岷县地震(M_S6.6)指纹法临震预测
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摘要
2013年7月22日7时45分,在甘肃定西市岷县和漳县交界处(34.5°N,104.2°E)发生了MS6.6级地震,震源深度20km,死亡95人,伤1 366人,经济损失达210亿元。文中回顾利用第一作者独创的指纹法对于此次地震做出临震预测的过程与依据,并探讨发震断裂与发震机制。利用SW地震前兆监测仪(简称SW仪),输出地磁分量、地电分量、地应力分量、谐振分量、地倾斜分量等9通道或15通道异常分量-时间曲线,当压缩时间轴,就可以输出不同的异常几何图像。不同地区的地震具有不同的前兆几何图像。相同地区的地震具有相同或相似的前兆几何图像。因此,可以根据特定前兆几何图像,找到将要发生地震的震中位置。这就相当于每个人都有特定指纹,根据指纹可以找到对应的人。所以,利用SW仪输出图像预测地震的方法称为指纹法。按照7年来对于前兆图像与对应指纹之间关系的观测,一般是提前6天收到临震指纹信号。震级预测则需要对于同通道指纹波幅进行比较与计算。于是,指纹法创造出单台站预测全球地震三要素的奇迹。作为专家内部交流,2013年7月15日10:45,根据2013年7月14日第五通道指纹与2013年6月2日同通道指纹的对比,文章第一作者预测2013年7月19日,甘肃(35.19°N,103.69°E)将发生MS5.1级地震。2013年7月22日定西市岷县MS6.6级地震表明,预测震中准确,发震时间比预测时间仅仅延迟3天,震级比预测值大1.5级,总体上是一次成功的临震预测。构造背景、地壳结构和震源机制研究认为,临潭—礼县左行逆冲活动断裂是定西岷县地震的发震断裂。中地壳低速(高导)层尖端与临潭—礼县左行逆冲断裂接合部位是流变界面能量释放的震源位置,为板内地震三层次构造模式提供了一个新的案例。
At 7:45 of July 22,2013,an earthquake occurred at the border between Minxian and Zhangxian of Dingxi City(34.5°N,104.2°E),Gansu Province with magnitude of MS6.6.The depth of the focus is 20km.In this disaster,95people died,1366people were injured,and the total economic loss reaches 21billion Yuan RMB.We review the imminent prediction process and basis for the earthquake using the fingerprint method created by the first author.We also discuss the triggering structure and the seismic mechanism of the earthquake.Nine channels or 15channels of anomalous components-time curves can be output from the SW monitor for earthquake precursors(or simply SW monitor for short).These components include geomagnetic,geoelectric,crust stresses,resonance,and crust inclination components.When we compress the time axis,the output curves become different geometric images.The precursor images are different for earthquake in different regions.The alike or similar images correspond to earthquakes in a certain region.In this way,we can predict the location for a coming earthquake using the precursor images.This can be analogous to a person's definite fingerprint.We can find a person with a fingerprint.Therefore,the method predicting earthquake by using the precursor images is called fingerprint method.According to the 7-year observation of the precursor images and their corresponding earthquakes,we usually get the fingerprint 6days before the corresponding earthquake.The magnitude prediction needs the comparison between the amplitudes of the fingerprints from the same channel.In this way,the fingerprint works a miracle that we can predict the three key elements of earthquake using single station data.At 10:45of July 15,2013,the first author predicted that there would be an earthquake occurring on July 19,2013,in Gansu(35.19°N,103.69°E)with the magnitude of MS5.1on the basis of the comparison between the fingerprints from the channel 5on July 14,and on June2,2013.The Minxian MS6.6earthquake occurred on July 22,2013indicates that the predicted epicenter is accurate,that the earthquake occurring time is delayed only 3days,and that the magnitude is larger than the predicted magnitude by MS1.5.In general,it is a successful imminent prediction.From the comprehensive analysis of the tectonic setting,the crust P wave velocity structures and the focus mechanism of the Minxianearthquake,we consider that the Lintan-Lixian left-lateral thrusting is its triggering and that the joint location of the edge of the low-velocity(high-conductivity)layer and the Lintan-Lixian fractures is the location for the focus to release the accumulated energy.This provides a new case of the three-level tectonic model for intraplate earthquake.
