to the short-intermediate-term earthquake prediction practices.By using the Load Unload Response Ratio(LURR) values at different stages,the earthquake potentiality in a seismogenic region is evaluated.The LURR time series fluctuats around 1.0 when the source media is in a steady state,and becomes quite high just before a large earthquake.To show the validity of the approach,the 2004 Parkfield earthquake in southern California is chosen as the example.We find that about half a year before the earthquake the LURR time series derived from the nearby GPS stations increased obviously;while from some far GPS stations,we can not observe similar anomaly.Therefore,the anomaly may be resulted from the regional crust stability change.The fact suggests that we can get new precursory anomaly to predict large earthquake by properly disposing GPS measurement data.
In this paper we attempt to develop a simple algorithm to apply GPS observations to the short-intermediate-term earthquake prediction practices.By using the Load Unload Response Ratio(LURR) values at different stages,the earthquake potentiality in a seismogenic region is evaluated.The LURR time series fluctuats around 1.0 when the source media is in a steady state,and becomes quite high just before a large earthquake.To show the validity of the approach,the 2004 Parkfield earthquake in southern California is chosen as the example.We find that about half a year before the earthquake the LURR time series derived from the nearby GPS stations increased obviously;while from some far GPS stations,we can not observe similar anomaly.Therefore,the anomaly may be resulted from the regional crust stability change.The fact suggests that we can get new precursory anomaly to predict large earthquake by properly disposing GPS measurement data.
引文
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[18]Wang Q,Zhang P,Freymueller J,et al.Present-day crustaldeformation in China constrained by Global Positioning sys-tem measurements[J].Science,2001,294:574-577.
[19]Zhang P,Shen Z,Wang M,et al.Continuous deformation ofthe Tibetan Plateau from Global positioning system data[J].Geology,2004,32:809-812.
[20]Shen Z-K,J Lü,M Wang,et al.Contemporary crustal de-formation around the southeast borderland of the TibetanPlateau[J].J.Geophys.Res.,2005,110,B11409,doi:10.1029/2004JB003421.
[21]Sornette A,Sornette D.Earthquake rupture as a criticalpoint:Consequences for telluric precursors[J].Tectono-physics,1990,179:327-334.
[22]Sornette D,Sammis C G.Complex critical exponents fromrenormalization group theory of earthquakes:Implicationsfor earthquake predictions[J].J.Phys.I.France,1995,5:607-619.
[23]Sammis C G,Smith SW.Seismic cycles and the evolution ofstress correlation in cellular automation models of finite faultnetworks[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:307-334.
[24]Bowman D D,Ouillon G,Sammis C G,et al.An observa-tion test of the critical earthquake concept[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103(24):359-372.
[25]Knopoff L,Levshina T,Keilis-Borok V I,et al.Increasedlong range intermediate magnitude earthquake activity priorto strong earthquakes in California[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1996,101:5779-5796.
[26]Rundle J B,Klein W,Turcotte D L,et al.Precursory seis-mic activity and critical point phenomena[J].Pure Appl.Geo-phys.,2000,157:2,165-2,182.
[27]Jaume S C,Sykes L R.Evolution toward a critical point:Areview of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior tolarge great earthquakes[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:279-306.
[28]吴忠良.地震震源物理中的临界现象[M].北京:地震出版社,2000:1-284.
[29]Yin Xiang-chu,Chen Xue-zhong,Song Zhi-ping,et al.ANew Approach to Earthquake Prediction———The Load/Un-load Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].PAGEOPH,1995,145(3/4):701-715.
[30]Yin Xiang-chu,Wang Yu-cang,Peng Ke-yin,et al.Develop-ment of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction———Load/unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157:2365-2383.
[31]Cochran E S,Vidale J E,Tanaka S.Earthquake tides cantrigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes[J].Science,2004,306:1164-1166.
[32]Tanaka S,Ohtake M,Sato H.Tidal triggering of earth-quakes in Japan related to the regional tectonic stress[J].Earth Planets Space,2004,56:511-515.
[2]Holt W E,Chamot-Rooke N,Le Pichon X,et al.Velocityfield in Asia inferred from Quaternary fault slip rates andGlobal Positioning System observations[J].J.Geophys.Res.,2000,105(B8):19185-19209.
[3]Savage J C,W Gan,J L Svarc.Strain accumulation and rota-tion in the Eastern California Shear Zone[J].J.Geophys.Res.,(2001,106(B10):21995-22007.
[4]顾国华,申旭辉,王敏,等.中国大陆现今地壳水平运动基本特征[J].地震学报,2001,23(4):362-369.
[5]黄立人,王敏.中国大陆构造块体的现今活动和变形[J].地震地质,2003,25(1):23-32.
