多方法联合分析未来地震发生趋势
|
摘要
综合多种前兆方法分析地震活动规律,研究目标地区未来地震发生的趋势。首先采用图像信息法(PI)进行扫描,从长期尺度上找出研究区域内地震活动异常的地区,并结合相关的活动断裂分布及区域地震活动确定未来地震的发震危险区;然后采用加卸载响应比(LURR)、态矢量(SV)、矩张量加速释放(AMR)等中短期前兆方法分析这些区域的地震发生可能,并对地震发生的相关信息做进一步估算;在空间上实现向地震危险区域的逐渐逼近,时间上实现从长期预测到中短期预测的自然过渡。作为回顾性震例研究,我们对近3年来发生在中国西部的强震(ML>6.5)进行了检验,结果表明,相对于单一算法而言,将不同前兆方法适当组合结合能够更为明确地为未来地震危险性评估提供信息和约束。
Several earthquake precursory methods are combined to investigate the future large earthquake potential in the research region.First the Pattern Informatics(PI) method is used to quantify localized changes surrounding the epicenters of large earthquakes and to objectively quantify the anomalous areas(hot spots) of the upcoming events.Then the seismogenic regions of the ensuing large events are delineated by integrating with associated active fault zones.Finally,the earthquake potential in the region is evaluated using 3 other short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction methods(Load Unload Response Ratio,State Vector,and Accelerate Moment Release).In the spatial scale the approach can achieve the gradual approximation to the seismogenic zones;while in the temporal scale,the approach can achieve the natural transition from the long term to the short-to-intermediate-term earthquake forecast.As a retrospective study,the large earthquakes(ML>6.5) occurred in western China in last 3 years are examined.The results may suggest that,rather than a single precursory method,the multi-methods combined approach can be a useful tool to provide stronger constraints on forecasts of future large events.
Several earthquake precursory methods are combined to investigate the future large earthquake potential in the research region.First the Pattern Informatics(PI) method is used to quantify localized changes surrounding the epicenters of large earthquakes and to objectively quantify the anomalous areas(hot spots) of the upcoming events.Then the seismogenic regions of the ensuing large events are delineated by integrating with associated active fault zones.Finally,the earthquake potential in the region is evaluated using 3 other short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction methods(Load Unload Response Ratio,State Vector,and Accelerate Moment Release).In the spatial scale the approach can achieve the gradual approximation to the seismogenic zones;while in the temporal scale,the approach can achieve the natural transition from the long term to the short-to-intermediate-term earthquake forecast.As a retrospective study,the large earthquakes(ML>6.5) occurred in western China in last 3 years are examined.The results may suggest that,rather than a single precursory method,the multi-methods combined approach can be a useful tool to provide stronger constraints on forecasts of future large events.
引文
[1]Burridge R,Knopoff L.Model and theoretical Seismicity[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1967,57:34-371.
[2]Cao T,Aki K.Seismicity simulation with a Mass-spring Mod-el and a displacement hardening-softening friction law[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1984,122:10-24.
[3]Carlson J M,Langer J S.Mechanical Model of an EarthquakeFault[J].Phys.Rev.,1984,A40:6470-6484.
[4]Ben-Zion Y,Sammis C G.Characterization of fault zones[J].Pure app1.Geophys.,2003,160:677-715.
[5]Ben-Zion Y,Lyakhovsky V.Accelerated seismic release andrelated aspects of seismicty patterns on earthquake faults[J].Pure app1.Geophys.,2002,159:2385-2412.
[6]Main 1G.Earthqu akes as critical phenomena,implicationsfor probab ilistic seismic hazard an alysis[J].Bull.Seism.See.Amer.,1995,85:l299-l308.
[7]Main 1G.Statitical physics,seismogenesis,and seismic haz-ard[J].Rev.Geophys.,1996,34:433-462.