At 7:45 of July 22,2013,an earthquake occurred at the border between Minxian and Zhangxian of Dingxi City(34.5°N,104.2°E),Gansu Province with magnitude of MS6.6.The depth of the focus is 20km.In this disaster,95people died,1366people were injured,and the total economic loss reaches 21billion Yuan RMB.We review the imminent prediction process and basis for the earthquake using the fingerprint method created by the first author.We also discuss the triggering structure and the seismic mechanism of the earthquake.Nine channels or 15channels of anomalous components-time curves can be output from the SW monitor for earthquake precursors(or simply SW monitor for short).These components include geomagnetic,geoelectric,crust stresses,resonance,and crust inclination components.When we compress the time axis,the output curves become different geometric images.The precursor images are different for earthquake in different regions.The alike or similar images correspond to earthquakes in a certain region.In this way,we can predict the location for a coming earthquake using the precursor images.This can be analogous to a person's definite fingerprint.We can find a person with a fingerprint.Therefore,the method predicting earthquake by using the precursor images is called fingerprint method.According to the 7-year observation of the precursor images and their corresponding earthquakes,we usually get the fingerprint 6days before the corresponding earthquake.The magnitude prediction needs the comparison between the amplitudes of the fingerprints from the same channel.In this way,the fingerprint works a miracle that we can predict the three key elements of earthquake using single station data.At 10:45of July 15,2013,the first author predicted that there would be an earthquake occurring on July 19,2013,in Gansu(35.19°N,103.69°E)with the magnitude of MS5.1on the basis of the comparison between the fingerprints from the channel 5on July 14,and on June2,2013.The Minxian MS6.6earthquake occurred on July 22,2013indicates that the predicted epicenter is accurate,that the earthquake occurring time is delayed only 3days,and that the magnitude is larger than the predicted magnitude by MS1.5.In general,it is a successful imminent prediction.From the comprehensive analysis of the tectonic setting,the crust P wave velocity structures and the focus mechanism of the Minxianearthquake,we consider that the Lintan-Lixian left-lateral thrusting is its triggering and that the joint location of the edge of the low-velocity(high-conductivity)layer and the Lintan-Lixian fractures is the location for the focus to release the accumulated energy.This provides a new case of the three-level tectonic model for intraplate earthquake.
引文
[1]曾佐勋,王杰.芦山地震:一次成功的中期预测[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):21-24.
[2]费琪.汶川大地震的深部构造特征[J].工程地球物理学报,2008,5(4):387-395.
[3]费琪.壳幔物质流变的底辟作用孕育大地震:卫星重力资料的证据[J].地学前缘,2009,16(3):282-293.
[4]强祖基,马蔼乃,曾佐勋,等.卫星热红外地震短临预测方法研究[J].地学前缘,2010,17(5):254-262.
[5]强祖基,孔令昌,郭满红,等.卫星热红外增温机制的实验研究[J].地震学报,1997,19(2):87-91.
[6]徐秀登,徐宝华.芦山地震的红外增温异常分析[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):25-28.
[7]徐秀登,徐向民,强祖基.红外临震异常的基本特征与成因机理再认识[J].浙江师范大学报:自然科学版,1994,17(3):43-47.
[8]曾佐勋,Sibgatulin V G,宋松,等.尼玛地震(MS5.2)临震预测和流变构造[J].地学前缘,2013,20(6):149-155.
[9]李均之,白志强,陈维升,等.昆仑山口西MS8.1级地震前兆简介[J].地学前缘,2003,10(4):428.
[10]吕君,郭泉,冯浩楠,等.北京地震前的异常次声波[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(10):3379-3385.
[11]潘黎黎,曾佐勋,王杰.芦山地震(MS7.0)及玉树地震(MS5.2)震前次声波异常信号分析[J].地学前缘,2013,20(6):73-79.
[12]王杰,张雄,潘黎黎,等.芦山地震(MS7.0)前甲烷释放与大气增温异常[J].地学前缘,2013,20(6):29-35.
[13]姚清林,强祖基,王弋平.青藏高原地震前CO的排放与卫星热红外增温异常[J].地球科学进展,2005,20(5):505-510.
[14]吕大炯,高建国,孙士鋐,等.地震云及其成因的探讨[J].自然杂志,1978,1(5):279-280.
[15]吕大炯.地震云观测[J].科学通报,1981(3):69-71.
[16]Shou Z H.Precursor of the largest earthquake in the last 40years[J].New Concepts in Global Tectonics,2006,41(4):6-15.
[17]Harrington D,Shou Z H.Bam earthquake prediction&space technology[J].Seminars of the United Nations Programme on Space Applications,2005,16:39-63.
[18]Shou Z H,Xia J J,Shou W Y.Using the earthquake vapor theory to explain the French airbus crash[J].Remote Sensing Letter,2010,1(2):85-94.
[19]耿庆国.旱震关系与大地震中期预报[J].中国科学:B辑,1984(7):658-667.
[20]任纪舜,姜春发,张正坤.中国大地构造及其演化[M].北京:科学出版社,1980.
[21]李春昱.中国板块构造的轮廓[J].中国地质科学院院报,1980,2(1):11-19,130.
