现今地震预警技术及其在国内发展状况的探讨
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摘要
本文首先从地震预警的概念、系统构成和技术方法等方面入手,对目前国际上地震预警技术的最新研究进展和热点问题进行了全面的论述。继而通过对国内发展现状的系统分析,认为地震预警系统的开展在政府、社会、台网建设和研究基础等方面都已经具备了基本的条件。结合当前国内的实际情况,对地震预警系统在实施过程中可能遇到的技术问题和非技术性挑战进行了估计,并建议加强法律措施、公众教育、震害防御等方面的配套工作,最大限度地发挥地震预警系统在防震减灾工作中的作用。
Earthquake Early Warning(EEW) comes into the sight of people as a result of unreliability of earthquake prediction.The paper illustrates comprehensively the research status and hot issues of EEW in terms of the concepts,compositions and methods.The study of the government status,social needs,network building and research foundations reveals that it is a right time to build EEW in Chinese Mainland.It also estimates the technical difficulties and non-technical challenges in the course of the implementation of EEW in China,and suggests the enhancement of legal measures,public education and seismic protections to bring the Earthquake Early Warning system into full play in earthquake relief.
Earthquake Early Warning(EEW) comes into the sight of people as a result of unreliability of earthquake prediction.The paper illustrates comprehensively the research status and hot issues of EEW in terms of the concepts,compositions and methods.The study of the government status,social needs,network building and research foundations reveals that it is a right time to build EEW in Chinese Mainland.It also estimates the technical difficulties and non-technical challenges in the course of the implementation of EEW in China,and suggests the enhancement of legal measures,public education and seismic protections to bring the Earthquake Early Warning system into full play in earthquake relief.
引文
[1]Http://www.real-time.jp/
[2]Http://www.china.com.cn/2011/2011-03/11/content_22114392.htm
陈运泰,2009,地震预测:回顾与展望,中国科学D辑:地球科学,39(12),1633～1658。
马宗晋,1993,中国重大自然灾害及减灾对策(总论),170～176,北京:科学出版社。
夏玉胜、杨丽萍,2000,地震预警(报)系统及减灾效益研究,西北地震学报,22(4),452～457。
张晓东、张国民,2004,关于地震预警的思考,国际地震动态,6,42～46。
张晓东、蒋海昆、黎明晓,2008,地震预测与预警探讨,中国地震,24(1),67～76。
Allen R M,Ziv A,2011,Application of real-time GPS to earthquake early warning,Geophys Res Lett,38,L16310,doi:10.1029/2011GL047947.
Bock Y,Diego M,Crowell B W,2011,Real-time strong-motion broadband displacements from collocated GPS and Accelerometers,Bull Seism Soc Am,101(6),2904～2925,doi:10.1785/0120110007.
Boore D M,Stephens C D,Joyner W B,2002,Comments on baseline correction of digital strong-motion data:examples from the1999Hector Mine,California earthquake.Bull Seism Soc Am,92(4),1543～1560,doi:10.17850120000926.
Brown H,Allen R M,Hellweg M,et al,2011,Development of the ElamS methodology for earthquake early warning:Realtimeapplication in California and offline testing in Japan,Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,31,188～200.
Cooper J D,1868,Earthquake indicator,San Francisco Bulletion.
Crowell B,Bock Y,Squibb M,2009,Demonstration of earthquake early warning using total displacement waveforms from real timeGPS networks,Seism Res Lett,80(5),772～782,doi:10.1785/gssrl.80.5.772.
Diego M,Bock Y,Crowell B W,2012,Real-time centroid moment tensor determination for large earthquakes from local and regionaldisplacement records,Geophys J Int,188,703～718,doi:10.1111/j1365-246X.2011.05297.x.
Geller R J,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y,et al,1997,Earthquake cannot be predicted,Science,275,1616～1617.
Hamada K,1991,Unpredictable earthquakes?Nature,353,611～612.
Shieh J T,Wu Y M,Allen R.M,2008,A comparison of tau-c and tau-p-max for magnitude estimation in earthquake early warning,Geophysical Research Letters,35,L20301.
Wyss M,1991,Evaluation of Proposed Earthquake Precursors,Washington DC:American Geophysical Union,94.
Yamada M,Heaton T,Beck J,2008,Real-time estimation of fault rupture extent using envelopes of acceleration,Bull Seism SocAm,98,607～619.
[2]Http://www.china.com.cn/2011/2011-03/11/content_22114392.htm
陈运泰,2009,地震预测:回顾与展望,中国科学D辑:地球科学,39(12),1633～1658。
马宗晋,1993,中国重大自然灾害及减灾对策(总论),170～176,北京:科学出版社。
夏玉胜、杨丽萍,2000,地震预警(报)系统及减灾效益研究,西北地震学报,22(4),452～457。
张晓东、张国民,2004,关于地震预警的思考,国际地震动态,6,42～46。
张晓东、蒋海昆、黎明晓,2008,地震预测与预警探讨,中国地震,24(1),67～76。
Allen R M,Ziv A,2011,Application of real-time GPS to earthquake early warning,Geophys Res Lett,38,L16310,doi:10.1029/2011GL047947.
Bock Y,Diego M,Crowell B W,2011,Real-time strong-motion broadband displacements from collocated GPS and Accelerometers,Bull Seism Soc Am,101(6),2904～2925,doi:10.1785/0120110007.
Boore D M,Stephens C D,Joyner W B,2002,Comments on baseline correction of digital strong-motion data:examples from the1999Hector Mine,California earthquake.Bull Seism Soc Am,92(4),1543～1560,doi:10.17850120000926.
Brown H,Allen R M,Hellweg M,et al,2011,Development of the ElamS methodology for earthquake early warning:Realtimeapplication in California and offline testing in Japan,Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering,31,188～200.
Cooper J D,1868,Earthquake indicator,San Francisco Bulletion.
Crowell B,Bock Y,Squibb M,2009,Demonstration of earthquake early warning using total displacement waveforms from real timeGPS networks,Seism Res Lett,80(5),772～782,doi:10.1785/gssrl.80.5.772.
Diego M,Bock Y,Crowell B W,2012,Real-time centroid moment tensor determination for large earthquakes from local and regionaldisplacement records,Geophys J Int,188,703～718,doi:10.1111/j1365-246X.2011.05297.x.
Geller R J,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y,et al,1997,Earthquake cannot be predicted,Science,275,1616～1617.
Hamada K,1991,Unpredictable earthquakes?Nature,353,611～612.
Shieh J T,Wu Y M,Allen R.M,2008,A comparison of tau-c and tau-p-max for magnitude estimation in earthquake early warning,Geophysical Research Letters,35,L20301.
Wyss M,1991,Evaluation of Proposed Earthquake Precursors,Washington DC:American Geophysical Union,94.
Yamada M,Heaton T,Beck J,2008,Real-time estimation of fault rupture extent using envelopes of acceleration,Bull Seism SocAm,98,607～619.
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