唐山地震地下水位动态图象及其预报意义
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摘要
采用水位滑动变差方法，研究了唐山地震前后地下水位时空演化特征。研究结果表明，水位滑动变差方法是突出地下水位前兆场时空演化特征的良好方法。唐山地震前后地下水位动态图像正负区和异常特征区的时空演化具有明显的规律性和阶段性。负值区的演化具有“收缩—扩展—急速扩展—发震”的特征；异常特征区的演化显示“迁移—扩展—稳定—发震—消失”的特征；滑动变差显示”增大—减小—发震—急速减小”的变化过程。据此给出了地震中短期预报新标志。
he characteristics of time-space evolution of groundwater level before and after Tangshan earthquake have been studied by sliding variation extent method. The results show that sliding variation extent method can be used to identify the anomaly changes of groundwater level. The positive and negative regions and anomaly characteristic region of sliding variation extent of groundwater level in Tangshan earthquake present distinct features of stage and regularity before and after the earthquake. The negative region shows the feature of “contraction - extension - rapid extension - earthquake-occurring". The anomaly characteristic region displays the feature of “migration - extension - stabilization - earthquake-occurring - disappearance". The sliding variation extent of groundwater level in the anomaly characteristic region presents the feature of “increase - decrease - earthquake-occurring - rapid decrease". Based on the features described above, a new index for medium-short term prediction has been suggested in the paper.
he characteristics of time-space evolution of groundwater level before and after Tangshan earthquake have been studied by sliding variation extent method. The results show that sliding variation extent method can be used to identify the anomaly changes of groundwater level. The positive and negative regions and anomaly characteristic region of sliding variation extent of groundwater level in Tangshan earthquake present distinct features of stage and regularity before and after the earthquake. The negative region shows the feature of “contraction - extension - rapid extension - earthquake-occurring". The anomaly characteristic region displays the feature of “migration - extension - stabilization - earthquake-occurring - disappearance". The sliding variation extent of groundwater level in the anomaly characteristic region presents the feature of “increase - decrease - earthquake-occurring - rapid decrease". Based on the features described above, a new index for medium-short term prediction has been suggested in the paper.
引文
〔1〕汪成民，李苑，赵曙等唐山地震前后深井水位变化特征地震地球化学文集，1978，50～179〔2〕吴锦秀等唐山地震地下水动态异常场特征与震源演化过程地震地质，1980，2（1）：65～78〔3〕贾化周，万迪，董守玉等唐山地震地下水位趋势异常分析地震，1982，（6）：2～5〔4〕郑熙铭，冯德益唐山78级地震前地下水位异常的模糊识别地震地质，1989，11（3）：1～8〔5〕车用太，鱼金子，黄振义等唐山地震地下水位前兆场的特征及其形成与演化模式地震，1994，4（增刊）：33～39〔6〕Scholz，C．H．，Sykes，L．R．，Aggarwal，Y．R．，1973．Earthquakeprediction：Apysicalbasis．Science，181：803～80〔7〕汪成民，车用太，万迪等地下水微动态研究北京：地震出版社，1988，142～148〔8〕汪成民地下水（气）异常变化见1966～1976年中国九大地震北京：地震出版社，1982，98～116
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