青藏高原块体运动模型与地震活动主体地区讨论:鲁甸和景谷地震的启示
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摘要
利用现有的活动断层资料和GPS监测数据等,按照活动块体的基本定义,假定块体的运动近似于刚性块体模型,对青藏高原的活动块体进行了一、二级划分,给出了具有运动学属性的块体运动学模型,通过对10多年来青藏高原系列地震,包括2014年鲁甸和景谷地震与块体运动之间关系的分析,讨论了未来地表破裂型地震活动的主体地区,指出巴颜喀拉和羌塘等块体的主控边界断裂是青藏高原最新1期地震活动的2个主体地区,鲜水河断裂东南段、安宁河断裂、大凉山断裂、小江断裂南段和红河断裂中南段,以及东昆仑断裂玛沁—玛曲段是最新活跃期内可能再次发生7级左右地表破裂型地震的地点;对地表破裂型地震的异常监测应关注块体边界不同构造部位的应变状态差异及其相关物理量的变化特征。
By use of existing active faults,GPS monitoring data and other information and supposing a block-like motion,the Tibetan Plateau can be divided into multiple first-order and second-order blocks in accordance with basic definition of active block,and the block kinematic model with slip vector is given. Then by analysis of the relationship between the earthquake series,including the2014 Ludian and Jinggu earthquakes,occurring in the Tibetan Plateau in the past more than a decade and the block motion,the themed areas for future surface rupturing earthquakes are determined to be related to the eastward or southeastward motion of the Bayan Har and Qiangtang blocks. The risk fault segments for the future earthquakes may include the southeastern segment of the Xianshuihe Fault,the Anninghe Fault, the Daliangshan Fault, the southern segment of the Xiaojiang Fault and the southeastern segment of the Red River Fault as well as the Maqin-Maqu segment of the eastern Kunlun Fault. In the earthquake monitoring and prediction tests,attention should be paid to the different structural strain patterns around the specific block boundary faults.
By use of existing active faults,GPS monitoring data and other information and supposing a block-like motion,the Tibetan Plateau can be divided into multiple first-order and second-order blocks in accordance with basic definition of active block,and the block kinematic model with slip vector is given. Then by analysis of the relationship between the earthquake series,including the2014 Ludian and Jinggu earthquakes,occurring in the Tibetan Plateau in the past more than a decade and the block motion,the themed areas for future surface rupturing earthquakes are determined to be related to the eastward or southeastward motion of the Bayan Har and Qiangtang blocks. The risk fault segments for the future earthquakes may include the southeastern segment of the Xianshuihe Fault,the Anninghe Fault, the Daliangshan Fault, the southern segment of the Xiaojiang Fault and the southeastern segment of the Red River Fault as well as the Maqin-Maqu segment of the eastern Kunlun Fault. In the earthquake monitoring and prediction tests,attention should be paid to the different structural strain patterns around the specific block boundary faults.
引文
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