地震非均匀度在甘肃及邻区中强地震中短期预报中的应用
|
摘要
在地震学中长期预报的基础上 ,近几年地震学攻关指南的应用实践中发现 ,刻画强震前中小地震活动在时空分布上不均匀性的参量——地震非均匀度 ( GL值 )能较好地反映震前小震活动由稳定向非稳定过渡的中短期震兆特点。结合甘肃及邻区中强以上地震的预报研究 ,运用 GL值进行时空扫描 ,结果发现除个别省界边缘地区地震外 ,所有 5 .4级以上地震前 1～ 2 a,在震中 30 0 km范围内 ,2 .0级以上小震活动在不同时段均显示出明显的非均匀特性—— GL≥1 .0
Through study and application of “Guide to Earthquake Prediction by the Seismological Method”, based on the practice of long and medium term earthquake prediction in recent years, the authors discovered that the inhomogeneous degree of seismicity (GL value) is a useful parameter for describing the temporal and spatial inhomogeneous distribution of small and moderate earthquakes prior to the strong ones. It can reflect the characteristics of earthquake precursors in short medium term, that is, the activity of small earthquakes changes from both stable and unstable statuses before a moderate or strong earthquake. Synthesizing the study of the moderate and strong earthquake predictions in Gansu and its neighbouring area, and applying GL value in time and space scanning of earthquakes occurred in the study region, it is found that one or two years before occurrence of all moderate and strong earthquakes (M S ≥5.4) except a few events, the activity of small earthquakes (M S ≥2.0) shows obviously the inhomogeneous feature of seismicity (GL≥1.0), 300 km from the epicenters during different periods.
Through study and application of “Guide to Earthquake Prediction by the Seismological Method”, based on the practice of long and medium term earthquake prediction in recent years, the authors discovered that the inhomogeneous degree of seismicity (GL value) is a useful parameter for describing the temporal and spatial inhomogeneous distribution of small and moderate earthquakes prior to the strong ones. It can reflect the characteristics of earthquake precursors in short medium term, that is, the activity of small earthquakes changes from both stable and unstable statuses before a moderate or strong earthquake. Synthesizing the study of the moderate and strong earthquake predictions in Gansu and its neighbouring area, and applying GL value in time and space scanning of earthquakes occurred in the study region, it is found that one or two years before occurrence of all moderate and strong earthquakes (M S ≥5.4) except a few events, the activity of small earthquakes (M S ≥2.0) shows obviously the inhomogeneous feature of seismicity (GL≥1.0), 300 km from the epicenters during different periods.
引文
1 李志雄,高旭.地震非均匀度的研究及在强震中期预报中的应用.地震,1994,6(6):11～18.
2 陈,于小红.岩石样品变形时的声发射.地球物理学报,1984,27(4):392～401.
3 陈.地壳岩石的力学性能:理论基础与实验方法.北京:地震出版社,1989.
4 秦保燕,张晓东,王裕仓,等.震源系统小震调制比( rm)和异常面积(Srm)起伏加剧的时空特征与强震的中、短期预报.西北地震学报,1994,16(3):1～10.
2 陈,于小红.岩石样品变形时的声发射.地球物理学报,1984,27(4):392～401.
3 陈.地壳岩石的力学性能:理论基础与实验方法.北京:地震出版社,1989.
4 秦保燕,张晓东,王裕仓,等.震源系统小震调制比( rm)和异常面积(Srm)起伏加剧的时空特征与强震的中、短期预报.西北地震学报,1994,16(3):1～10.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心