地震时序记录数据在强震前的关联特征
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摘要
对强震前的时序数据进行统计计算研究,发现若以特定地震带的时序数据为样本集,在强震前无标度区的跨度会相应地变长,反映出自组织程度的变化[1],以川滇地震带历史记录数据分析为例,若无标度区出现持续增长的征兆,则标志着地震活跃期的到来,同时可能伴有7级左右的地震,对于有的地震带关联维数出现变化不平缓的情况,也预示着地震活跃期的到来。但如果以地理区域划分如台湾省及全国的发震情况作为研究对象则无此规律。该结论在一定程度上可以提供一个强震发生中期预测的参考指标。
In this paper, the recording time series data of historical earthquakes occurred along the faults of Yunnan and Sichuan provinces, as well as the Taiwan region, are analyzed. If taking the sample set of earthquakes from a single seismic fault, the time interval of the non-scaled regime before a strong earthquake gets longer. This means that the degree of self-organization changes. Taking the earthquake series data from Yunnan and Sichuan seismic belts as the sample, the indictor of the non-scaled regime shows an increasing for a long time, then the active period of earthquakes comes and an M7 class event may occur. When the correlated dimensions for some of seismic belts changes unstably, an active period of earthquakes comes as well. But if taking whole geographical regions in the mainland of China or in Taiwan Province as our researching object, the correlated dimensions do not follow the situation mentioned above. So the parameter of the correlated dimensions can be used as an indicator for the earthquake forecast.
In this paper, the recording time series data of historical earthquakes occurred along the faults of Yunnan and Sichuan provinces, as well as the Taiwan region, are analyzed. If taking the sample set of earthquakes from a single seismic fault, the time interval of the non-scaled regime before a strong earthquake gets longer. This means that the degree of self-organization changes. Taking the earthquake series data from Yunnan and Sichuan seismic belts as the sample, the indictor of the non-scaled regime shows an increasing for a long time, then the active period of earthquakes comes and an M7 class event may occur. When the correlated dimensions for some of seismic belts changes unstably, an active period of earthquakes comes as well. But if taking whole geographical regions in the mainland of China or in Taiwan Province as our researching object, the correlated dimensions do not follow the situation mentioned above. So the parameter of the correlated dimensions can be used as an indicator for the earthquake forecast.
引文
[1] 徐叶邦 活动断裂带中地震分布时空结构的信息维D1特征初探[J] 地震学报,1991,13(3):372-379
[2] G·尼可里斯,I·普里高津 罗久里,陈奎宁译 探索复杂性[M] 成都:四川教育出版社,1992,335-342
[3] 吕金虎,陆君安,陈士华编著 混沌时间序列分析及其应用[M] 武汉:武汉大学出版社,2002,56-68
[4] 罗久里,H Haken 宏观协同学与地震记录中概率规律的提取[J] 大自然探索,1990,9(31):17
[2] G·尼可里斯,I·普里高津 罗久里,陈奎宁译 探索复杂性[M] 成都:四川教育出版社,1992,335-342
[3] 吕金虎,陆君安,陈士华编著 混沌时间序列分析及其应用[M] 武汉:武汉大学出版社,2002,56-68
[4] 罗久里,H Haken 宏观协同学与地震记录中概率规律的提取[J] 大自然探索,1990,9(31):17
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