[22]冯益民,曹宣铎,张二朋,等.西秦岭造山带的演化、构造格局和性质[J].西北地质,2003,36(1):1-10.
[23]郭进京,韩文峰,李雪峰.西秦岭新生代以来地质构造过程对青藏高原隆升和变形的约束[J].地学前缘,2009,16(6):215-225.
[24]曾佐勋,杨巍然,Neubauer F.造山带挤出构造[J].地质科技情报,2001,20(1):1-7.
[25]王二七,孟庆任,陈智樑,等.龙门山断裂带印支期左旋走滑运动及其大地构造成因[J].地学前缘,2001,8(2):375-384.
[26]郭进京,韩文峰,李雪峰.西秦岭断裂构造格架和活动特征对地质灾害的控制作用分析[J].地质调查与研究,2009,32(4):241-248.
[27]康来迅.西秦岭北缘断裂带晚更新世晚期以来断裂运动的基本特征及运动机理[J].中国地震,1990,6(3):55-63.
[28]邵延秀,袁道阳,王爱国,等.西秦岭北缘断裂破裂分段与地震危险性评估[J].地震地质,2011,33(1):79-90.
[29]王志才,张培震,张广良,等.西秦岭北缘构造带的新生代构造活动:兼论对青藏高原东北缘形成过程的指示意义[J].地学前缘,2006,13(4):119-135.
[30]姜晓玮,王江海,张会化.西秦岭断裂走滑与盆地的耦合:西秦岭—松甘块体新生代向东走滑挤出的证据[J].地学前缘,2003,10(3):201-208.
[31]赵振燊.甘东南地震重点危险区主要活动断裂带断层气地球化学特征[D].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所,2012.
[32]丁燕云,李占奎.武都—文县—理县一线地球物理场界线的发现及意义[J].中国地质,2009,36(6):1251-1256.
[33]何文贵,袁道阳,熊振,等.东昆仑断裂带东段玛曲断裂新活动特征及全新世滑动速率研究[J].地震,2006,26(4):67-75.
[34]马寅生,施炜,张岳桥,等.东昆仑活动断裂带玛曲段活动特征及其东延[J].地质通报,2005,24(1):30-35.
[35]杨巍然,曾佐勋,李德威,等.板内地震过程的三层次构造模式[J].地学前缘,2009,16(1):206-217.
[36]韦伟,孙若昧,石耀霖.青藏高原东南缘地震层析成像及汶川地震成因探讨[J].中国科学:D辑,2010,40(7):831-839.
[37]李德威.东昆仑、玉树、汶川地震的发生规律和形成机理:兼论大陆地震成因与预测[J].地学前缘,2010,17(5):179-192.
[38]张乐天,金胜,魏文博,等.青藏高原东缘及四川盆地的壳幔导电性结构研究[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(12):4126-4137.
[39]李清河,郭建康,周民都,等.成县—西吉剖面地壳速度结构[J].西北地震学报,1991,13(增刊):37-43.
①CMT网址:http:∥www.globalcmt.org
①CMT网址:http:∥www.globalcmt.org
①据欧洲及地中海地震中心.http:∥www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/alert/?id=ODT57;LDG&date=2013-06-07
①据中国地震台网.http:∥www.ceic.ac.cn/
[2]费琪.汶川大地震的深部构造特征[J].工程地球物理学报,2008,5(4):387-395.
[3]费琪.壳幔物质流变的底辟作用孕育大地震:卫星重力资料的证据[J].地学前缘,2009,16(3):282-293.
[4]强祖基,马蔼乃,曾佐勋,等.卫星热红外地震短临预测方法研究[J].地学前缘,2010,17(5):254-262.
[5]强祖基,孔令昌,郭满红,等.卫星热红外增温机制的实验研究[J].地震学报,1997,19(2):87-91.
[6]徐秀登,徐宝华.芦山地震的红外增温异常分析[J].地学前缘,2013,20(3):25-28.
[7]徐秀登,徐向民,强祖基.红外临震异常的基本特征与成因机理再认识[J].浙江师范大学报:自然科学版,1994,17(3):43-47.
[8]曾佐勋,Sibgatulin V G,宋松,等.尼玛地震(MS5.2)临震预测和流变构造[J].地学前缘,2013,20(6):149-155.
[9]李均之,白志强,陈维升,等.昆仑山口西MS8.1级地震前兆简介[J].地学前缘,2003,10(4):428.
[10]吕君,郭泉,冯浩楠,等.北京地震前的异常次声波[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(10):3379-3385.
[11]潘黎黎,曾佐勋,王杰.芦山地震(MS7.0)及玉树地震(MS5.2)震前次声波异常信号分析[J].地学前缘,2013,20(6):73-79.