[8]Main 1G,AI-Kindy F H.Entropy,energy,and proximityto criticality in global earthqu ake populations[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2002,29(7):doi:10.1029/2001GL014078.
[9]Keilis-Borok V I.The lithosphere of the Earth as a nonlinearsystem with implications for earthquak e prediction[J].Rev.Geophys.,1990,28:19-34.
[10]Romachkova L L,Kossobokov V G,Panza G F,et al.Inter-mediate-term predictions of earthqu ak es in Italy,AlgorithmM8[J].Pure appl.Geophys.,1998,152:37-55.
[11]Keilis-Borok V I,Shebalin P N.Special Issue-Dynamics ofLithosphere and Earthquake Prediction[J].Phys.EarthPlanet.Inter.,1999,111:179-327.
[12]Keilis-Borok V,Ismail-Zadeh A,Kossobekov V,et al.Non-linear dynamics of the lithosphere and intermediateterm earthquake prediction[J].Tectonophysics,2001,338:247-260.
[13]Sammis C G,Smith S W.Seismic Cycles and the Evolution ofstess Correlation in Cellular Automation Models of FiniteFault Networks[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:307-334.
[14]Bowman D D,King G C P.Accelerating seismicity and stressaccumulation before large earthquakes[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2001,28(21):4039-4042.
[15]Smith S W,Sammis C G.Revisiting the Tidal Activation ofSeismicity with a Damage Mechanics and Friction Point ofView[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2004,161:2393-2404.
[16]Rundle J B,lein W,Tiampo K,et al.Linear pattern dynam-ics in nonlinear threshold systems[J].Phys.Rev.,2000,E61:2418-2431.
[17]Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,Klein W,et al.Self-organization inleaky threshold systems:The influence of near-mean field dy-namics and its implications for earthquakes,neuro-biology,and forecasting[J].Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.USA,2002,99:2514-2521.
[18]Rundle J B,D L Turcotte,R Shcherbakov,et al.Statisticalphysics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics ofearthquake fault systems[J].Rev.Geophys.,2003,41(4):1019,doi:10.1029/2003RG000135.
[19]Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,McGinnis S A,et al.Pattern dy-namics and forecast methods in seismically active regions[J].Pure and applied geophysics,2002,159(10):2429-2467.
[20]King G C P,Cocco M.Fault interaction by elastic stresschanges:New clues from earthquake sequences[J].adv.Geophys.,2001,44:1-38.
[21]Yu H Z,Shen Z K,Zhu Q Y,et al.Increasing critical sensi-tivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earth-quakes with identified stress accumulation pattern[J].Tec-tonophysics,2006,428(1-4):87-94.
[22]Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,et al.Load-Unload ResponseRatio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release critical re-gion scaling and earthquake prediction[J].Pure Appl.Geo-phys.,2002,159:2511-2523.
[23]Yin X C,Yu H Z,Kukshenko V,et al.Load-Unload Re-sponse ratio(LURR),Accelerating Energy release(AER)and State Vector evolution as precursors to failure of rockspecimens.[J]Pure Appl.Geophys.,2004,161:2405-2436.
[24]Holliday J R,Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,et al.Systematic pro-cedural and sensitivity analysis of the Pattern Informaticsmethod for forecasting large(M>5)earthquake events inSouthern California[J].Pure And Applied Geophysics,2005,163(11-12):2433-2454.
[25]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,et al.A New Approach toEarthquake Prediction———The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1995,145:701-715.
[26]Yin X C,Wang Y C,Peng K Y,et al.Development of aNew Approach to Earthquake Prediction———Load/unloadResponse Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157:2365-2383.
[27]Yin X C,Zhang L P,Zhang H H,et al.LURR's TwentyYears and its Perspective[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2006,163:2317-2341.
[28]杨林章,何世海,郗饮文,等.用潮汐体应变加响比研究岩石弹性性质变化[J].中国地震,1994,10(增刊):90-94.