[6]沈正康,王敏,甘卫军,等.中国大陆现今构造应变率场及其动力学成因研究[J].地学前缘,2003,10(Z1):93-100.
[7]李铁明,邓志辉,吕弋培,等.鲜水河断裂带北段GPS测量及其运动特征[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(4):312-318.
[8]陈蜀俊,赵齐乐,曾佐勋,等.利用GPS监测和非连续介质力学研究阿尔金断裂对中国大陆地壳运动变形的影响[J].西北地震学报,2005,27(1):1-7.
[9]江在森,杨国华,王敏,等.中国大陆地壳运动与强震关系研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2006,26(3):1-9.
[10]殷海涛,李杰,张玲,等.基于GPS观测网的山东地区地壳运动特征分析[J].西北地震学报,2008,30(3):276-281.
[11]Bennett R A,Wernicke B P,Niemi N A,et al.Contempora-ry strain rates in the northern basin and range province fromGPS data[J].Tectonics,2003,22(2):1008,doi:10.1029/2001TC001355.
[12]Mazzotti S,James T S,Henton J,et al.GPS crustal strain,postglacial rebound,and seismic hazard in eastern North A-merica:The Saint Lawrence valley example[J].J.Geophys.Res.,2005,110,B11301,doi:10.1029/2004JB003590.
[13]江在森,马宗晋,张希,等.GPS初步结果揭示的中国大陆水平应变场与构造变形[J].地球物理学报,2003,36(3):352-358.
[14]朱文耀,王小亚,符养,等.基于ITRF2000的全球板块运动模型和中国的地壳形变[J].地球物理学报,2002,45:197-204.
[15]符养,朱文耀,王小亚,等.利用中国地壳运动观测网络研究中国大陆相对于ITRF97板块模型形变[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(3):330-337.
[16]李建彪,甘卫军,冉永康,等.青藏高原东部构造块体的运动学及形变特征分析[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(2):97-103.
[17]马宗晋,陈鑫连,叶叔华,等.中国大陆现今地壳运动的GPS研究[J].科学通报,2001,46(13):1118-1120.
[18]Wang Q,Zhang P,Freymueller J,et al.Present-day crustaldeformation in China constrained by Global Positioning sys-tem measurements[J].Science,2001,294:574-577.
[19]Zhang P,Shen Z,Wang M,et al.Continuous deformation ofthe Tibetan Plateau from Global positioning system data[J].Geology,2004,32:809-812.
[20]Shen Z-K,J Lü,M Wang,et al.Contemporary crustal de-formation around the southeast borderland of the TibetanPlateau[J].J.Geophys.Res.,2005,110,B11409,doi:10.1029/2004JB003421.
[21]Sornette A,Sornette D.Earthquake rupture as a criticalpoint:Consequences for telluric precursors[J].Tectono-physics,1990,179:327-334.
[22]Sornette D,Sammis C G.Complex critical exponents fromrenormalization group theory of earthquakes:Implicationsfor earthquake predictions[J].J.Phys.I.France,1995,5:607-619.
[23]Sammis C G,Smith SW.Seismic cycles and the evolution ofstress correlation in cellular automation models of finite faultnetworks[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:307-334.
[24]Bowman D D,Ouillon G,Sammis C G,et al.An observa-tion test of the critical earthquake concept[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103(24):359-372.
[25]Knopoff L,Levshina T,Keilis-Borok V I,et al.Increasedlong range intermediate magnitude earthquake activity priorto strong earthquakes in California[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1996,101:5779-5796.
[26]Rundle J B,Klein W,Turcotte D L,et al.Precursory seis-mic activity and critical point phenomena[J].Pure Appl.Geo-phys.,2000,157:2,165-2,182.
[27]Jaume S C,Sykes L R.Evolution toward a critical point:Areview of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior tolarge great earthquakes[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:279-306.
[28]吴忠良.地震震源物理中的临界现象[M].北京:地震出版社,2000:1-284.
[29]Yin Xiang-chu,Chen Xue-zhong,Song Zhi-ping,et al.ANew Approach to Earthquake Prediction———The Load/Un-load Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].PAGEOPH,1995,145(3/4):701-715.
[30]Yin Xiang-chu,Wang Yu-cang,Peng Ke-yin,et al.Develop-ment of a New Approach to Earthquake Prediction———Load/unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157:2365-2383.
[31]Cochran E S,Vidale J E,Tanaka S.Earthquake tides cantrigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes[J].Science,2004,306:1164-1166.
[32]Tanaka S,Ohtake M,Sato H.Tidal triggering of earth-quakes in Japan related to the regional tectonic stress[J].Earth Planets Space,2004,56:511-515.
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