国外地震预测预报研究的一些震例
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摘要
本文收集了国外地震预测预报研究中一些引起关注的震例,包括回溯性前兆检验的震例和实际预测预报的震例,作为一个不完整的索引,以期对国内相关领域的研究有所帮助。
We collect some examples of earthquake forecast/prediction abroad. These exampl es include both retrospective test of earthquake precursors and forward earthqua ke forecasts/predictions, causing much attention among seismologists. The data c ould be used as an index to assist the related studies in China.
We collect some examples of earthquake forecast/prediction abroad. These exampl es include both retrospective test of earthquake precursors and forward earthqua ke forecasts/predictions, causing much attention among seismologists. The data c ould be used as an index to assist the related studies in China.
引文
[1]HarrisRA.Forecastofthe1989LomaPrieta,California,earthquake.BullSeismSocAmer,1998,88:898916
[2]BiagiRF,ErminiA,KingsleySP,KhatkevichYMandGordeevEI.GroundwaterIoncontentprecursorsofstrongearthquakesinKamchatka(Russia).PureapplGeophys,2000,157:13591377
[3]KossobokovVG,RomashkovaLL,KeilisBorokVIandHealyJH.Testingearthquakepredictionalgorithms:statisticallysignificantadvancepredictionofthelargestearthquakesintheCircumPacific,1992～1997.PhysEarthPlanetInteri,1999,111:187196
[4]HarrisRA(ed.).SpecialsectionStresstriggers,stressshadows,andimplicationforseismichazard.JGeophysRes,1998,103:2434724572
[5]WyssMandMartirosyanAH.SeismicquiescencebeforetheM7,1988,Spitakearthquake,Armenia.GeophysJInt,1998,134:329340
[6]KatsumataKandKasaharaM.Precursoryseismicquiescencebeforethe1994Kurileearthquake(MW=8.3)revealedbythreeindependentseismiccatalogs.PureapplGeophys,1999,155:443470
[7]RastogiBKandMandalP.ForeshocksandnucleationofsmalltomoderatesizedKoynaearthquakes(India).BullSeismSocAmer,1999,89:829836
[8]EftaxiasK,KapirisP,PolygiannakisJ,BogrisN,KopanasJ,AntonopoulosG,PeratzakisAandHadjicontisV.Signatureofpendingearthquakefromelectromagneticanomalies.GeophysResLett,2001,28:33213324
[9]EftaxiasK,KapirisP,DologlouE,KopanasJ,BogrisN,AntonopoulosG,PeratzakisAandHadjicontisV.EManomaliesbeforetheKozaniearthquake:astudyoftheirbehaviorthroughlaboratoryexperiments.GeophysResLett,2002,29(8):doi:10.1029/2001GL013786
[10]KatsumataK,KasaharaM,OzawaSandIvashchenkoA.Afiveyearssuperslowaseismicprecursormodelforthe1994M8.3HokkaidoTohoOkilithosphericearthquakebasedontidegaugedata.GeophysResLett,2002,29(13):doi:10.1029/2002GL014982
[11]HuangQ,SobolevGAandNagaoT.CharacteristicsoftheseismicquiescenceandactivationpatternsbeforetheM=7.2Kobeearthquake,January17,1995.Tectonophysics,2001,337:99116
[12]HuangQandNagaoT.Seismicquiescencebeforethe2000M=7.3Tottoriearthquake.GeophysResLett,2002,29(12):doi:10.1029/2001GL013835
[13]HuangQ,OncelOandSobolevGA.PrecursoryseismicitychangesassociatedwiththeMW=7.41999August17Izmit(Turkey)earthquake.GeophysJInt,2002,151:235242
[14]MelbourneTIandWebbFH.Precursorytransientslipduringthe2001MW=8.4PeruearthquakesequencefromcontinuousGPS.GeophysResLett,2002,29(21):doi:10.1029/2002GL015533
[15]RichonP,SabrouxJC,HalbwachsM,VandemeulebrouckJ,PoussielgueN,TabbaghJandPunongbayanR.RadonanomalyinthesoilofTaalvolcano,thePhilippines:alikelyprecursoroftheM7.1Mindoroearthquake(1994).GeophysResLett,2003,30(9):doi:10.1029/2003GL016902
[16]KarakaisisGF.AcceleratingseismiccrustaldeformationbeforetheIzmit(NWTurkey)largemainshockof1999August17andtheevolutionofitsaftershocksequence.GeophysJInt,2003,153:103110
[17]VarnesDJ.Predictingearthquakesbyanalyzingacceleratingprecursoryseismicactivity.PureApplGeophys,1989,130:661686