[29]李旭东.倾斜固体潮的响应比研究[J].地壳形变与地震,1995,15(3):67-73.
[30]陈棋福,尹祥础,马丽.加卸载响应比的自然分布[J].中国地震,1996,12:270-273.
[31]曾小苹,续春荣,赵明,等.地球磁场对太阳风的加卸载响应与地震[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1996,17(1):49-53.
[32]李佐唐.门源6.4级地前后加卸载响应比的异常变化[J].西北地震学报,1997,18(4):47-50.
[33]王勤彩,杜锡武,马兴国,等.大同两次中强地前应变、倾加卸载响应比异常研究[J].华北地震科学,1997,15(3):67-72.
[34]续春荣,林云芳,吕桂芳,等.地球磁场对太阳风的加卸载响应比与川滇中强地震[J].中国地震,1998,14(2):190-196.
[35]张昭栋,王秀芹,董守德.加卸载响应比在体应变固体潮中的应用[J].地震,1999,19:217-222.
[36]常克贵,高立新,张建业,等.加卸载响应比理论在包头西MS6.4地震预报中的应用[J].西北地震学报,1999,21(4):350-355.
[37]任隽,陈运平,潘纪顺,等.海南岛及其近海中强地震前加卸载响应比的变化特征[J].西北地震学报,2002,27(1):71-74.
[38]Zhang Y X,Yin X C,Peng K Y.Spatial and Temporal Vari-ation of LURR and its Implication for the Tendency of Earth-quake Occurrence in Southern California[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2004,161:2359-2367.
[39]Cochran E S,Vidale J E,Tanaka S.Earthquake tides cantrigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes[J].Science,2004,306:1164-1166.
[40]Tanaka S,Ohtake M,Sato H.Tidal triggering of earth-quakes in Japan related to the regional tectonic stress[J].Earth Planets Space,2004,56(5):511-515.
[41]尹祥础,余怀忠,等.态矢量—分析地震活动性的一种新方法[J].中国地震,2004,20(1):73-79.
[42]Yu H Z,Yin X C,Zhu Q Y,et al.State vector—a new ap-proach to prediction of the failure of brittle heterogeneousmedia and large earthquakes[J].Pure appl.geophys.,2006,153(11/12):2561-2574.
[43]Zhang Y X,Wu Y J,Yin X C,et al.Comparison BetweenLURR and State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakesin Southern California Since 1980[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2008,165:737-748.
[44]姜彤,王伟,崔江利,等.滑坡临滑预报的态矢量方法研究[J].岩土力学,2009,30(6):1747-1752.
[45]黄显良,陈宇卫,沈小七,等.华东地区态矢量的研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2006,27(5):3-7.
[46]余怀忠,尹祥础,等.态矢量方法的实验研究[J].地震,2004,24(3):1-7.
[47]吴永加,张永仙,尹祥础.1970年以来中国大陆25次6.8级以上地震前态矢量异常特征研究[J].地震,2006,26(2):61-67.
[48]Jaume S C,Sykes L R.Evolution toward a critical point:areview of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior tolarge great earthquakes[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:279-306.
[49]Bufe C G,D J Varnes.Predictive modelling of the seismic cy-cle of the greater San Francisco bay region[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9871-9883.
[50]邓起东.中国活动构造图(1:400万)[M].北京:地震出版社,2007:1-5.
[2]Cao T,Aki K.Seismicity simulation with a Mass-spring Mod-el and a displacement hardening-softening friction law[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1984,122:10-24.
[3]Carlson J M,Langer J S.Mechanical Model of an EarthquakeFault[J].Phys.Rev.,1984,A40:6470-6484.
[4]Ben-Zion Y,Sammis C G.Characterization of fault zones[J].Pure app1.Geophys.,2003,160:677-715.
[5]Ben-Zion Y,Lyakhovsky V.Accelerated seismic release andrelated aspects of seismicty patterns on earthquake faults[J].Pure app1.Geophys.,2002,159:2385-2412.