[12]王杰,张雄,潘黎黎,等.芦山地震(MS7.0)前甲烷释放与大气增温异常[J].地学前缘,2013,20(6):29-35.
[13]姚清林,强祖基,王弋平.青藏高原地震前CO的排放与卫星热红外增温异常[J].地球科学进展,2005,20(5):505-510.
[14]吕大炯,高建国,孙士鋐,等.地震云及其成因的探讨[J].自然杂志,1978,1(5):279-280.
[15]吕大炯.地震云观测[J].科学通报,1981(3):69-71.
[16]Shou Z H.Precursor of the largest earthquake in the last 40years[J].New Concepts in Global Tectonics,2006,41(4):6-15.
[17]Harrington D,Shou Z H.Bam earthquake prediction&space technology[J].Seminars of the United Nations Programme on Space Applications,2005,16:39-63.
[18]Shou Z H,Xia J J,Shou W Y.Using the earthquake vapor theory to explain the French airbus crash[J].Remote Sensing Letter,2010,1(2):85-94.
[19]耿庆国.旱震关系与大地震中期预报[J].中国科学:B辑,1984(7):658-667.
[20]任纪舜,姜春发,张正坤.中国大地构造及其演化[M].北京:科学出版社,1980.
[21]李春昱.中国板块构造的轮廓[J].中国地质科学院院报,1980,2(1):11-19,130.
[22]冯益民,曹宣铎,张二朋,等.西秦岭造山带的演化、构造格局和性质[J].西北地质,2003,36(1):1-10.
[23]郭进京,韩文峰,李雪峰.西秦岭新生代以来地质构造过程对青藏高原隆升和变形的约束[J].地学前缘,2009,16(6):215-225.
[24]曾佐勋,杨巍然,Neubauer F.造山带挤出构造[J].地质科技情报,2001,20(1):1-7.
[25]王二七,孟庆任,陈智樑,等.龙门山断裂带印支期左旋走滑运动及其大地构造成因[J].地学前缘,2001,8(2):375-384.
[26]郭进京,韩文峰,李雪峰.西秦岭断裂构造格架和活动特征对地质灾害的控制作用分析[J].地质调查与研究,2009,32(4):241-248.
[27]康来迅.西秦岭北缘断裂带晚更新世晚期以来断裂运动的基本特征及运动机理[J].中国地震,1990,6(3):55-63.
[28]邵延秀,袁道阳,王爱国,等.西秦岭北缘断裂破裂分段与地震危险性评估[J].地震地质,2011,33(1):79-90.
[29]王志才,张培震,张广良,等.西秦岭北缘构造带的新生代构造活动:兼论对青藏高原东北缘形成过程的指示意义[J].地学前缘,2006,13(4):119-135.
[30]姜晓玮,王江海,张会化.西秦岭断裂走滑与盆地的耦合:西秦岭—松甘块体新生代向东走滑挤出的证据[J].地学前缘,2003,10(3):201-208.
[31]赵振燊.甘东南地震重点危险区主要活动断裂带断层气地球化学特征[D].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所,2012.
[32]丁燕云,李占奎.武都—文县—理县一线地球物理场界线的发现及意义[J].中国地质,2009,36(6):1251-1256.
[33]何文贵,袁道阳,熊振,等.东昆仑断裂带东段玛曲断裂新活动特征及全新世滑动速率研究[J].地震,2006,26(4):67-75.
[34]马寅生,施炜,张岳桥,等.东昆仑活动断裂带玛曲段活动特征及其东延[J].地质通报,2005,24(1):30-35.
[35]杨巍然,曾佐勋,李德威,等.板内地震过程的三层次构造模式[J].地学前缘,2009,16(1):206-217.
[36]韦伟,孙若昧,石耀霖.青藏高原东南缘地震层析成像及汶川地震成因探讨[J].中国科学:D辑,2010,40(7):831-839.
[37]李德威.东昆仑、玉树、汶川地震的发生规律和形成机理:兼论大陆地震成因与预测[J].地学前缘,2010,17(5):179-192.
[38]张乐天,金胜,魏文博,等.青藏高原东缘及四川盆地的壳幔导电性结构研究[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(12):4126-4137.
[39]李清河,郭建康,周民都,等.成县—西吉剖面地壳速度结构[J].西北地震学报,1991,13(增刊):37-43.
①CMT网址:http:∥www.globalcmt.org
①CMT网址:http:∥www.globalcmt.org
①据欧洲及地中海地震中心.http:∥www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/alert/?id=ODT57;LDG&date=2013-06-07
①据中国地震台网.http:∥www.ceic.ac.cn/
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