[18]BufeCGandVarnesDJ.PredictivemodelingoftheseismiccycleoftheGreaterSanFranciscoBayRegion.JGeophysRes,1993,98:98719883
[19]BufeCG,NishenkoSPandVarnesDJ.SeismicitytrendsandpotentialforlargeearthquakeintheAlasksaAleatianregion.PureApplGeophys,1994,142:8399
[20]VarnesDJandBufeCG.Thecyclicandfractalseismicseriesprecedinganmb4.8earthquakeon1980February14neartheVirginIslands.GeophysJInt,1996,124:149158
[21]BrehmDJandBraileLW.IntermediatetermearthquakepredictionusingprecursoryeventsintheNewMadridseismiczone.BullSeismSocAmer,1998,88:564580
[22]BowmanDD,OuillonG,SammisCG,SornetteAandSornetteD.Anobservationaltestofthecriticalearthquakeconcept.JGeophysRes,1998,103:2435924372
[23]RobinsonR.AtestoftheprecursoryacceleratingmomentreleasemodelonsomerecentNewZealandearthquakes.GeophysJInt,2000,140:568576
[24]PapazachosBandPapazachosC.AcceleratedpreshockdeformationofbroadregionsintheAegeanarea.PureApplGeophys,2000,157:16631681
[25]BowmanDDandKingGCP.Acceleratingseismicityandstressaccumulationbeforelargeearthquakes.GeophysResLett,2001,28:40394042
[26]KarakaisisGF,PapazochosCB,SavvaaidisASandPapazachosBC.AcceleratingseismiccrustaldeformationintheNorthAegeantrough,Greece.GeophysJInt,2002,148:193200
[27]PapazochosCB,KarakaisisGF,SavvaidisASandPapazachosBC.AcceleratingseismiccrustaldeformationinthesouthAegeanarea.BullSeismSocAmer,2002,92:570580
[28]CrampinS.Developingstressmonitoringsitesusingcrossholeseismologytostressforecastthetimesandmagnitudesoffutureearthquakes.Tectonophysics,2001,338:233245
[29]CrampinSandChastinS.Areviewofshearwavesplittinginthecrackcriticalcrust.GeophysJInt,2003,155:221240
[30]CrampinS,VoltiTandStef偄nssonR.Asuccessfullystressforecastearthquake.GeophysJInt,1999,138:F1F5
[31]SeherTandMainIG.Astatisticalevaluationofa'stressforecast'earthquake.GeophysJInt,2004,157:187193
[32]CrampinS,VoltiTandStef偄nssonR.Responseto‘Astatisticalevaluationofa‘stressforecast’earthquake’byT.Seher&I.G.Main.GeophysJInt,2004,157:194199
[33]UyedaS,AlDameghKS,DologlouEandNagaoT.SomerelationshipbetweenVANseismicelectricsignals(SES)andearthquakeparameters.Tectonophysics,1999,304:4155
[2]BiagiRF,ErminiA,KingsleySP,KhatkevichYMandGordeevEI.GroundwaterIoncontentprecursorsofstrongearthquakesinKamchatka(Russia).PureapplGeophys,2000,157:13591377
[3]KossobokovVG,RomashkovaLL,KeilisBorokVIandHealyJH.Testingearthquakepredictionalgorithms:statisticallysignificantadvancepredictionofthelargestearthquakesintheCircumPacific,1992～1997.PhysEarthPlanetInteri,1999,111:187196
[4]HarrisRA(ed.).SpecialsectionStresstriggers,stressshadows,andimplicationforseismichazard.JGeophysRes,1998,103:2434724572
[5]WyssMandMartirosyanAH.SeismicquiescencebeforetheM7,1988,Spitakearthquake,Armenia.GeophysJInt,1998,134:329340
[6]KatsumataKandKasaharaM.Precursoryseismicquiescencebeforethe1994Kurileearthquake(MW=8.3)revealedbythreeindependentseismiccatalogs.PureapplGeophys,1999,155:443470
[7]RastogiBKandMandalP.ForeshocksandnucleationofsmalltomoderatesizedKoynaearthquakes(India).BullSeismSocAmer,1999,89:829836
[8]EftaxiasK,KapirisP,PolygiannakisJ,BogrisN,KopanasJ,AntonopoulosG,PeratzakisAandHadjicontisV.Signatureofpendingearthquakefromelectromagneticanomalies.GeophysResLett,2001,28:33213324
[9]EftaxiasK,KapirisP,DologlouE,KopanasJ,BogrisN,AntonopoulosG,PeratzakisAandHadjicontisV.EManomaliesbeforetheKozaniearthquake:astudyoftheirbehaviorthroughlaboratoryexperiments.GeophysResLett,2002,29(8):doi:10.1029/2001GL013786