[6]Main 1G.Earthqu akes as critical phenomena,implicationsfor probab ilistic seismic hazard an alysis[J].Bull.Seism.See.Amer.,1995,85:l299-l308.
[7]Main 1G.Statitical physics,seismogenesis,and seismic haz-ard[J].Rev.Geophys.,1996,34:433-462.
[8]Main 1G,AI-Kindy F H.Entropy,energy,and proximityto criticality in global earthqu ake populations[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2002,29(7):doi:10.1029/2001GL014078.
[9]Keilis-Borok V I.The lithosphere of the Earth as a nonlinearsystem with implications for earthquak e prediction[J].Rev.Geophys.,1990,28:19-34.
[10]Romachkova L L,Kossobokov V G,Panza G F,et al.Inter-mediate-term predictions of earthqu ak es in Italy,AlgorithmM8[J].Pure appl.Geophys.,1998,152:37-55.
[11]Keilis-Borok V I,Shebalin P N.Special Issue-Dynamics ofLithosphere and Earthquake Prediction[J].Phys.EarthPlanet.Inter.,1999,111:179-327.
[12]Keilis-Borok V,Ismail-Zadeh A,Kossobekov V,et al.Non-linear dynamics of the lithosphere and intermediateterm earthquake prediction[J].Tectonophysics,2001,338:247-260.
[13]Sammis C G,Smith S W.Seismic Cycles and the Evolution ofstess Correlation in Cellular Automation Models of FiniteFault Networks[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:307-334.
[14]Bowman D D,King G C P.Accelerating seismicity and stressaccumulation before large earthquakes[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,2001,28(21):4039-4042.
[15]Smith S W,Sammis C G.Revisiting the Tidal Activation ofSeismicity with a Damage Mechanics and Friction Point ofView[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2004,161:2393-2404.
[16]Rundle J B,lein W,Tiampo K,et al.Linear pattern dynam-ics in nonlinear threshold systems[J].Phys.Rev.,2000,E61:2418-2431.
[17]Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,Klein W,et al.Self-organization inleaky threshold systems:The influence of near-mean field dy-namics and its implications for earthquakes,neuro-biology,and forecasting[J].Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.USA,2002,99:2514-2521.
[18]Rundle J B,D L Turcotte,R Shcherbakov,et al.Statisticalphysics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics ofearthquake fault systems[J].Rev.Geophys.,2003,41(4):1019,doi:10.1029/2003RG000135.
[19]Tiampo K F,Rundle J B,McGinnis S A,et al.Pattern dy-namics and forecast methods in seismically active regions[J].Pure and applied geophysics,2002,159(10):2429-2467.
[20]King G C P,Cocco M.Fault interaction by elastic stresschanges:New clues from earthquake sequences[J].adv.Geophys.,2001,44:1-38.
[21]Yu H Z,Shen Z K,Zhu Q Y,et al.Increasing critical sensi-tivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earth-quakes with identified stress accumulation pattern[J].Tec-tonophysics,2006,428(1-4):87-94.
[22]Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,et al.Load-Unload ResponseRatio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release critical re-gion scaling and earthquake prediction[J].Pure Appl.Geo-phys.,2002,159:2511-2523.
[23]Yin X C,Yu H Z,Kukshenko V,et al.Load-Unload Re-sponse ratio(LURR),Accelerating Energy release(AER)and State Vector evolution as precursors to failure of rockspecimens.[J]Pure Appl.Geophys.,2004,161:2405-2436.
[24]Holliday J R,Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,et al.Systematic pro-cedural and sensitivity analysis of the Pattern Informaticsmethod for forecasting large(M>5)earthquake events inSouthern California[J].Pure And Applied Geophysics,2005,163(11-12):2433-2454.
[25]Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,et al.A New Approach toEarthquake Prediction———The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1995,145:701-715.