[10]KatsumataK,KasaharaM,OzawaSandIvashchenkoA.Afiveyearssuperslowaseismicprecursormodelforthe1994M8.3HokkaidoTohoOkilithosphericearthquakebasedontidegaugedata.GeophysResLett,2002,29(13):doi:10.1029/2002GL014982
[11]HuangQ,SobolevGAandNagaoT.CharacteristicsoftheseismicquiescenceandactivationpatternsbeforetheM=7.2Kobeearthquake,January17,1995.Tectonophysics,2001,337:99116
[12]HuangQandNagaoT.Seismicquiescencebeforethe2000M=7.3Tottoriearthquake.GeophysResLett,2002,29(12):doi:10.1029/2001GL013835
[13]HuangQ,OncelOandSobolevGA.PrecursoryseismicitychangesassociatedwiththeMW=7.41999August17Izmit(Turkey)earthquake.GeophysJInt,2002,151:235242
[14]MelbourneTIandWebbFH.Precursorytransientslipduringthe2001MW=8.4PeruearthquakesequencefromcontinuousGPS.GeophysResLett,2002,29(21):doi:10.1029/2002GL015533
[15]RichonP,SabrouxJC,HalbwachsM,VandemeulebrouckJ,PoussielgueN,TabbaghJandPunongbayanR.RadonanomalyinthesoilofTaalvolcano,thePhilippines:alikelyprecursoroftheM7.1Mindoroearthquake(1994).GeophysResLett,2003,30(9):doi:10.1029/2003GL016902
[16]KarakaisisGF.AcceleratingseismiccrustaldeformationbeforetheIzmit(NWTurkey)largemainshockof1999August17andtheevolutionofitsaftershocksequence.GeophysJInt,2003,153:103110
[17]VarnesDJ.Predictingearthquakesbyanalyzingacceleratingprecursoryseismicactivity.PureApplGeophys,1989,130:661686
[18]BufeCGandVarnesDJ.PredictivemodelingoftheseismiccycleoftheGreaterSanFranciscoBayRegion.JGeophysRes,1993,98:98719883
[19]BufeCG,NishenkoSPandVarnesDJ.SeismicitytrendsandpotentialforlargeearthquakeintheAlasksaAleatianregion.PureApplGeophys,1994,142:8399
[20]VarnesDJandBufeCG.Thecyclicandfractalseismicseriesprecedinganmb4.8earthquakeon1980February14neartheVirginIslands.GeophysJInt,1996,124:149158
[21]BrehmDJandBraileLW.IntermediatetermearthquakepredictionusingprecursoryeventsintheNewMadridseismiczone.BullSeismSocAmer,1998,88:564580
[22]BowmanDD,OuillonG,SammisCG,SornetteAandSornetteD.Anobservationaltestofthecriticalearthquakeconcept.JGeophysRes,1998,103:2435924372
[23]RobinsonR.AtestoftheprecursoryacceleratingmomentreleasemodelonsomerecentNewZealandearthquakes.GeophysJInt,2000,140:568576
[24]PapazachosBandPapazachosC.AcceleratedpreshockdeformationofbroadregionsintheAegeanarea.PureApplGeophys,2000,157:16631681
[25]BowmanDDandKingGCP.Acceleratingseismicityandstressaccumulationbeforelargeearthquakes.GeophysResLett,2001,28:40394042
[26]KarakaisisGF,PapazochosCB,SavvaaidisASandPapazachosBC.AcceleratingseismiccrustaldeformationintheNorthAegeantrough,Greece.GeophysJInt,2002,148:193200
[27]PapazochosCB,KarakaisisGF,SavvaidisASandPapazachosBC.AcceleratingseismiccrustaldeformationinthesouthAegeanarea.BullSeismSocAmer,2002,92:570580
[28]CrampinS.Developingstressmonitoringsitesusingcrossholeseismologytostressforecastthetimesandmagnitudesoffutureearthquakes.Tectonophysics,2001,338:233245
[29]CrampinSandChastinS.Areviewofshearwavesplittinginthecrackcriticalcrust.GeophysJInt,2003,155:221240
[30]CrampinS,VoltiTandStef偄nssonR.Asuccessfullystressforecastearthquake.GeophysJInt,1999,138:F1F5
[31]SeherTandMainIG.Astatisticalevaluationofa'stressforecast'earthquake.GeophysJInt,2004,157:187193
[32]CrampinS,VoltiTandStef偄nssonR.Responseto‘Astatisticalevaluationofa‘stressforecast’earthquake’byT.Seher&I.G.Main.GeophysJInt,2004,157:194199
[33]UyedaS,AlDameghKS,DologlouEandNagaoT.SomerelationshipbetweenVANseismicelectricsignals(SES)andearthquakeparameters.Tectonophysics,1999,304:4155
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