[26]Yin X C,Wang Y C,Peng K Y,et al.Development of aNew Approach to Earthquake Prediction———Load/unloadResponse Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157:2365-2383.
[27]Yin X C,Zhang L P,Zhang H H,et al.LURR's TwentyYears and its Perspective[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2006,163:2317-2341.
[28]杨林章,何世海,郗饮文,等.用潮汐体应变加响比研究岩石弹性性质变化[J].中国地震,1994,10(增刊):90-94.
[29]李旭东.倾斜固体潮的响应比研究[J].地壳形变与地震,1995,15(3):67-73.
[30]陈棋福,尹祥础,马丽.加卸载响应比的自然分布[J].中国地震,1996,12:270-273.
[31]曾小苹,续春荣,赵明,等.地球磁场对太阳风的加卸载响应与地震[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1996,17(1):49-53.
[32]李佐唐.门源6.4级地前后加卸载响应比的异常变化[J].西北地震学报,1997,18(4):47-50.
[33]王勤彩,杜锡武,马兴国,等.大同两次中强地前应变、倾加卸载响应比异常研究[J].华北地震科学,1997,15(3):67-72.
[34]续春荣,林云芳,吕桂芳,等.地球磁场对太阳风的加卸载响应比与川滇中强地震[J].中国地震,1998,14(2):190-196.
[35]张昭栋,王秀芹,董守德.加卸载响应比在体应变固体潮中的应用[J].地震,1999,19:217-222.
[36]常克贵,高立新,张建业,等.加卸载响应比理论在包头西MS6.4地震预报中的应用[J].西北地震学报,1999,21(4):350-355.
[37]任隽,陈运平,潘纪顺,等.海南岛及其近海中强地震前加卸载响应比的变化特征[J].西北地震学报,2002,27(1):71-74.
[38]Zhang Y X,Yin X C,Peng K Y.Spatial and Temporal Vari-ation of LURR and its Implication for the Tendency of Earth-quake Occurrence in Southern California[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2004,161:2359-2367.
[39]Cochran E S,Vidale J E,Tanaka S.Earthquake tides cantrigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes[J].Science,2004,306:1164-1166.
[40]Tanaka S,Ohtake M,Sato H.Tidal triggering of earth-quakes in Japan related to the regional tectonic stress[J].Earth Planets Space,2004,56(5):511-515.
[41]尹祥础,余怀忠,等.态矢量—分析地震活动性的一种新方法[J].中国地震,2004,20(1):73-79.
[42]Yu H Z,Yin X C,Zhu Q Y,et al.State vector—a new ap-proach to prediction of the failure of brittle heterogeneousmedia and large earthquakes[J].Pure appl.geophys.,2006,153(11/12):2561-2574.
[43]Zhang Y X,Wu Y J,Yin X C,et al.Comparison BetweenLURR and State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakesin Southern California Since 1980[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,2008,165:737-748.
[44]姜彤,王伟,崔江利,等.滑坡临滑预报的态矢量方法研究[J].岩土力学,2009,30(6):1747-1752.
[45]黄显良,陈宇卫,沈小七,等.华东地区态矢量的研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2006,27(5):3-7.
[46]余怀忠,尹祥础,等.态矢量方法的实验研究[J].地震,2004,24(3):1-7.
[47]吴永加,张永仙,尹祥础.1970年以来中国大陆25次6.8级以上地震前态矢量异常特征研究[J].地震,2006,26(2):61-67.
[48]Jaume S C,Sykes L R.Evolution toward a critical point:areview of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior tolarge great earthquakes[J].Pure Appl.Geophys.,1999,155:279-306.
[49]Bufe C G,D J Varnes.Predictive modelling of the seismic cy-cle of the greater San Francisco bay region[J].J.Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9871-9883.
[50]邓起东.中国活动构造图(1:400万)[M].北京:地震出版社,2007:1-5.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心